Taipei Economic Brief for December 2007

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 TAIPEI 000007 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE PLEASE PASS USTR STATE FOR EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/EP USTR FOR KATZ AND STRATFORD USDOC FOR 3132/USFCS/OIO/EAP TREASURY FOR OASIA/TTYANG AND HAARSAGER TREASURY ALSO PASS TO FEDERAL RESERVE/BOARD OF GOVERNORS, SAN FRANCISCO FRB/TERESA CURRAN, AND NEW YORK FRB MARI BOLIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EINV EFIN ECON SENV TW SUBJECT: Taipei Economic Brief for December 2007 ¶1. (U) Summary. This cable summarizes selected December 2007 economic events in Taiwan. Better than expected economic performance led to upward adjustment of Taiwan's estimated 2007 real GDP growth which, however, will slow in 2008 due to effects of U.S. sub-prime mortgage situation and higher import costs....Taiwan authorities set ambitious economic development goals for 2008 and increased rent subsidy funding for investment projects....The 2008 central budget was enacted before the legal deadline of December 31....Taiwan's central bank raised interest rates to fight inflation....Second direct cross-Strait charter flight was launched one and a half year after the first one....The National Communications Commission Organization Law was amended to comply with Taiwan's Constitution....Legislation authorizes taking foreigners' bio-data at the time of entry....Insurance firms' overseas investment limit raised....Restrictions on foreign mutual funds relaxed....Walden International of the U.S. and JSR of Japan will increase investment in Taiwan....TECO becomes first to go into software OEM....END SUMMARY. Performance Better Than Expected -------------- ¶2. (U) Unexpectedly strong economic performance in the second half of 2007 has prompted both domestic and foreign forecasters to raise Taiwan's 2007 real GDP growth estimates to 5.2-5.5%, up from the below 4.5% rate predicted three-six months earlier. Year-on-year export growth increased from 7.6% in the fourth quarter of 2006 to 14.4% in October-November. Meanwhile, growth in export orders rose from 9.6% to 17.6%, and growth in manufacturing production accelerated from 0.5% to a three-and-a-half-year high of nearly 15%. Unemployment was 3.87%, the second-lowest for the month of November over the past seven years. Three tropical storms during August-October, together with higher import costs for crude oil, grains and dairy products, drove up Taiwan's inflation rate from nil early this year to 5.3% in October and 4.8% in November. Economic Growth Slows in 2008 -------------- ¶3. (U) Most Taiwan forecasters anticipate that Taiwan's economic growth in 2008 will slow to below 4.5%. They believe that the U.S. sub-prime mortgage problem, as well as higher international prices for oil and grains, will dampen world economic performance and reduce demand for products from the export-oriented economy of Taiwan. The Taiwan Research Institute (TRI) predicted that real export growth in 2008 will drop to 3.96% from an estimated 7.2% in 2007, and the Academia Sinica expected the growth rate will decline to just above 3%. Official Goals for 2008 -------------- ¶4. (U) Despite slow growth prospects for next year, Taiwan authorities still set optimistic economic development goals for 2008: economic growth at 4.8%, unemployment below 3.8%, and inflation less than 2%. Per capita GDP will increase from 2007's estimated US$16,768 to US$18,000. To achieve these goals, the Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEA) set a 7.3% growth target for private manufacturing investment, mainly in information technology (IT) and electronics. The MOEA will increase rent subsidies for investment projects in industrial parks. Meanwhile, the Council of Labor Affairs will increase the monthly subsidy for employment of a jobless worker from NT$5,000 to NT$10,000 (US$307),effective January 1, 2008. The length of the subsidy will be 12 months. 