NOTES ON TAIWAN'S PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES: MA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TAIPEI 000411

SIPDIS

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/21/2023
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR TW
SUBJECT: NOTES ON TAIWAN'S PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES: MA
YING-JEOU AND FRANK HSIEH


Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reason 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: This cable provides biographical
information on DPP presidential candidate Frank Hsieh
(Chang-ting) and KMT candidate Ma Ying-jeou, including
personality, leadership styles and views on dealing with the
United States. Widely known as a cosmopolitan thinker with a
sharp wit, Hsieh initially ran a moderate campaign focused on
economic development and upholding Taiwan's sovereignty and
dignity in the face of Chinese pressure, but in the closing
weeks he increasingly turned to negative attacks on Ma's
integrity and loyalty as well as his China policy. Hsieh
appears to value strong U.S.-Taiwan ties, and to understand
Washington's desire for cross-Strait stability. Ma, with a
reputation as a telegenic, pragmatic, and clean politician,
has run a moderate, conservative campaign focused on
criticizing the DPP government's performance, improving the
economy, and establishing constructive engagement with China.
Ma's policy positions have at times put him at odds with key
groups within his party, so that he will need to work out
power sharing relations with other powerful party leaders if
elected. Ma has spent the last few weeks of the campaign
fending off attacks from Hsieh and the DPP, trying to protect
his once-formidable lead. His failure at times to
effectively confront Hsieh's negative campaigning head-on has
caused some, including his own supporters, to question his
leadership abilities. Ma has vowed to restore U.S.-Taiwan
relations, and never to sacrifice the U.S.-Taiwan security
relationship to placate China. Both candidates promise to be
more adept and pragmatic in dealing with the United States
and China than the man they would replace. End Summary.

DPP Presidential Candidate Frank Hsieh
--------------


2. (C) DPP presidential candidate Frank Hsieh (Chang-ting)
advocates social and economic policies that are intended to
help the disadvantaged and to improve the environment.
Relatively moderate, Hsieh takes a practical, flexible
approach to cross-Strait and other sensitive issues, in
notable contrast to the Deep Green ideological approach. To
distinguish himself from KMT candidate Ma Ying-jeou in the
current election campaign, however, Hsieh is stressing that
he will protect Taiwan's sovereignty and dignity when
engaging China. Hsieh emphasizes maintaining consistency in
his policy positions, although he stakes out positions that
are broad enough to allow him room to maneuver and defend
himself when attacked. Hsieh has deep Buddhist spiritual
beliefs, and spends considerable time in thought and
meditation. Well known for intelligence and sharp wit,
admirers describe Hsieh as "charming," while detractors say
he can be "tricky" or "devious." Some people have criticized
him for being "lazy" and not running a tight enough ship as
an administrator.


3. (C) Born in a poor neighborhood in Taipei City in 1946,
Hsieh transferred from a commercial college to the National
Taiwan University Law School, where he achieved fame by
taking the top marks in Taiwan's notoriously difficult bar
examination after his junior year in college. After graduate
study in law at Kyoto University, Hsieh became a leading
attorney in Taipei, representing prominent Taiwan business
clients. His career path took a dramatic change in 1980 when
he joined Chen Shui-bian, Su Tseng-chang, and others on the
team of lawyers defending the Kaohsiung Incident defendants.
Subsequently, Hsieh turned from law to politics, first
winning election as a Taipei City Councilor in 1981 and then
helping to found the DPP in 1986.


4. (C) In 1994, Hsieh competed with Chen Shui-bian for the
DPP nomination for Taipei Mayor, but dropped out of the race
after "betrayal," in his view, by the New Tide faction, which
threw its support to Chen. Hsieh has had rather frosty
relations with some New Tide leaders ever since this
"betrayal." After serving as DPP candidate Peng Ming-min's
running mate in the 1996 presidential election, Hsieh moved
to Kaohsiung, where he won mayoral elections in 1998 and
2002, earning high marks for his strong performance as mayor.
Hsieh did not complete his second term, however, as his

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sometime rival Chen Shui-bian recruited him to serve as
premier in January 2005. Chen kept him in this position for
just one year, removing him after the DPP's landslide loss in
the December 2005 local elections. Hsieh has also served as
a legislator (1990-1996) and as DPP Chairman (July 2000-July
2002). To lay groundwork for his presidential bid, Hsieh ran
for Taipei mayor in 2006 in a campaign that focused on making
a strong showing rather than trying to win an upset victory
in a Blue-majority city. Well known for his personal
philanthropy, Hsieh is married to Yu Fang-chih and they have
a daughter and an adopted son.


