FORMER PREMIER SU TSENG-CHANG DISCUSSES DPP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000571

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/24/2018
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: FORMER PREMIER SU TSENG-CHANG DISCUSSES DPP
POLITICS AND CONCERNS THE KMT MAY TILT TOWARD CHINA


Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Former Premier Su Tseng-chang told the
Director on April 24 that former Vice Premier Tsai Ing-wen
hopes to win the May 18 DPP chairperson election by a wide
margin in order to have a strong mandate. The party needs to
first focus its attention on restoring its former reputation
for clean government and trustworthiness, Su said. In
addition, the DPP needs to reduce its emphasis on Taiwan
identity and increase its appeal to young people on economic
and other issues. The DPP can recover quickly if it succeeds
in reform and makes a stronger showing in the 2009 local
elections than it did in the recent presidential contest. Su
expressed concern that President-elect Ma Ying-jeou and the
incoming KMT government may tilt too quickly and too far
toward China. End Summary.


2. (C) On April 24, the Director discussed Taiwan politics
with Su Tseng-chang, former premier and the DPP's vice
presidential candidate in the March 22 presidential election.
DPP International Affairs Director Bikhim Hsiao accompanied
Su. The Director congratulated Taiwan for holding a smooth
and peaceful election, a reflection of maturing democracy.
Su noted that the DPP had accepted the election results,
congratulated the winners, and focused on an internal review
rather than criticism of the KMT. This was quite unlike the
KMT's supporters, who in 2000 and 2004 had protested and
caused turmoil because they were disgruntled with the
election results. Recalling that he had told the Director in
a previous meeting that President Chen would produce no
surprises in the period between the election and the
inauguration of the new president on May 20, Su said he had
felt safe in making this prediction because of his confidence
in the maturity of Taiwan's democracy.


3. (C) The major election defeats suffered by the DPP
provide the party an opportunity to start again from scratch,
Su suggested. On May 18, the DPP will elect a new
chairperson, who will have a great influence on the future of
the party. If the new chairperson succeeds in reform
efforts and the DPP makes a strong showing in the 2009 local
elections, the party will recover quickly. Conversely, poor
performances by the chairperson and party would have a
negative effect on DPP prospects in the 2012 LY and
presidential elections. Currently, the DPP holds 6 of the 25
city and county seats up for election in 2009. If the DPP
nominates strong candidates and can cut the 17 percentage
point margin by which the KMT won the March 22 presidential
election, then the DPP will again have hope.


4. (C) The DPP's presidential candidate in 2012 will also be
very influential, Su observed. The DPP will need a "rising
star" who can appeal to voters and compete with Ma Ying-jeou
and the KMT. However, it will be difficult for the DPP to
win the 2012 presidential election, Su acknowledged,
explaining he did not expect the rather cautious Ma Ying-jeou
to do a very poor job as president. Even if the KMT botches
the job, the DPP would have to succeed in its reforms to have
an opportunity. Nonetheless, Su pointed out, politics is
unpredictable.


5. (C) Acknowledging that a number of people had worked to
persuade former Vice Premier Tsai Ing-wen to run for party
chairperson, Su pointed out that she agreed to join the race
because she wanted the position. Her lack of experience in
party work will be an asset as well as a shortcoming, he
suggested. Although her prospects look good, she will need
to be careful because legislative Yuan (LY) member Trong
Chai, who is supported by former DPP Chairman Yu Shyi-kun, is
actively working to boost his chances to win the position.
The three-way contest will be decided by the election on May
18, not through a brokered consultation process, Su
predicted, explaining that Tsai Ing-wen wants to win the
election by a wide margin to strengthen her mandate as future
chairperson. The new chairperson will have a heavy
responsibility as well as a good opportunity, Su noted.
Although Tsai will be viewed as the party's savior if she
does well, she will be blamed if the party does poorly.

TAIPEI 00000571 002 OF 003




6. (C) If carefully managed by the DPP chairperson, the
party's factions can cooperate and compete in a benign way,
Su said. Problems arise, however, if the chairperson
tolerates inter-factional struggle or even uses one faction
against another. The new chairperson will need to stay on
top of the situation and exercise good judgment in order to
prevent inter-factional struggle. Su said the two most
important reforms the party must undertake are to restore its
reputation for being Taiwan's clean party, in contrast to the
KMT, and to restore its reputation for being trustworthy.