2008 Private Investment Target: NT$1.08 Trillion -------------- --- ¶5. (U) The MOEA will raise its private manufacturing investment target to NT$1.08 trillion (US$32.8 billion),up 7.3% from the 2007 target of NT$1.006 trillion. According to the MOEA's projection, TAIPEI 00000007 002 OF 004 investment in metals and electronic tools will enjoy the highest growth in 2008, while IT and electronics will contribute 51% of 2008 private investment, including NT$220 billion (US$6.77 billion) in flat panels. Chi Mei Optoelectronics will start building an 8th generation plant, and AUO will launch a 7.5 generation plant project. A target of NT$260 billion (US$8 billion) is set for the semiconductor industry, mainly new 12-inch fabs, including one to be built by Chunghwa Picture Tubes in central Taiwan. A target of NT$296.9 billion (US$ 9.1 billion) has been set for the metals and electronic tools industry, up 23% over the 2007 target, mainly due to strong demand for tool machinery. Subsidy for Investment in Industrial Parks -------------- ¶6. (U) The MOEA will increase its rent subsidy funding for investment projects in industrial parks. The program, nicknamed the "006688 Program" (i.e., rent free for the first two years, 40% discount for the next two years, and 20% discount for the fifth and sixth years),has attracted many investors, including overseas Taiwan firms. With funding of NT$110 billion (US$3.38 billion),the program has attracted 851 companies to rent 590 hectares of land in industrial parks, which has generated NT$355 billion (US$10.95 billion) in investment and created 65,000 jobs. The MOEA will add NT$20 billion (US$615.5 million) to the program. Companies currently considering using the 006688 Program include Fujitsu, which is planning an upcoming WiMAX project, and a Taiwan optoelectronics firm. 2008 Central Budget Enacted before Legal Deadline -------------- -------------- ¶7. (U) Taiwan's Legislative Yuan (LY) passed the 2008 central budget in late December, for the first time in eight years complying with the law to enact the budget bill before the end of a year. The LY cut proposed expenditure by 0.8% to NT$ 1,686 billion (US$51.9 billion),and the 0.8% cut was the smallest in past ten years. The LY also approved the budget for military procurement projects, including four sets of Patriot III missiles and funding to assess submarine procurement. The six sets of Patriot III missiles require funding of NT$21.9 billion (US$673.8 million). Funding to assess submarine procurement is NT$2 billion (US$61.5 million). Funding for P3C anti-submarine aircraft is NT$1.7 billion (US$52.3 million). CBT Raised Interest Rates to Fight Inflation -------------- ¶8. (U) The Central Bank of ROC (Taiwan) raised its benchmark rates by 0.125 percentage points in an effort to fight inflation, which rose in the second half of this year. The MOEA helped fight inflation by freezing gasoline prices, although the cumulative increase in crude oil import costs in November crossed the 12% threshold for the upward adjustment of gasoline prices. During August-October, three tropical storms pushed up produce prices by 50-100%, with some vegetable prices even tripling. Produce prices declined to normal levels in late November. Crude oil import costs, however, rose to over US$90 per barrel, and grain import prices were increasing steadily. Consequently, Taiwan's inflation rate measured by the consumer price index rose from almost nil in early 2007 to 5.3% in October and 4.8% in November. Second Direct Cross-Strait Cargo Flight -------------- ¶9. (U) State-owned China Airlines (CAL) launched a second round of direct cross-Strait cargo flights on December 12. Contracted by ProMOS Technologies of Taiwan, CAL transported eight-inch silicon wafer manufacturing equipment to Chongqing, China. The first direct cross-Strait cargo flights took place in July 2006. TAIPEI 00000007 003 OF 004 NCC Organization Amended to Comply with Constitution -------------- -------------- ¶10. (U) The LY completed the third and final reading of amendments to the National Communications Commission (NCC) Organization Law in late December. According to the legislation, NCC Commissioners shall be nominated by the Premier and approved by the Legislative Yuan. The number of NCC commissioners will be reduced to seven from 13, and a single political party may not hold over half of the total Commissioner seats. All NCC members have tendered their resignations effective January 1, 2008. Late last year, the Supreme Court handed down a judgment that the method for selecting commissioners is unconstitutional and that the current NCC shall cease to function in January 2008. Before amendment, the National Communications Commission Organization