5. (C) Hsieh is his own campaign strategist and is even
careful to vet all scheduling details. Generally, Hsieh
tries to avoid having overly detailed policy papers,
especially ones written by academics, because he fears his
opponents will pick apart such documents to find ammunition
for attacks against him. Unlike the hyperactive Chen
Shui-bian, Hsieh sets aside plenty of time for meditation,
thinking, reading and planning. Some DPP contacts more used
to Chen's activist style worry that Hsieh does not make
enough campaign appearances. While Chen appears to gain
energy from pressing the flesh, Hsieh does not enjoy direct
contact with the public. Nonetheless, Hsieh is a very
forceful and eloquent speaker on the campaign stage. When
confronted with potentially embarrassing questions, Hsieh
regularly uses humor to deflect the issue. For example, when
asked by reporters about joining the KMT when he was young,
Hsieh responded, "Yeah, I thought we were going to recover
the mainland."


6. (C) Hsieh is careful to stick to his established policy
positions, even when they become unpopular within the DPP,
and he plays political hard ball when necessary. During and
following a contentious DPP primary last year, Hsieh fought
off the drive by then-DPP Chairman Yu Shyi-kun to box him in
with Deep Green ideological positions. Nonetheless, Hsieh
also works to create broad coalitions, including with those
whose views may differ from his own. While Kaohsiung Mayor,
he succeeded over time in establishing a working relationship
with the KMT-controlled City Council that enabled him to
achieve his policy goals. As a candidate, Hsieh has brought
on board a very broad range of supporters and campaign
workers from inside and outside the party. If elected
president, Hsieh has said he would take a different political
approach than Chen Shui-bian, consulting with the KMT over
the premiership and cabinet appointments, which of course has
become a virtual necessity given the 3/4 KMT majority in the
Legislative Yuan (LY).


7. (C) Hsieh believes Taiwan's future depends on
strengthening its international connections, and he well
understands the special importance of the United States,
especially for Taiwan's security. Hsieh has stressed that,
if elected, he would move to restore trust in U.S.-Taiwan
relations by strengthening communications and avoiding the
political "surprises" that have troubled bilateral relations
during the Chen administration. Hsieh was an IV grantee in
1983 and spent a brief period as a visiting fellow at Harvard
University in 2006. He speaks English at about an S-3 level.

KMT Presidential Candidate Ma Ying-jeou
--------------


8. (C) KMT Presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou has emerged
as the party's best hope to retake the presidency. Ma
centered his campaign around two interconnected themes:
economic recovery for Taiwan through increased engagement
with China. Promising to be a "peacemaker, not a
troublemaker," Ma has also pledged to restore U.S.-Taiwan
relations. Ma's greatest weakness is his "waishengren"
(mainlander) status. Born in Hong Kong to a blue-blood KMT
family, Ma must constantly defend against accusations that he
would "sell out" Taiwan to get closer to China. Ma's good
looks, gentlemanly demeanor, and "clean" reputation
contribute to his "movie star" popularity, especially among
rank-and-file KMT members, young people and women. He is
less popular among party elites, including former KMT
Chairman Lien Chan and LY Speaker Wang Jin-pyng, who

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unsuccessfully opposed many of the reforms Ma pushed through
while KMT party chairman. Ma is a member of the Taipei
elite, but sought to broaden his perspective and his support
base through a series of "long-stays" in central and southern
Taiwan.


