A PRIMER ON TAIWAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION PROCESS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000409

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/21/2018
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: A PRIMER ON TAIWAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION PROCESS

Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Approximately 13.5 million voters are
expected to cast ballots either for the KMT's Ma Ying-joeu or
for the DPP's Frank Hsieh in Taiwan's presidential election
on Saturday, March 22. Unless the election is extremely
close or contested, the winner should be clear by 8 or 9 p.m.
Most of AIT's contacts expect Ma Ying-jeou to win, though
Frank Hsieh is fighting to score a come-from-behind upset
victory. Two UN referenda are also on the ballot; our
contacts predict that neither will meet the high
participation threshold (50 percent of all eligible oters)
required to validate a referendum. End Summary.


2. (U) Taiwan's voters head to the polls Saturday, March 22,
to elect their next president, who will serve a four-year
term after inauguration on May 20. Two tickets are competing
in the election: the ruling Democratic Progressive Party's
(DPP) Frank Hsieh (Chang-ting) and VP candidate Su
Tseng-chang versus the opposition Kuomintang's (KMT) Ma

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Ying-jeou and his running mate Vincent Siew (Wan-chang). The
14,401 polling stations throughout Taiwan and the offshore
islands of Kinmen and Matsu will open at 8 a.m. and close at
4 p.m. After the polls close, election workers at each
polling station will count the paper ballots, and then
forward the results through Central Election Commission (CEC)
offices to the CEC's election center in Taipei, which will
display a running tally of the official results as they come
during the late afternoon and evening.


3. (SBU) Taiwan's TV news stations will also compile and
display their own running tallies of election returns, which
come in much faster than the official CEC count, though such
numbers are not always completely accurate. Unless the
election is extremely close or contested, who the winner is
will be clear by 8 or 9 in the evening on election day.
Taiwan has long experience with elections, which are quite
orderly, with both voters and election workers understanding
the drill. Incidents at polling stations or problems with
the election process have tended to be unusual and minor. In
the early evening, supporters will gather outside the
candidates' headquarters, and once the results are in, both
winning and losing candidates will address their supporters.



4. (C) There are 17.3 million people eligible to vote in the
presidential election, and the expected turnout rate is about
78 percent or 13.5 million votes. If there are storms in
northern Taiwan, as currently predicted, that could slightly
depress the turnout rate in the north. If the turnout rate
is 78 percent, the victorious candidate will need to win more
than 6.8 million votes.


5. (C) The expectation here is widespread that Ma Ying-jeou
will win the election, although pollsters and other experts
differ over the size of Ma's lead. In addition to post-2005
election trends, key reasons for this expectation include a
perception that many people want their government to focus on
improving the economy, the central plank of the KMT's
program, and they desire a change because they are fed up
with the Chen administration. However, the Hsieh campaign
has also gained some resonance with its central theme that
the DPP can better protect Taiwan's interests against
pressure from China. Most contacts doubt, but do not
entirely discount, the possibility of a Hsieh upset victory.
Having lost previous elections that it expected to win, the
KMT even at this date remains obsessed that a possible
last-minute "dirty trick" by the DPP could affect tomorrow's
results.


6. (C) If the KMT wins on Saturday, the reaction by the DPP
and its supporters will probably be subdued since the results
will not come as a major surprise. Frank Hsieh, who has said
he would withdraw from politics if he loses, would step down
as acting party chairman on election night. If the DPP
loses, the magnitude of the loss will have a bearing on
morale and party plans for the future. Winning over 40
percent of the vote would probably be viewed as a credible
performance by Hsieh, while a showing under 40 percent could

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raise concerns over whether base support for the DPP may be
eroding. A Hsieh victory would come as a big shock to the
KMT and its supporters, who would find the results difficult
to believe or accept. (Note: These is likely to be an
emotional search for "scapegoats," should this happen.)
Nonetheless, the KMT, which enjoys a 3/4 majority in the LY,
will not want to see a repeat of the damaging demonstrations
that followed its losses in 2000 and 2004.


7. (C) In addition to the presidential election, voters will
also have the option of casting ballots on either or both of
two referenda, one sponsored by the DPP on joining the UN
under the name "Taiwan" and the other sponsored by the KMT on
returning to the UN under the ROC or a flexible name.
Election workers will tally referendum ballots immediately
after completing the count of presidential votes, and these
results will also become available during the evening on
Saturday. For a referendum to be valid, 50 percent of all
eligible voters must participate, i.e., about 8.7 million
voters. AIT's contacts do not expect either referendum to
meet the 50 percent participation threshold, one pollster
predicting that the participation rate will be under 40
percent for both referenda. Most KMT supporters will
probably not participate in either referendum.
YOUNG