PREMIER CHANG CHUN-HSIUNG ON THE MARCH 22

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000394

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/19/2023
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: PREMIER CHANG CHUN-HSIUNG ON THE MARCH 22
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AND PORK, BEEF IMPORTS


Classified By: AIT Deputy Director Robert S. Wang, Reason 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Premier Chang Chun-hsiung acknowledged the
election has taken immediate priority in government affairs,
but promised that the Chen administration will continue
discussions to resolve pork and beef import issues with the
U.S. for the remainder of President Chen's term. Regarding
the election, Chang believes it will be very close, and that
the recent disturbances in Tibet will have a positive effect
on the DPP's chances for victory, however he does not expect
either the DPP or KMT version of the UN referendum to pass.
He assured the Director that if the DPP wins, it has no
intention of declaring independence and will maintain the
current situation. If the DPP loses the election, it will
respect the will of the Taiwan people and President Chen's
administration will fully cooperate with the incoming KMT
administration during the transition process. End summary.

Pork and Beef Import Discussions to Continue After the
Election
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2. (C) The Director met with Premier Chang Chun-hsiung on
March 18 to discuss the upcoming March 22 presidential
election, and unresolved issues regarding the importation of
U.S. pork and beef into Taiwan. The Director expressed to
Premier Chang that the U.S. understands the March 22nd
presidential election has preoccupied the Taiwan government
for the moment, but he is hopeful that after the election,
Taiwan officials will give priority to making progress in
resolving pork and beef import issues before the end of the
Chen administration on May 20. Premier Chang responded that
he fully understands U.S. concerns, and that he believes U.S.
pork and beef issues can be resolved. He said the Taiwan
side is still studying international standards for
ractopamine in pork, and that its main consideration is
approaching this question from the standpoint of the people's
health.


3. (C) Director Young expressed his hope to revisit this
issue after the election. He noted that much progress has
been made in the last 3 to 4 months and the matter is close
to a resolution. He stated that the U.S. further desires to
expand the U.S. beef market in Taiwan from boneless cuts to
all beef products, from animals of all ages (i.e.,
OIE-consistent access). The U.S. also wishes to work as a
partner with Taiwan on more open access to the Japan, Korea
and PRC markets. Chang reiterated his willingness to keep
moving forward in the remaining months of the Chen
administration. There are political issues that prevent the
immediate resolution of the matter, he explained, but he will
instruct Vice Premier Chiou I-jen to coordinate with
Department of Health Minister Hou Sheng-mao and the Council
of Agriculture after the election.


Events in Tibet Loom Over Taiwan Election
--------------


4. (C) In response to the Director's question about the role
recent disturbances in Tibet are playing in the election,
Chang said that this will increase Taiwan voters' concerns
about becoming too close to China. He pointed out the PRC had
made friendly overtures to Tibet in the same way it has to
Taiwan, and yet China has on many occasions resorted to
military action in Tibet, most notably the invasion in 1959.
He predicted the ongoing PRC crackdowns in Tibet will cause
Taiwan voters to take a renewed look at the KMT, its "five
point consensus" signed with the PRC in April 2005, and its
championing of the "one-China market." Chang believes the
election will be very close, but chose not to respond when
the Director asked how high he thought turnout would be, only
mentioning that a higher turnout would benefit Frank Hsieh.

UN Referendums Unlikely to Pass
--------------


5. (C) Chang told the Director that because a referendum must

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receive more than 50 percent approval by voters, it will be
very difficult for the DPP UN referendum to pass. The bar
was raised even higher when the KMT proposed its own version,
which will in effect split the vote. He believes the KMT
cannot afford to actively encourage a "no" vote, because it
will make them look bad in the eyes of the Taiwan people, but
the KMT does not want to see either referendum succeed. The
Director asked what it would mean for neither referendum to
pass, but the Premier demurred, saying the answer to this
must wait until the results of the election, since it will be
a new administration that deals with this issue. He did say
the referendum could be seen as demonstrating the desire of
Taiwan to have a name for itself in international
organizations, be it the World Health Organization, the
Olympics, or other organizations. The Director emphasized
the U.S. position opposes passage of either version, while at
the same time affirming U.S. support for Taiwan's democracy,
and the commitment to maintain close friendship with Taiwan.
The Director noted he had discussed this extensively with
both candidates.