9. (U) Ma and his family moved to Taiwan in 1951, when Ma
was one year old. Ma graduated with a law degree from the
prestigious National Taiwan University in 1972. He obtained
an LL.M. from New York University in 1976 and an S.J.D. from
Harvard in 1981. Ma returned to Taiwan in 1981, to serve as
personal secretary to President Chiang Ching-kuo, until
Chiang's death in 1988. Ma served as Mainland Affairs
Council Vice Chairman from 1991-93, and as Justice Minister
from 1993-1996.


10. (C) In 1998, Ma defeated then-incumbent Taipei Mayor Chen
Shui-bian. Ma finished his second mayoral term in December

2006. In July 2005, Ma defeated rival KMT LY Speaker Wang
Jin-pyng to become KMT Chairman. While Chairman, Ma pushed
through a host of reforms intended to make the party more
transparent and democratic. Though they improved the party's
image dramatically, Ma's reforms were staunchly opposed by
the party's old guard. Ma resigned his chairmanship in
February 2007, after being charged with misuse of Taipei
mayoral office accounts. Ma declared himself candidate for
the KMT presidential nomination the same day. (Note: Ma has
been acquitted twice, and prosecutors have filed their final
appeal. End note.) Ma is married to Chou Mei-ching
(Christine),and has two daughters.


11. (C) Ma came into the KMT at the highest levels, and did
not work his way up through the lower ranks like most of his
contemporaries. As such, Ma never developed the personal
connections or deal-making flexibility one usually needs to
make it to the top. Those who know Ma well claim he is warm
and personable, but others complain he can be too reserved,
even standoffish. Ma relies on a small circle of personal
advisers, mostly academics from outside the party, to fix
campaign strategy and other key policies. Based on their
recommendation, Ma went forward with a KMT version of the UN
referendum. The decision was wildly unpopular with the
"deep-Blue" wing of the KMT.


12. (C) Many, both in and outside of the KMT, have questioned
Ma's resolve and vision, and his ability to lead. For
example, his delay in responding to Hsieh's initial
accusations regarding his U.S. "green card" and subsequent
handling of the issue, his reluctant decision to back the
efforts to recall President Chen and waffling support for the
anti-Chen Red Shirt movement, and his failure to successfully
court his main rival, Wang Jyn-ping, to be his running mate,
prompted internal party sources, political rivals, and the
media to criticize his decision-making skills. More
recently, however, his quick response and multiple apologies
for the actions of several KMT legislators who stormed
Hsieh's Taipei presidential headquarters and his criticism of
Beijing's crack-down against protesters in Tibet, suggests he
may be more attuned to the need for swift action when crises
occur. (Note: In a recent meeting with AIT, the veteran KMT
Secretary General noted how much Ma has "matured" as a

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politician over the past year.)


13. (C) Ma is respectful of what he judges to be the
critical Taiwan-U.S. relationship, but his approach to
Washington probably will be limited by the dominant mood
within the KMT at the time. The KMT's Director of Overseas
Affairs Ho Szy-yin told AIT that Ma's first priority as
president will be to rebuild mutual trust in U.S.-Taiwan
relations. Ma has told AIT that he will work closely with
Washington to restore the full vitality of the bilateral
relationship and pledged, if he wins, to express his support
for the primacy of Taiwan-U.S. relations in his acceptance
speech. Ma has assured AIT that when dealing with China he
will be a "peacemaker, not a troublemaker", and that he will
not sacrifice the U.S.-Taiwan security relationship to
placate China. Ma has lived, worked, and studied in the U.S.
and was an IV grantee in 1981. He speaks excellent English.


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Conclusion
--------------


14. (C) Both of these candidates bring a sophistication and
experience not possessed by Chen Shui-bian when he won the
presidency 8 years ago. Their study abroad, upbringing in
Taipei and experience in national politics also distinguish
them from the man they would replace. Hsieh and Ma also have
much more experienced cadre from within their respective
parties to staff a central government than Chen had at his
disposal in 2000. Perhaps most important, both candidates
have learned from observing Chen's mistakes in dealing with
both Washington and Beijing, and seem ready to rule more
pragmatically as a result. All of this bodes well for our
relations with the successful candidate in this weekend's
balloting.
YOUNG