7. (C) Su noted that Taiwan identity now enjoys wide public
acceptance. This is reflected in the fact that all
presidential candidates, including Ma Ying-jeou, now have to
emphasize Taiwan identity. One reason for the DPP's election
defeats is that it has overplayed this theme, trying to claim
an exclusive right to Taiwan identity. Although young people
believe Taiwan is a sovereign independent country, they do
not care whether it is called the Republic of China or
Republic of Taiwan. They are more concerned about the
economy and their own futures. Rather than arguing all the
time about Taiwan identity, the DPP needs to appeal to young
people. Su noted his support for Bikhim Hsiao's recent
comments in an internal meeting that the DPP should have
confidence and develop a more inclusive concept of Taiwan
identity that would allow different people to show their love
for Taiwan in their own ways.


8. (C) Among the senior generation of DPP leaders, Chen
Shui-bian will continue to have the most influence because of
the help he has given over the years to many DPP LY members
and local party people, Su suggested. Frank Hsieh is also
continuing to operate politically, despite his words about
withdrawing from politics. By not resigning the party
chairmanship after the presidential defeat, Hsieh has broken
party tradition, Su added. Yu Shyi-kun is also trying to
increase his influence. Su expressed some disappointment
that none of the DPP mayors, magistrates, or LY members, who
represent the next generation of potential leaders, had been
willing to join the election for party chairperson. Despite
being lobbied, Kaohsiung County Magistrate Yang Chiu-hsing
had declined to run on the grounds that he did not carry
enough political weight.


9. (C) Su suggested the DPP should give the KMT cabinet a
chance and not criticize it at this stage. However, he
added, Ma missed an opportunity by not reducing the size of
the cabinet. The need to streamline the cabinet been studied
for many years, and there is general agreement on issue.
While Ma could have accomplished this before making
appointments, it will now be more difficult. Ma is at his
strongest now, but his power will gradually weaken as he
makes concession under pressure from within his own party.
Su cited the examples of Ma's failure to secure an
appropriate government post for Taiwanese campaign team
member Chan Chi-hsien, and his failure to separate the
government and the KMT by not insisting that government
officials should leave their high-level party positions.


10. (C) Su asked whether the U.S. might worry that the Ma
Ying-jeou administration could move too quickly and tilt too
far toward China. While there no concerns about Taiwan being
too pro-China under Presidents Lee Teng-hui and Chen
Shui-bian, the situation has now changed. Su noted Ma has
been saying a great deal, very early, about relations with
China. Furthermore, Ma's views differ from public opinion.
Although the people of Taiwan believe Taiwan is a sovereign
country, Ma says the Republic of China still includes the
mainland, except Mongolia.


11. (C) Su described the story of the short-lived 1895
Taiwan Republic to illustrate his concerns about Ma and the
KMT. After China ceded Taiwan to Japan but before the
arrival of the Japanese in 1895, the people of Taiwan, who
wanted self-rule, sought help from China and established a
Taiwan Republic, which even had its own postage stamps, flag,
and official seal. However, when the Japanese landed, the
Taiwan Republic President Liu Yung-fu fled back to China.

TAIPEI 00000571 003 OF 003


This was an early bitter experience of the government selling
out the people of Taiwan, Su maintained. The fear now is
that the KMT government, attracted by China's power and huge
market, will sell out Taiwan to the PRC.


12. (C) The Director stressed that the U.S. has confidence
in Taiwan's democracy and that Taiwan's leaders will have to
take public opinion into account as they craft cross-Strait
and other policies. The Director asked about Su's views on
Vice President-elect Vincent Siew's recent meeting with PRC
President Hu Jintao at the Boao Forum. It was good to have
dialogue, Su said, but he criticized Siew for using a
PRC-issued Taiwan Compatriot Travel Document. Although Hu's
words toward Taiwan sound pleasant, the problem lies in
Beijing's "principles."

Comment
--------------


13. (C) Su, who was relaxed and in good spirits, said he
plans to travel both domestically and internationally over
the coming months, including to the U.S. but not to China, in
order to learn more. Tsai Ing-wen served as vice premier
when Su was premier, and Su clearly backs her candidacy for
the party chairperson position. At this early stage, Su is
the most likely prospect to become the DPP presidential
candidate in 2012. Ma's incumbency will probably make 2012 a
very difficult contest for the DPP to win. Nonetheless, the
DPP will need a strong and credible performance in 2012 to
maintain its support base and boost its prospects in 2016 and
beyond. In a side conversation, Bikhim Hsiao confirmed that
she plans to take a "sabbatical" and travel, leaving her
current position as DPP International Affairs Director.

YOUNG