YOUTH COULD BE KEY IN TAIWAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000410

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/04/2023
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: YOUTH COULD BE KEY IN TAIWAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION


Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reason 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou
appears to be making inroads with young voters (20-29 years
of age),a group that voted heavily in favor of the DPP in
the past and proved crucial to President Chen's electoral
successes in 2000 and 2004. Some political experts tell AIT
Ma enjoys a 6-to-4 advantage over Hsieh among the youth, but
one leading pollster recently said Hsieh has been able to
pull even with Ma among this group over the past 10 days.
DPP insiders tell AIT they hope a 50-50 split of the youth
vote will materialize, but worry that may not be enough to
enable Hsieh to win the election. Many youth are attracted
by Ma's clean image, dissatisfaction with DPP rule--the only
ruling party they have known since coming of age--and
concerns about employment prospects after graduation. End
summary.

Youth Have Been "Green" in the Past...
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2. (C) Both KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou and DPP
presidential candidate Frank Hsieh have been making concerted
efforts throughout the campaign to court the youth vote.
Historically, youth turnout has been low, and some experts
estimate not more than 20 percent of young people vote.
However, young voters (20-29 years old) were an important
factor in President Chen's 2000 and 2004 election victories.
Political experts tell AIT in the past the DPP had been able
to win the youth vote by approximately a 2 to 1 or 6 to 4
margin. Youth viewed the DPP as progressive while the KMT
represented a corrupt, entrenched elite.

...But Could Be Turning "Blue"
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3. (C) Beginning in 2005 with Ma's election as KMT party
chairman and after a series of high profile scandals
involving President Chen's aides and family members, however,
the DPP appears to have lost its hold on the youth. Some
contacts tell AIT the KMT now enjoys the 6-4 advantage, which
holds up among youth from all parts of Taiwan, including the
south. One leading Taiwan pollster, however, recently told
AIT Hsieh has been able to pull even with Ma over the past 10
days among the island's approximately 1.28 million young
voters. KMT Division of Youth Affairs Director Daniel T.M.
Hsia told AIT that the KMT divides the under-40 vote into two
different categories: those who have entered society and have
begun their careers, and students still in school or in
military service. He said the KMT is not worried about the
first group, as it has suffered economically under the DPP's
eight-year rule, and therefore the KMT is confident it will
easily win this constituency. Currently, the KMT is gearing
its efforts to attract student supporters.


4. (C) Hsia admitted that the KMT had never concerned itself
with the student vote in earlier elections, because it was
confident enough of its hold on other groups that it could
overlook first-time voters. Events of 2000 and 2004 changed
this mindset, and now the KMT realizes every vote counts.
Students are indifferent towards political parties, he said,
and look more to the "product." He believes they favor Ma
for several reasons, including his clean reputation, his
gentle bearing and photogenic appearance, and his humble
attitude and lifestyle. He said that Ma has addressed the
issue of most direct concern to students, namely the economy.
The KMT strategy is to convince them that a vote for Ma is a
vote for their own future.


5. (C) Hsia estimated student support for Ma at 60-70
percent. The challenge is translating that support to actual
votes. KMT Youth League Coordinator Chen Chiang-ping
described a ride share program which interested students
could sign up for on the KMT Youth League website, offering
free transportation to cities as far away as Kaohsiung. The
Youth League has organized events, such as free music
concerts and karaoke nights, to appeal more to young people's
love of social activities and fun. Chen added that the
Internet has been a very important tool used by the KMT to
attract young voters. The design of the KMT Youth League's

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website has a decidedly feminine quality because the KMT has
discovered that young female students tend to be the least
likely to vote. A "Babes for Ma" contest where hopefuls
uploaded photo submissions to the Youth League site for
online voting proved so successful that the Youth League
featured a "Hunks for Ma" contest shortly after.

DPP Hopes to "Reverse the Tide"
--------------


6. (C) The DPP lacks the financial resources of the KMT, and
so cannot extend its party organization into Taiwan's
university system as well as the KMT, explained DPP
Department of Youth Development Director Chou Yung-hong. He
admitted Hsieh is running behind Ma among youth by a 6-to-4
margin, but pointed to increased enthusiasm by young voters
in the past few weeks, notably at the March 16 "Reverse the
Tide, Protect Taiwan" island-wide rallies.


7. (C) Prior to that point, DPP organizers were disheartened
at the indifference of youth to the election, but they were
overwhelmed at how many youth turned out on March 16. Chou
attributes the turnout to a renewed effort by the DPP to
reconnect with its youth base, with an emphasis on addressing
the concerns of the youth about the economy. Hsieh's attack
on the "one-China market" espoused by Ma has caused young
voters to rethink the wisdom of closer ties to the PRC. In
particular, the recent events in Tibet are having a limited,
but positive effect for the DPP in convincing youth that
China is a genuine threat. The DPP is now hoping it can
break even with the KMT in the youth vote, he said, and he
remains cautiously optimistic that Hsieh will prevail if Ma's
lead is cut to within 6 percent.


8. (C) The DPP is counting on non-traditional campaign
methods to attract a youth that is increasingly indifferent
to organized politics. Of these efforts, the "Reverse the
Tide" movement organized by Freddy Lim has proven most
effective. Lim, a heavy metal musician, enjoys the added
credibility among youth of not carrying an official party
designation, something he shares with over half of Taiwan's
students.


9. (C) Lim told AIT that the KMT is overconfident about Ma's
appeal; in fact many young voters find him artificial and
overly "packaged". He believes the KMT overlooks the fact
that college voters have moved beyond their idol phase, and
seek honest, engaging dialogue with candidates. He has
encouraged Hsieh to engage youth directly, through open-mike
discussions, appearances at music venues, or online,
especially through Youtube. Lim also noted that Tibet has
been having a definite late impact on young voters, but he
thought a 50-50 split with the KMT was a best case scenario
at this point.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) KMT sources are confident, but cautious. They
aren't taking any chances, and have continued an aggressive
outreach to youth up to the last moments of the campaign.
DPP contacts are realistic that they are running behind, but
believe they have cut the gap to where Hsieh still has a
chance. DPP methods are more creative and savvy than those
of the KMT, and young DPP supporters are passionate and
idealistic. However, in the minds of a youth that came of
age knowing only a DPP president, the DPP itself is seen by
some as the "establishment" party, and so may find it hard to
convince skeptics that Hsieh represents real change.
YOUNG