Cross-Strait Relations
--------------


6. (C) Premier Chang assured the Director that although the
DPP would not alter its position that Taiwan is not a part of
China, it will not declare independence and is committed to
maintaining the status quo. Chang noted that 74 percent of
Taiwan's people now believe Taiwan alone should decide its
destiny. After the defeat in the Legislative Yuan (LY)
elections, the DPP needs to regain the support of the people,
while at the same time carrying out their will. According to
the Director, the most important thing is to maintain
stability for the people of Taiwan while at the same time
advancing democracy. He noted progress achieved in
cross-Strait relations in areas of investment, cultural
exchanges, and tourism, and that both candidates were
committed to further expanding these ties. Chang agreed, and
added that even if the DPP wins, he believes a more stable
relationship is attainable because the PRC would prove
pragmatic in dealing with a Frank Hsieh administration.


7. (C) The Director told Chang the U.S. sees the PRC acting
more reserved than in previous Taiwan elections--it is not
criticizing the DPP as it has done in the past, and he hopes
this means the PRC will be more willing to cooperate with
Taiwan after the election. The U.S. has repeatedly
emphasized to China that unless it is willing to accept the
Taiwan people's choice of elected leaders, there can be no
long-term solution. He added that China is fearful of
Taiwan's democracy because of the implications it has for the
Communist Party's monopoly of power.


Transfer of Power
--------------


8. (C) The Director said the PRC is worried that President
Chen will try something before the May transfer of power
should the DPP lose the election. This is because it does
not understand democracy, and in fact, fears it. On the
other hand, Taiwan gives much hope to the people of China and
Hong Kong that a state can peacefully transition into a
democracy from an autocracy, and Taiwan can hold its head
high in that respect.



9. (C) Chang made it very clear that Chen Shui-bian will
respect the will of the people, regardless of the election's
outcome. He pointed out that when the KMT lost the
presidential elections of 2000 and 2004, it encouraged its
supporters to take to the streets in protest, but that when
the DPP suffered a massive defeat in the January 2008
Legislative Yuan elections, it stepped down willingly, and
without incident. He said there was no chance that Chen
Shui-bian would call the military to high alert status or
declare martial law if the KMT wins on Saturday.


10. (C) The Director noted that in 2000 the transfer of

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administration from the KMT to DPP had not gone smoothly, and
he hoped President Chen's administration would assist the
victor in the transition, no matter which candidate won.
Chang was adamant that the transfer would go more smoothly
this time around. In 2000, the KMT was not willing to
cooperate with the DPP because it was bitter over its defeat,
and the DPP had no experience in administration, so it made
many errors. The DPP is committed to the principle of
developing democratic institutions, and will fully cooperate
with whomever wins the election.


11. (C) The Director stressed this election will provide
Taiwan another opportunity to show the world how democracy
can flourish in a relatively short time, something harder to
accomplish than many think. He noted that expected numbers
of international observers in Taiwan are double that of the
2004 election, giving Taiwan the world stage. A peaceful,
cooperative transition from the election to the inauguration
of the new administration will belie the idea espoused by
Singapore, and championed by the PRC, that a Confucian
society is incompatible with democracy. Taiwan should seize
the opportunity to show the world once and for all that this
idea is erroneous. Premier Chang stated that though there
were some disturbances in the aftermath of the 2000 and 2004
elections, he is confident this time the vote will proceed
peacefully and with minimal conflict. He views his own role
in the transition of administrations as that of a midwife,
and wants to deliver a healthy baby no matter "blue" or
"green."
YOUNG