KMT CHAIRMAN WU: MA VICTORY NOT ASSURED, REFERENDA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000385

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/18/2023
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: KMT CHAIRMAN WU: MA VICTORY NOT ASSURED, REFERENDA
WILL FAIL


Classified By: Director Stephen M. Young, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D).


1. (C) Summary: KMT Chairman Wu Po-hsiung told the Director
on March 18 that the presidential race is within ten points,
and still very much up for grabs. The effect of several
factors, including Ma's green card and the disturbance in
Tibet, remained unpredictable. The Director suggested to Wu
that China's leaders may be less willing to compromise with
Taiwan's next president following the separatist unrest in
Tibet. Wu acknowledged this possibility, but expressed faith
in Ma's ability, if elected, to make quick progress on
cross-Strait flights and expanded PRC tourism in Taiwan.
Without elaborating, Wu said he was worried less about DPP
"dirty tricks" than he was about the personal safety of Ma
and his running mate Vincent Siew. Wu surmised that
President Chen would be focused on his own post-presidential
welfare and, thus, would not pull any "surprises" in the two
months between the election and his successor's inauguration.
Wu expressed confidence that both UN referenda would fail,
and that a late endorsement by former president Lee Teng-hui
would have little effect on the presidential race. The
Director reminded Wu that the election is a unique
opportunity to improve relations with China, and urged Wu and
his party to seek common ground with the DPP, regardless of
who wins the presidential race. End Summary.


2. (C) Director Young met with KMT Chairman Wu Po-hsiung and
campaign adviser Stephen Chen at KMT headquarters the morning
of March 18.

Election Vulnerable to Recent Events
--------------


3. (C) Wu told the Director there are many factors which are
capable of influencing the election in these final four days,
including the March 12 "door-kicking incident" at Hsieh's
campaign headquarters and the recent statement by former
AIT/W Chairperson Therese Shaheen that China will "demand
more" from Taiwan if Ma is elected. Shaheen's remarks could
hurt Ma, Wu explained, because many in Taiwan believe she
still represents the U.S. government, or is at least close to
AIT. The Director clarified that Shaheen is in Taiwan as a
private businessperson, with no official or unofficial
connection to AIT or the U.S. government, and was expressing
her personal viewpoint.


4. (C) AIT's reactions are also having an effect on the race,
Wu said, pointing to the issue of Ma's green card and
ongoing DPP allegations that it remains valid. The absence
of a clear-cut answer from AIT or the USG has allowed the DPP
to perpetuate and embellish the story, Wu complained. The
allegations are all false, added Wu, but the story still
resonates with credulous voters. The Director reminded Wu
that AIT had answered in writing all of Ma's green
card-related questions, to the fullest extent permitted by
American law. AIT handled the matter with the utmost
delicacy, added the Director, to avoid prejudicing either of
the presidential candidates. Wu thanked the Director and the
USG for its tact in handling the green card issue, and let
the matter drop.


5. (C) The DPP is using the social unrest in Tibet to remind
voters in Taiwan that China is capable of the harshest forms
of repression, said Wu. Frank Hsieh has gone so far as to
claim that Taiwan will become "the next Tibet" if Ma is
elected president. A somewhat agitated Wu insisted that
Taiwan and Tibet are nothing alike -- Taiwan is an
independent, sovereign country with the right of self-rule.
There is no way that Taiwan could become Tibet, he argued, as
long as Taiwan elects its own leaders. Ma and the KMT are
trying to counter DPP alarmism by voicing support for Tibetan
self-rule and sympathy for Tibetan victims of China's
crackdown. Ma will also continue to denounce China's attempt
to control Taiwan through the Anti-Secession Law, he added.
If elected, Ma in the near term will focus on cross-Strait
flights and expanded trade and tourism, said Wu. The DPP
claim that unification talks are just around the corner is
nonsense, since the necessary conditions are absent, and
probably decades away.


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Tibet Could Color Taiwan-PRC Relations
--------------


6. (C) The Director cautioned Wu that the disturbance in
Tibet may color China's attitude toward Taiwan's next
president. Ma has set an ambitious timeline to achieve
regular cross-Strait flights and increased Chinese tourism to
Taiwan, the Director noted, but the process may not go as
smoothly as Ma hopes. The instability in Tibet has likely
increased anxiety levels in Beijing, making Chinese leaders
more risk-averse. The leadership could also be under
increasing pressure to take a strong stand against any form
of separatism, making it more difficult for Beijing and
Taipei to find common ground. Wu acknowledged this
possibility, but expressed confidence that Ma, if elected,
would be able to achieve his goals on tourism and flights
within a reasonable time.

