ESTONIA: SURVEY OF IRAQ DEPLOYMENT REQUIREMENTS

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 TALLINN 000102 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/NB KATHERINE GARRY E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2018 TAGS: MARR MOPS PREL IZ EN SUBJECT: ESTONIA: SURVEY OF IRAQ DEPLOYMENT REQUIREMENTS Classified by: ADCM Jessica Adkins for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d) REF: STATE 2310 ¶1. (S) In response to reftel, post submits the following responses to the questions posed: ¶A. (S) WHAT ARE UROPEAN LEADERS' LONG-TERM (I.E., BEYOND 2008) PLANS FOR THEIR FORCES AND OTHER EFFORTS IN IRAQ? (S) While the Government of Estonia (GOE) has maintained its strong political commitment to partnership in Iraq, it has sent out mixed signals on plans to maintain current deployment levels past 2008. Prime Minister Andrus Ansip and Foreign Minister Urmas Paet consistently assert that Estonian troops will stay in Iraq for as long as they are needed. FM Paet told the Ambassador on February 25 that while domestic debate over Iraq is 'tough, of course Estonia will stay.' The FM added that it is just a question of what form the Estonian presence will take (e.g. current deployment, as assistance provider.) (S) Defense Minister Jaak Aaviksoo has publicly supported the Iraq mission, but has also stated that Estonia's presence in Iraq is not an open-ended commitment and that Estonia has no intention of extending the mission beyond ¶2008. However, in a recent article appearing in the Estonian press, the DefMin said that ties between domestic security and development in the Middle-East necessitate that we continue to participate in working out solutions there. (S) MOD interlocutors have told us that even if the GOE withdraws combat troops from Iraq, the GOE may seek to remain engaged in Iraq by committing more staff officers in support of the NATO training mission. ¶B. (S) WHICH, IF ANY, EUROPEAN PARTNERS PLAN ON HAVING FORCES IN IRAQ DURING 2008 AND BEYOND? (S) See response to question 1A and 1C, above and below. ¶C. (S) WHAT ARE THE PROSPECTIVE FORCE SIZES, AND WHAT ROLE DO THEY PLAN TO PLAY IN-COUNTRY, TO INCLUDE COMBAT OPERATIONS, BASE PROTECTION, TRAINING, AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE? (S) (Response to B and C jointly): Estonia can be expected to maintain military forces in Iraq through 2008. Currently, the 34-member Infantry Platoon, designated ESTPLA -16 for this deployment, is the tenth, six-month rotation of Estonian troops serving in Iraq. ESTPLA-16 is assigned to the 1st Squadron, 7th Calvary Regiment and is conducting counterinsurgency operations in the Saba Al Boor area. ¶D. (S) WHAT NON-MILITARY CONTRIBUTIONS, SUCH AS ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE, DO THE EUROPEAN COUNTRIES PLAN TO UNDERTAKE IN 2008 AND BEYOND? (S) Estonia is unlikely to make any substantial economic contributions to Iraq this year. Many Estonia political leaders have repeatedly stated that current foreign assistance priorities are Afghanistan, Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova. Additionally, Estonia recently committed USD 1 million in assistance to the Palestinian Authority. ¶E. (S) PLEASE PROVIDE ANY INSIGHT INTO WHICH COUNTRIES MIGHT BE RESPONSIVE TO INCENTIVES FROM THE U.S. WHAT FORMS MIGHT THESE INCENTIVES TAKE? (S) The small size of the Estonian military and a looming recruitment crisis (driven by rising private sector wages and salaries) mean that sustaining the current level of military forces in Iraq will be very difficult, regardless of what incentives might be offered. ¶F. (S) WHAT ARE THE LEGAL AUTHORITIES THAT THESE COUNTRIES NEED IN ORDER TO CONTINUE TO OPERATE IN IRAQ? (S) All previous decisions made by the GOE on Iraq deployment have been drafted by the cabinet and required parliamentary approval. The GOE and Estonian Parliament have consistently linked Estonia's ongoing participation in TALLINN 00000102 002 OF 003 Iraq to renewal of UNSC authorization. The linkage is specifically cited in the Government's coalition agreement. The GOE has said it does not believe it can justify participation in Iraq politically without an UNSCR. ¶G. (S) HOW MIGHT DOMESTIC ELECTIONS HELD BY SOME OF THE EUROPEAN PARTNERS IN 2008 AFFECT THEIR CONTRIBUTIONS IN IRAQ? (S) The Estonian public does not strongly support the Iraq war. Parliamentary elections, which are held every 4 years, were last held in March 2007. The next election will be local elections and elections for the European Parliament in 2009. It is likely that politicians will not want their