Law prescribed that NCC members shall be proportionally allocated to political parties based on the number of seats in the LY. Anti-terrorism Legislation -------------- ¶11. (U) The LY passed the third and final reading of a bill to amend the Immigration Law. The legislation authorized Taiwan's Immigration Administration to take bio-data (including fingerprints) of foreigners at the time of entry. A bio-data identification system will be implemented in 2009. The legislation will permit victims of domestic abuse to continue staying in Taiwan after the court issues a protection order. The amended law will prohibit cross-border marriage brokerage. Insurance Firms' Overseas Investment Limit Raised -------------- -------------- ¶12. (U) The Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC) raised the limit on an insurance company's offshore investment from 35% to 45% of total insurance funds if the company's paid-in capital exceeds 300% of the risk-based assets. The FSC also removed a ban on offshore real estate investment by insurance firms which, however, is subject to a cap of 10% of net worth. The liberalization measures will increase Taiwan insurance sector's offshore investment by an estimated NT$700 billion (US$21.5 billion) and, therefore, drive up Taiwan's long-term interest rates. Restrictions on Foreign Mutual Funds -------------- ¶13. (U) The FSC relaxed restrictions on foreign mutual funds in Taiwan. The ceiling limit on financial derivatives held by a foreign mutual fund was raised from 15% of net worth to 40%. The FSC also removed a ban on foreign mutual funds trading in financial derivatives. With the relaxations, many additional foreign mutual funds may be sold in Taiwan. Walden International to Increase Taiwan Investment -------------- -------------- ¶14. (U) During its 20th anniversary ceremony, Walden International, a venture capital firm based in San Francisco, announced that it will increase its investment in Taiwan's biotech and high-tech industries by NT$10 billion (US$308 million). Walden, which operates a capital fund worth nearly US$2 billion, has been active in Asian markets. Walden currently provides capital funding to several prominent Taiwan semiconductor companies (including Powerchip Semiconductor and TICP) and IT manufacturers such as ZyXel, E-Ten, and Hitron Technologies. Walden, one of Taiwan's venture capital pioneers, formed its subsidiary in Taiwan in 1987. JSR's Expansion Project -------------- ¶15. (U) JSR of Japan, the world's largest producer of color resists for TFT-LCD screens, announced it will increase its investment in the Central Taiwan Science Park (CTSP). It will add production TAIPEI 00000007 004 OF 004 lines for semiconductor and optoelectronics materials. JSR invested nearly NT$800 million (US$24.6 million) in 2006 to set up JSR Micro, the company's Taiwan subsidiary located at CTSP, to supply photo spacers, protective film and alignment film to Taiwan's major flat panel makers, including AUO, Chi Mei Optoelectronics, Hannstar, and Chunghwa Picture Tubes. During the first stage of its factory launch, JSR Micro focused mainly on the production of color resists, where it holds 60% of the Taiwan market. Its presence in Taiwan has given such companies as AUO and Chi Mei quick access to materials, allowing them to enjoy a competitive edge in the world market. First Software OEM in Taiwan -------------- ¶16. (U) TECO Group, a Taiwanese multinational business conglomerate, will enter an OEM software joint venture with Intec Group, Japan's second-largest IT services provider, and Nihon Technos, a major human resources company in Japan. Recently, TECO signed an agreement with these two Japanese firms to form Dongyingte International, which will become the first OEM software provider for Japanese companies. The initial investment will be NT$56 million (US$1.7 million). TECO will contribute 60% of the capital, while Intec Group and Nihon Technos each hold a 20% stake. The joint venture is expected to bring in earnings of NT$30 million (US$0.9 million) from the Japanese software OEM market during its first year, and achieve yearly revenues of NT$100 million (US$3 million) over the next four years. The joint venture will focus on software applications for finance, banking, public institutions, medical care, and CRM (Customer Relationship Management). WANG