KMT'S MA YING-JEOU WINS DECISIVE VICTORY IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000421 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/24/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL CH TW SUBJECT: KMT'S MA YING-JEOU WINS DECISIVE VICTORY IN TAIWAN'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION; TWO UN REFERENDA FAIL Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reasons: 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The KMT's Ma Ying-jeou swept to victory with a record-breaking 58.4 percent of the votes in Taiwan's presidential election on March 22, beating the ruling DPP candidate Frank Hsieh, who took 41.6 percent of the votes. On a day when the entire island enjoyed good weather, the election process went quite smoothly with the turnout rate at 76.3 percent, which is consistent with turnout trends for previous presidential elections. The DPP had hoped to improve on its dismal performance in the January Legislative Yuan (LY) elections, but the results proved just as bad. Observers here blame President Chen's poor performance for the DPP's defeat, while Ma Ying-jeou was able to capitalize on his personal popularity and a strengthened campaign performance by the KMT focused on the economy. Both Ma and Hsieh have stressed the need to heal the divisions in society following a hard fought election. In press conferences, Ma has discussed ideas for reopening cross-Strait dialogue and indicated he is considering the possibility of pre-inauguration travel to the U.S. and Japan. Frank Hsieh is expected to step down as acting DPP chairman this week, and election of a new chairman is scheduled for May 25. The DPP and KMT referenda both failed, falling far short of the required participation threshold, as neither the candidates nor the public were particularly enthusiastic in promoting them. End Summary. ¶2. (C) As widely expected, Ma won in northern, central, and eastern Taiwan, but he also did surprisingly well in the major cities of southern Taiwan, winning Kaohsiung, Tainan, and Chiayi Cities. Of Taiwan's 25 administrative counties and cities, Hsieh only won in the five counties of the DPP southern heartland: Yunlin, Chiayi, Tainan, Kaohsiung and Pingtung. Hsieh's loss in Kaohsiung City was especially noteworthy, given his record of accomplishments and popularity as mayor from 1998-2005. Frank Hsieh's heavy campaigning in central Taiwan did not bear fruit. Compared to the 2004 presidential contest, when the DPP's Chen Shui-bian narrowly won reelection, the greatest percentage slippages for the DPP occurred in central Taiwan (Taichung City and County, Changhua and Nantou Counties),and in the three northern Hakka counties (Taoyuan, Hsinchu, and Miaoli). The DPP had also hoped to make a respectable showing in Taipei City and County (VP candidate Su Tseng-chang was Taipei County magistrate from 1997-2004),but won just 37 percent of the votes in the city and 39 percent in the county. ¶3. (C) This election is the latest in a string of defeats for the DPP since 2005, when President Chen's family and some senior DPP officials first became embroiled in corruption cases. Almost all observers here place major responsibility on President Chen for the DPP's woes, including Frank Hsieh's defeat. In addition to the corruption problem, President Chen and some of his top officials, including Education Minister Tu Cheng-sheng, were widely viewed as more interested in pursuing quixotic ideological causes than in finding solutions for the economic and social problems faced by ordinary people. Aided by a barrage of negative news from pro-Blue media outlets, the KMT has succeeded in convincing voters that President Chen and his government are corrupt and also incompetent, especially in dealing with the economy. While some DPP supporters fault Frank Hsieh for making fewer campaign appearances than Chen did when he was the candidate, no one is suggesting that anything more he could have done would have changed the election outcome. ¶4. (C) Ma Ying-jeou's exceptionally strong showing should be attributed in part to his personal popularity, which derives from his clean image and moderate personality. Pan-Blue politicians and supporters have rallied around Ma since 2005, enabling the KMT to reunite the pan-Blue and make a major comeback. Ma and the KMT ran a smart campaign that focused effectively on economic issues and the public's widespread desire for change. The campaign also enabled Ma, a mainlander, to "Green" himself by spending much time in southern Taiwan, thereby gaining greater acceptance by Taiwanese voters who have traditionally supported the DPP. TAIPEI 00000421 002 OF 003 In campaign style, ranging from TV ad messages to T-shirts, the KMT dramatically improved its performance by copying the more imaginative DPP, which in the past has always enjoyed an edge in campaigning. Also in this campaign, the KMT showed a greater knack for crisis management, for example, quickly apologizing and taking other steps to neutralize the effects of a damaging incident in which four KMT legislators intruded at Hsieh's campaign headquarters. ¶5. (SBU) In their respective victory and concession speeches on Saturday evening, Ma and Hsieh both stressed the need to restore social harmony after a hard fought election. Ma reached out to his opponents, stressing he would be a president for all the people, complimenting the DPP for its contributions to Taiwan's democratic development, and saying he would take under advisement some policies recommended by Frank Hsieh in the campaign. Ma also emphasized the heavy responsibilities he and the KMT would be undertaking and the need to get to work quickly, so as not to disappoint the expectations of the people. Hsieh congratulated Ma and VP-elect Vincent Siew on their victory and stressed that his personal defeat, for which he took responsibility, was not a defeat for Taiwan's' democracy. Emphasizing that he accepted the election results, Hsieh urged his supporters not to protest. ¶6. (C) Neither Hsieh nor Ma emphasized the UN referenda in their campaigning, and both DPP and KMT UN referenda failed to reach the validation threshold. With 35.8 percent of eligible voters participating in the DPP referendum (joining the UN under the name "Taiwan") and 35.7 percent in the KMT referendum, both fell far short of the participation threshold required to validate a referendum (50 percent of all eligible voters). The 36 percent participation rate on the UN referenda represents a setback from the 45 percent participation rate President Chen achieved with his missile referendum in 2004. Overwhelming majorities of those who actually voted on the two UN referenda voted in their favor, 94 percent for the DPP referendum and 87 percent for the KMT referendum. (Note: Most of those who opposed simply opted not to pick up the ballots.) ¶7. (C) The DPP encouraged its supporters to vote yes on both the DPP and KMT referenda, while the KMT called on its supporters to boycott the DPP referendum and did not actively encourage them to vote for its version either. At the polling stations we observed, voters who took referendum ballots almost always took both ballots rather than just one or the other, and it appears that only a small number of KMT supporters participated in either referendum. The number voting in favor of the DPP referendum (5.5 million) was almost identical to the number voting for Frank Hsieh (5.4 million). ¶8. (SBU) In press conferences Ma held on March 23, he indicated he was considering the possibility of visits to the U.S. and Japan prior to his inauguration on May 20. Ma also said he accepted the "1992 consensus" of "one China, different interpretations," and that he planned to reopen dialogue between Taiwan's Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) and the PRC Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait (ARATS) as the primary cross-Strait communication channel. Ma also announced he would accept an earlier offer by Beijing of two pandas, which the DPP government had rejected, and he discussed possible economic and peace agreements with Beijing and his hope to reach a consensus with the PRC on the issue of Taiwan's international space. ¶9. (C) Frank Hsieh is expected to step down as acting DPP chairman at the regular Central Standing Committee meeting on March 26. According to press reports, DPP LY caucus whip Ker Chien-ming may serve as interim acting chairman until party members elect a new DPP chairman on May 25. Some DPP contacts have suggested that the leader best able to hold the party together as it tries to regroup during the difficult upcoming period would be Su Tseng-chang. In coming weeks and months there is bound to be a contentious debate within the DPP over past failings and future course and leadership. TAIPEI 00000421 003 OF 003 YOUNG