TAIWAN LOSES ANOTHER DIPLOMATIC PARTNER: MALAWI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000072 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/15/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV MI TW SUBJECT: TAIWAN LOSES ANOTHER DIPLOMATIC PARTNER: MALAWI SWITCHES RECOGNITION TO BEIJING REF: TAIPEI 00017 Classified By: AIT Deputy Director Robert S. Wang, Reasons: 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary. Taiwan on January 14 terminated its 42-year diplomatic relationship with Malawi after the southeastern African country informed Taipei it had switched diplomatic recognition to Beijing. This loss reduces the number of countries that recognize Taiwan to 23, down from 29 when President Chen Shui-bian took office in 2000. MOFA said the switch was a "grave insult" to the people of Taiwan, coming after President Chen had embarked on a trip to Central America. In a media interview, Vice President Annette Lu suggested that Foreign Minister James Huang should consider resigning to take responsibility for this latest loss, the third during his tenure. End Summary. And Now There Are Twenty-three -------------- ¶2. (C) Lilongwe's switch of diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing was widely expected, especially after Malawi forced FM Huang to scrap plans for a last-ditch trip to try to persuade Malawi leaders to stick with Taiwan. This development followed media reports that China had offered Malawi a very large aid deal and that Malawian ministers had traveled to Beijing on December 28 to seek formal ties with China. These reports were partially substantiated when FM Joyce Banda announced on January 14 that Malawi and China were establishing diplomatic relations retroactive to December 28, 2007. ¶3. (C) Reacting angrily to the switch, Taiwan's Foreign Ministry stated that despite Taipei's assistance and friendship over the past 42 years, the Malawian government has "shown its true colors by establishing ties with China and even stooping so low as to agree to China's request to make the announcement at a time President Chen Shui-bian is on an official visit overseas." Calling Malawi's conduct "insulting," Taiwan's Foreign Ministry also condemned China for "restricting Taiwan's space on the international stage by enticing allies with monetary incentives to sever diplomatic ties." Speaking in Guatemala, President Chen stressed that Taiwan cannot allow itself to be cowed by China and must resolutely enter international society, pressing ahead with the UN referendum to express Taiwan's voice to China. ¶4. (C) Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Frank Hsieh likened the timing of the announcement to "rubbing salt in our wounds." Nationalist Party (KMT) presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou said China's crackdown on Taiwan in the international community will have a negative impact on the development of cross-Strait relations. However, Ma also criticized the DPP government for promoting "dollar diplomacy" and "beacon-fire diplomacy" (i.e., diplomacy which triggers a strong PRC reaction) at the sacrifice of Taiwan's international image. How Low Can it Go? -------------- ¶5. (C) While Taiwan has been expecting Malawi to switch recognition sometime in January, it has also been worrying about its relations with the Marshall Islands, Panama, and some other countries in recent months. MOFA's Deputy Director of East Asia and Pacific Affairs Yu Te-sheng told AIT on January 11 that Taipei is worried about the Marshall Islands (MI) because the MI's newly-elected President Litoka Tomeing visited China last year, was quoted as saying he would make the switch, and is surrounded by "surrogates of China." However, there have been reports that President TAIPEI 00000072 002 OF 002 Tomeing has since accepted President Chen's invitation to make a state visit to Taiwan. Likewise, Panama, where China is the Panama Canal's best customer, is also thought to be considering a shift. ¶6. (C) President Chen's current trip to attend Guatemalan President Alvaro Colom's inauguration is intended in part to shore up relations with Central American partners. According to early press reports, Chen has secured reassurances from Guatemala and El Salvador. He is scheduled to have a pull-aside meeting with the Panamanian president that will be watched closely by observers in Taipei. ¶7. (C) National Chengchi University Professor Yen Chen-shen told AIT that he did not expect Malawi's switch to have a short-term "domino effect" in Africa, but he noted that the loss would have symbolic importance because Malawi is democratic and one of Taiwan's oldest diplomatic partners. After losing Senegal in 2005, Chad in 2006, and now Malawi, Taiwan is left with only four diplomatic partners in Africa (Burkina Faso, Sao Tome, Swaziland, and Gambia) and 23 worldwide (down from 29 when President Chen took office in 2000). Among the four remaining African partners, Professor Yen said, the African country most likely to derecognize Taiwan is Sao Tome because of that country's potential oil reserves, a possible upcoming change in government, and the relative newness of its ties with Taiwan. VP Suggests Huang Should Resign -------------- ¶8. (C) Vice President Annette Lu, who is no fan of James Huang and was unhappy when he was appointed foreign minister in 2006, suggested in a media interview that Taiwan's foreign ministers should take responsibility for diplomatic losses, noting that three such losses had occurred under Huang. Huang, in Guatemala with the President, said he would be willing to give up his job immediately if anyone else was interested in taking up the difficult responsibilities. Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) The loss of Malawi comes at a particularly sensitive time politically. The ruling DPP suffered a humiliating defeat in legislative elections on January 12 and the DPP and opposition KMT are preparing for a key presidential election on March 22. The break with Malawi allows the DPP to play up for political gain the issue of PRC international pressure, while the KMT must tread carefully to avoid criticism for its support for closer relations with China. YOUNG