KMT'S MA YING-JEOU WINS DECISIVE VICTORY IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000421

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/24/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL CH TW
SUBJECT: KMT'S MA YING-JEOU WINS DECISIVE VICTORY IN
TAIWAN'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION; TWO UN REFERENDA FAIL

Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: The KMT's Ma Ying-jeou swept to victory with
a record-breaking 58.4 percent of the votes in Taiwan's
presidential election on March 22, beating the ruling DPP
candidate Frank Hsieh, who took 41.6 percent of the votes.
On a day when the entire island enjoyed good weather, the
election process went quite smoothly with the turnout rate at
76.3 percent, which is consistent with turnout trends for
previous presidential elections. The DPP had hoped to
improve on its dismal performance in the January Legislative
Yuan (LY) elections, but the results proved just as bad.
Observers here blame President Chen's poor performance for
the DPP's defeat, while Ma Ying-jeou was able to capitalize
on his personal popularity and a strengthened campaign
performance by the KMT focused on the economy. Both Ma and
Hsieh have stressed the need to heal the divisions in society
following a hard fought election. In press conferences, Ma
has discussed ideas for reopening cross-Strait dialogue and
indicated he is considering the possibility of
pre-inauguration travel to the U.S. and Japan. Frank Hsieh
is expected to step down as acting DPP chairman this week,
and election of a new chairman is scheduled for May 25. The
DPP and KMT referenda both failed, falling far short of the
required participation threshold, as neither the candidates
nor the public were particularly enthusiastic in promoting
them. End Summary.


2. (C) As widely expected, Ma won in northern, central, and
eastern Taiwan, but he also did surprisingly well in the
major cities of southern Taiwan, winning Kaohsiung, Tainan,
and Chiayi Cities. Of Taiwan's 25 administrative counties
and cities, Hsieh only won in the five counties of the DPP
southern heartland: Yunlin, Chiayi, Tainan, Kaohsiung and
Pingtung. Hsieh's loss in Kaohsiung City was especially
noteworthy, given his record of accomplishments and
popularity as mayor from 1998-2005. Frank Hsieh's heavy
campaigning in central Taiwan did not bear fruit. Compared
to the 2004 presidential contest, when the DPP's Chen
Shui-bian narrowly won reelection, the greatest percentage
slippages for the DPP occurred in central Taiwan (Taichung
City and County, Changhua and Nantou Counties),and in the
three northern Hakka counties (Taoyuan, Hsinchu, and Miaoli).
The DPP had also hoped to make a respectable showing in
Taipei City and County (VP candidate Su Tseng-chang was
Taipei County magistrate from 1997-2004),but won just 37
percent of the votes in the city and 39 percent in the county.


3. (C) This election is the latest in a string of defeats
for the DPP since 2005, when President Chen's family and some
senior DPP officials first became embroiled in corruption
cases. Almost all observers here place major responsibility
on President Chen for the DPP's woes, including Frank Hsieh's
defeat. In addition to the corruption problem, President
Chen and some of his top officials, including Education
Minister Tu Cheng-sheng, were widely viewed as more
interested in pursuing quixotic ideological causes than in
finding solutions for the economic and social problems faced
by ordinary people. Aided by a barrage of negative news from
pro-Blue media outlets, the KMT has succeeded in convincing
voters that President Chen and his government are corrupt and
also incompetent, especially in dealing with the economy.
While some DPP supporters fault Frank Hsieh for making fewer
campaign appearances than Chen did when he was the candidate,
no one is suggesting that anything more he could have done
would have changed the election outcome.


4. (C) Ma Ying-jeou's exceptionally strong showing should be
attributed in part to his personal popularity, which derives
from his clean image and moderate personality. Pan-Blue
politicians and supporters have rallied around Ma since 2005,
enabling the KMT to reunite the pan-Blue and make a major
comeback. Ma and the KMT ran a smart campaign that focused
effectively on economic issues and the public's widespread
desire for change. The campaign also enabled Ma, a
mainlander, to "Green" himself by spending much time in
southern Taiwan, thereby gaining greater acceptance by
Taiwanese voters who have traditionally supported the DPP.

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In campaign style, ranging from TV ad messages to T-shirts,
the KMT dramatically improved its performance by copying the
more imaginative DPP, which in the past has always enjoyed an
edge in campaigning. Also in this campaign, the KMT showed a
greater knack for crisis management, for example, quickly
apologizing and taking other steps to neutralize the effects
of a damaging incident in which four KMT legislators intruded
at Hsieh's campaign headquarters.


5. (SBU) In their respective victory and concession speeches
on Saturday evening, Ma and Hsieh both stressed the need to
restore social harmony after a hard fought election. Ma
reached out to his opponents, stressing he would be a
president for all the people, complimenting the DPP for its
contributions to Taiwan's democratic development, and saying
he would take under advisement some policies recommended by
Frank Hsieh in the campaign. Ma also emphasized the heavy
responsibilities he and the KMT would be undertaking and the
need to get to work quickly, so as not to disappoint the
expectations of the people. Hsieh congratulated Ma and
VP-elect Vincent Siew on their victory and stressed that his
personal defeat, for which he took responsibility, was not a
defeat for Taiwan's' democracy. Emphasizing that he accepted
the election results, Hsieh urged his supporters not to
protest.


6. (C) Neither Hsieh nor Ma emphasized the UN referenda in
their campaigning, and both DPP and KMT UN referenda failed
to reach the validation threshold. With 35.8 percent of
eligible voters participating in the DPP referendum (joining
the UN under the name "Taiwan") and 35.7 percent in the KMT
referendum, both fell far short of the participation
threshold required to validate a referendum (50 percent of
all eligible voters). The 36 percent participation rate on
the UN referenda represents a setback from the 45 percent
participation rate President Chen achieved with his missile
referendum in 2004. Overwhelming majorities of those who
actually voted on the two UN referenda voted in their favor,
94 percent for the DPP referendum and 87 percent for the KMT
referendum. (Note: Most of those who opposed simply opted
not to pick up the ballots.)


7. (C) The DPP encouraged its supporters to vote yes on both
the DPP and KMT referenda, while the KMT called on its
supporters to boycott the DPP referendum and did not actively
encourage them to vote for its version either. At the
polling stations we observed, voters who took referendum
ballots almost always took both ballots rather than just one
or the other, and it appears that only a small number of KMT
supporters participated in either referendum. The number
voting in favor of the DPP referendum (5.5 million) was
almost identical to the number voting for Frank Hsieh (5.4
million).


8. (SBU) In press conferences Ma held on March 23, he
indicated he was considering the possibility of visits to the
U.S. and Japan prior to his inauguration on May 20. Ma also
said he accepted the "1992 consensus" of "one China,
different interpretations," and that he planned to reopen
dialogue between Taiwan's Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF)
and the PRC Association for Relations Across the Taiwan
Strait (ARATS) as the primary cross-Strait communication
channel. Ma also announced he would accept an earlier offer
by Beijing of two pandas, which the DPP government had
rejected, and he discussed possible economic and peace
agreements with Beijing and his hope to reach a consensus
with the PRC on the issue of Taiwan's international space.


9. (C) Frank Hsieh is expected to step down as acting DPP
chairman at the regular Central Standing Committee meeting on
March 26. According to press reports, DPP LY caucus whip Ker
Chien-ming may serve as interim acting chairman until party
members elect a new DPP chairman on May 25. Some DPP
contacts have suggested that the leader best able to hold the
party together as it tries to regroup during the difficult
upcoming period would be Su Tseng-chang. In coming weeks and
months there is bound to be a contentious debate within the
DPP over past failings and future course and leadership.


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