NEW TIDE FACTION ELDER WU NAI-JEN ON DPP POLITICS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000509

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/11/2018
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: NEW TIDE FACTION ELDER WU NAI-JEN ON DPP POLITICS


Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: During an April 10 meeting with the
Director, DPP New Tide faction elder Wu Nai-jen told us he
expects it will take some time for the DPP to recover from
its back-to-back election defeats earlier this year. The
party must first confront the reasons for the losses:
corruption, excessive ethnic identity politics, and economic
conditions. Wu, however, is highly critical of the DPP
post-election review currently underway, and predicted the
DPP will face another defeat in the 2009 local elections.
Only after this would a new leader emerge. He hopes the DPP
will be more realistic and treat Taiwan independence as a
long-term issue, preserving the option of independence "for
our grandchildren to decide." On the KMT, Wu expects Ma will
accomplish little in the next few years and is not worried
about the pro-unification stance of the KMT, arguing the KMT
will have to modify its cross-Strait policy if it is to
continue winning elections. End Summary.


2. (C) The Director met with New Tide faction elder Wu
Nai-jen on April 9 to discuss DPP politics following the
party's recent defeats in legislative and presidential
elections. Admitting it would take the DPP some time to
recover from the defeats, Wu nonetheless was confident that
"we will find a way." The DPP has to face the many mistakes
it made over the past eight years, he suggested. One main
reason for the DPP defeats was the corruption issue.
Although the DPP's corruption problem was no worse than that
of the KMT, many people have a negative perception of the DPP
on this issue. Overdoing the national identity issue over
the past four years was another important reason for the
DPP's electoral defeats. Although more than 60 percent of
the people agree with the DPP view on Taiwan identity, they
do not like the strident approach the DPP government has
taken on this issue.


3. (C) Wu noted that the KMT attacked the DPP heavily on the
economic situation during the campaign. Even though the
economic situation has actually been relatively good, many
people, including low-wage unskilled workers in the 40-50 age
group, feel life has become harder for them over the last
eight years. Wu doubted, however, that the situation would
improve much in the next two years. Chinese tourists will
not have the same economic impact in Taiwan that they have
had in Hong Kong. Ma's "good boy" personality, moreover,
means he will not move too far in any direction. Ma left no
memorable accomplishments from his term as Taipei mayor, Wu
argued, and he will be the same kind of president. Wu said
he was not too worried about the pro-unification stance of
KMT leaders. As long as the KMT has to win elections, it
will continue to gradually modify its cross-Strait positions.


4. (C) Wu recalled that in the early years, the DPP had
gained support in urban areas. Since 2000, however, the DPP
has gradually lost the urban areas while gaining support
among farmers. This latter development was not because of
anything the DPP had done, but rather a product of farmer and
unskilled labor anger with China. Laborers blamed their
unemployment problems on their bosses, who had left for
China. Because the KMT favored more opening to China, the
farmers and laborers shifted their support to the DPP, which
was more conservative in this regard.


5. (C) It will be some time before the DPP is again able to
win elections, Wu predicted. The DPP will probably have to
endure another defeat in local elections late next year,
because four of the six DPP magistrates and mayors are now in
their second and final term. These are the strongest DPP
candidates, but they cannot run for reelection. In coming
years, the DPP will have to depend on the generation which is
now around age 45-50. There is currently no clearly
identifiable future leader in this group, he said, but Wu
felt confident someone will emerge, especially as the first
generation of DPP leaders retires. Thus, the next party
chairman who will be elected on May 18 will be merely a
transitional leader, he said, with a real leader emerging
only after the December 2009 county magistrate and city mayor
elections.

TAIPEI 00000509 002 OF 002




6. (C) On future DPP presidential prospects, Wu told the
Director that Su Tseng-chang is the only possible DPP
candidate to run in the 2012 presidential election. Under
present circumstances, Su would not have a chance of winning,
but of course anything could happen over the next four years.
More realistically, he said, the DPP will need to look
toward the 2016 election.


7. (C) Wu expressed considerable disappointment over the
post-election review process currently underway in the DPP.
All the discussion was beside the main point, he lamented,
which should be to assess the reasons for the recent heavy
election losses, for only then can the party begin to move
forward again. The review process, however, loses focus if
all kinds of problems are brought in, he continued. For
example, advancing the party chair election by one week has
no relation to the election losses. Bringing young people
into the party is also not a core issue. The main problem is
distrust among the factions resulting from the sudden change
in party rules before the Legislative Yuan (LY) primaries
last year. This completely destroyed mutual trust within the
party, and from then on, no one trusts anyone else.


8. (C) Wu told the Director that not too many in the DPP
have been directly criticizing President Chen for the
elections losses, though it is widely understood that he
deserves most of the blame. The DPP's problem is not Chen,
however. If he were the only problem, then there would be no
problem after he steps down.


9. (C) The two names Wu had heard as being interested in
running for the party chairmanship, Trong Chai and Yen
Chin-fu, were "a joke." Thus, the party will probably have
to settle in the near term for a transitional leader.
Eventually, however, the party will need a chair who appears
strong to the public. Asked about Yeh Chu-lan, Wu said most
DPP leaders do not regard her as a capable politician. Wu
did not think Chen Shih-meng would be willing to serve,
mostly for health reasons.


10. (C) Wu told the Director that he hopes the DPP will be
more patient and realistic about Taiwan independence. There
is no reason to be impatient, he said, just let current
trends continue, since more than 60 percent of the people
already identify themselves as Taiwanese rather than Chinese.
Taiwan and the DPP should preserve the possible option of
independence "for our grandchildren to decide."

Comment
--------------


11. (C) A leader of the "New Tide" faction, Wu struck us as
more thoughtful than most of those speaking publicly about
the way forward for the DPP. How much currency his ideas
have now as the finger-pointing continues is less clear.
YOUNG