stance on involvement in Iraq (absent a UNSCR) to become a central campaign topic. ¶H. (S) ARE ANY EUROPEAN COUNTRIES LOOKING FOR WAYS TO BECOME MORE INVOLVED ON IRAQ' IF SO, WHAT WAYS ARE THEY CONSIDERING AND WHY? IF NOT, WHY? (S) See paragraph A. ¶I. (S) WHAT DO EUROPEAN LEADERS VIEW AS THEIR INTERESTS AT STAKE IN IRAQ? (S) The Estonian military places an extremely high value on the experience its soldiers are gaining in Iraq. Unlike the other missions in which Estonians participate, the mission in Iraq affords them the opportunity to work shoulder-to-shoulder with American troops. Even though the GOE has identified Afghanistan as its priority mission, some senior members of the Estonian military are worried that after Iraq, there will not be any opportunities to work as closely with U.S. forces. This sentiment would likely be taken into account if the GOE is faced with a decision on continuing a military presence in Iraq after ¶2008. ¶J. (S) WHAT INVESTMENT OR CONTRACT OPPORTUNITIES ARE EUROPEAN LEADERS LOOKING FOR IN IRAQ? (S) No information available at this time. ¶K. (S) WHAT DO EUROPEAN LEADERS VIEW AS CONSTRAINTS TO THEIR GREATER INVOLVEMENT IN IRAQ? (S) The GOE currently has almost about 10 percent of its land forces deployed in international operations (including Iraq, Afghanistan, Kosovo, Bosnia and Lebanon.) Starting in January 2008, Estonian will provide 55 troops to the EU Nordic Battle Group. Estonia has also committed to provide 250 soldiers to support the NATO Response Force (NRF-14) in ¶2010. Absent significant structural changes within the Estonian Defense Forces, it is highly unlikely that the GOE will have enough soldiers to staff all of these commitments. If forced to make a decision on which mission from which to withdraw, it is post's opinion that Iraq would be the first mission the GOE would look to draw down. Estonian Defense Forces interlocutors have argued that, in the strictly tactical sense, pulling a platoon out of Iraq would have less of a negative impact then pulling a company out of combat operations in Afghanistan. ¶L. (S) HOW DO THE EUROPEANS VIEW THE SECURITY SITUATION IN IRAQ' DO THEY BELIEVE IT IS GETTING BETTER, WORSE, OR STAYING THE SAME' IF BETTER, HOW LONG DO THEY BELIEVE THE IMPROVED SITUATION WILL LAST? (S) Politicians have taken notice of improvements in the last few months since the surge began. In his address to the Parliament February 21 on Estonian foreign policy priorities, FM Paet said the increase in U.S. troops along with serious U.S. diplomatic efforts has made 'noteworthy progress' in Iraq. ¶M. (S) HOW MIGHT EUROPEAN THREAT ASSESSMENT AFFECT CALCULATIONS ABOUT GREATER ENGAGEMENT? (S) Concerns over troop shortages and the inability to fulfill other military commitments are more important elements than threat assessments in terms of Estonia's calculations concerning greater engagement. ¶N. (S) DO THE CURRENT EUROPEAN PARTNERS VIEW A BETTER TALLINN 00000102 003 OF 003 SECURITY SITUATION AS A REASON TO PULL OUT OF IRAQ? (S) Estonian political leaders have made no comments indicating that they view an improved security situation as a reason to pull out of Iraq. ¶O. (S) PLEASE PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO WHAT WILL BE THE FUTURE LEVELS OF ECONOMIC/HUMANITARIAN AID FROM EUROPEAN CAPITALS TO IRAQ? WILL IT BE INCREASING, DECREASING, OR STAYING CONSTANT? (S) No information available at this time. ¶P. (S) WHAT UPCOMING EUROPEAN MEETINGS INDICATE POSSIBLE INCREASED INVOLVEMENT IN IRAQ? (S) No information available at this time. ¶Q. (S) WHAT ARE EUROPEAN GOVERNMENT REACTIONS TO CURRENT PUBLIC SENTIMENTS REGARDING IRAQ? (S) The Estonian public does not strongly support Estonian participation in Iraq. The Center Party, Estonia's largest opposition party, has tried to gain political traction by opposing the Iraq mission ' but was unable to block approval of a one year extension of Estonia's mandate in December 2007. However, MFA and MOD contacts have suggested that it will be a much tougher battle to gain enough votes to renew the mandate in 2009, even with an UNSCR. ¶R. (S) ARE EUROPEAN COUNTRIES LOOKING FOR A COHESIVE EUROPEAN IRAQ POLICY OR IS IRAQ A BILATERAL ISSUE SUBJECT TO INTERNAL PRIORITIES? (S) Estonia regards Iraq primarily as a bilateral issue, but it is sensitive to the European perspective. Even though Estonia relishes the opportunity to work side by side with American troops that their participation in Iraq affords them, government officials repeatedly state that they will not allow Estonia to become the only partner to remain in Iraq. PHILLIPS