Can KMT Control Its Legislators?
--------------


7. (C) The March 12 "door-kicking" incident involving the
attempt by four KMT legislators to barge into Frank Hsieh's
headquarters would seem to raise questions about the KMT's
ability to control the behavior of its legislators, the
Director commented. Wu agreed, but claimed the public outcry
following the incident had given him the political clout to
lay down clear rules for legislators' behavior, and
consequences for violations. Wu claimed to have told KMT
legislators that "if they wish to earn money, they should
quit public service and go into business." (Comment: AIT
remains doubtful of the KMT leadership's ability to control
its legislators. The new, smaller LY districts put
legislators much closer to local interests, which may
increase the likelihood of corruption. This is especially so
for KMT legislators eager to cash in after eight years as the
party out of power. End comment.)

Worries Over Ma-Siew Personal Safety
--------------


8. (C) Wu told the Director his chief concern in the closing
days of the race is not a last-minute DPP "dirty trick," but
the personal security of Ma Ying-jeou and his
vice-presidential running mate Vincent Siew (Wan-chang). Ma
and Siew both wear bullet-proof vests when interacting with
the public, but it is not possible to protect the candidates
from everything they might encounter, worried Wu. The
Director noted that the U.S. and Taiwan had been working
together to improve security for all four of the candidates,
and that Taiwan is in general a very safe place. As Wu was
walking the Director out after the meeting, he also expressed
concern about the safety of the DPP candidates, a subject
news reports later in the day touched upon as a concern of
the KMT Chairman.

Chen Boxed In?
--------------


9. (C) The Director asked Wu whether the KMT expected
President Chen to unveil any "surprises" between the March 22
election and the May 20 presidential inauguration. Chen is
still the president, Wu replied, and during those two months
he will still be able to appoint supreme court justices,
prosecutors, and other high level government officials. But
Chen must look out for his personal welfare after he leaves
office, Wu continued, and must be careful not to antagonize
his successor, whoever that might be. That might be
especially true, the Director remarked, if Hsieh were to win
the election. If Chen the lame-duck tries to set DPP policy
after the election, the Director reasoned, the DPP, eager to
transition to Hsieh's leadership, would reject it. Wu
agreed, and added that in that context, there was no way that
Chen could hold a defensive referendum before he leaves
office.

Referenda Going Down to Defeat
--------------


10. (C) In response to the Director's query, Wu predicted

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that both the DPP and KMT UN referenda would fail. The main
reason the KMT decided to boycott the DPP referendum, he
explained, was to prevent further damage to the U.S.-Taiwan
relationship. Many in the KMT had called for a boycott of
both referenda, Wu explained, but doing so would have opened
Ma and the KMT to charges they "do not love Taiwan" and are
"controlled by Beijing." Wu told the Director that the KMT
will continue to seek "participation" in the UN and other
international organizations, even if both referenda fail as
expected. He saw no legal impediments to this long-standing
practice.

Turnout Near 80 Percent, Rain or Shine
--------------

11.(C) Wu told the Director that internal polls indicate Ma
currently leads Hsieh by ten points (three points below the
13 point lead KMT campaign adviser John Feng described on
March 15 as the KMT's "comfort zone"). Ma's popularity had
recovered much of the loss caused by the March 12
"door-kicking" incident, said Wu, but the KMT still remains
"nervous" about the election outcome. KMT voters are highly
motivated, and will not be deterred by the rain expected for
Taiwan on Saturday. Wu predicted that overall voter turnout
will be between 75-80 percent, but he did not say whether
this augured well for the KMT candidate. Wu did say that the
recent global economic downturn may help Ma win. Local
pundits have predicted Taiwan's stock market will go up to
10,000 if Ma wins, but down to 6,700 if he loses.

Nobody Listens to Lee Teng-Hui
--------------


12. (C) The Director asked whether former president and TSU
"spiritual leader" Lee Teng-hui still had a role to play in
this election. Wu replied that Lee's endorsement would have
little impact because few people still listen to what Lee has
to say. Furthermore, Lee has been marginalized by others in
the TSU, leaving him in no position to endorse Hsieh.

KMT Focus on Youth and Reform
--------------


13. (C) Wu told the Director he will remain the KMT Chairman
if Ma is elected, and will serve out the remainder of his
term, stepping down in July 2009. Wu claimed to have no
further political aspirations, and would spend the rest of
his tenure helping Ma reform the party and cultivating the
KMT's next generation of young leaders.


14. (C) In closing, the Director stated Washington's
expectation that Taiwan's presidential election would bring
about a new opportunity to improve cross-Strait relations.
Washington continues to urge Beijing to talk to Taiwan's
elected leaders, but Beijing continues to hold on to outdated
notions on how to deal with Taiwan. The U.S. will continue
to push both sides to adopt a more flexible, practical
approach to cross-Strait ties. The Director also urged the
KMT, regardless of whether Ma is elected, to seek common
ground with the DPP.

Comment
--------------


15. (C) Like his candidate, KMT Chairman Wu remains nervous
of a strong finish by the DPP. That said, the KMT seems more
reactive to DPP attacks than trying to establish their bona
fides as the future ruling party, as this race heads to the
finish line.
YOUNG