PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: CENTRAL TAIWAN AGAIN THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TAIPEI 000366 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/14/2023 TAGS: PGOV TW SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: CENTRAL TAIWAN AGAIN THE KEY BATTLEGROUND Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reason 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The four counties of Taichung, Changhua, Yunlin and Nantou in central Taiwan portend to once again be the key battleground that decides Taiwan's March 22 presidential election. Both parties see the area as a critical buffer zone between the KMT-dominated "blue" north and the DPP stronghold in the "green" south, offering each the possibility for victory. Both KMT and DPP view heavily populated -- over five million -- central Taiwan as crucial to their chances of victory next week. Local KMT confidence is running high following its rout of the DPP in the January Legislative Yuan (LY) elections, in which the KMT won all 17 central Taiwan seats. The DPP remains decidedly pessimistic, but DPP presidential candidate Frank Hsieh's recent attack on what he terms Ma's "one China market" has breathed new life into his moribund campaign. Area DPP officials told AIT that internal party polls indicate Ma's advantage has shrunk to less than 7 percent, and if island-wide rallies planned for March 16 successfully mobilize voters, a Frank Hsieh come-from-behind win is not out of the question. End summary. ¶2. (C) AIT officers traveled March 10 to Taichung, Changhua and Yunlin, the three most populous counties in central Taiwan, and met with officials of both parties to discuss the election atmosphere there. Central Taiwan is pivotal because while the region has traditionally supported the KMT, the 2004 LY and presidential elections demonstrated that voter loyalty here cannot be taken for granted. In 2004, all four central Taiwan counties went into incumbent DPP President Chen Shui-bian's column, providing the crucial margin of Chen's victory. Both parties, therefore, see the area as a highly strategic buffer zone between the KMT dominated north and the DPP stronghold of the south, making central Taiwan the critical tiebreaker. Taichung County: KMT Confident, DPP Banking on March 16 -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Taichung is the largest county in central Taiwan and is the region's economic powerhouse. While the county supported President Chen 52-48 percent in the 2004 presidential election, the recently-concluded LY elections saw a complete reversal of DPP fortunes. The KMT won all five seats and outpolled the DPP 58-40 percent. DPP Taichung County Deputy Executive Director Hsiao Yu-lin told AIT that the fortunes of his party began to decline following the 2005 county magistrate election, which saw the KMT candidate win by over 140 thousand votes. He described the mood of DPP voters in Taichung County as "depressed" due to economic issues and Taiwan's overall situation. Hsiao acknowledged Frank Hsieh is running behind in the county, but was reluctant to provide any numbers. He predicted voter turnout will be in the neighborhood of 70-75 percent. Hsiao also said the DPP can no longer rely on the youth vote as it did in the past. He blamed the media for this phenomenon, saying that most TV stations and newspapers were biased in favor of the KMT, and almost always reported the DPP in a critical light. Young people, however, are not switching support to the KMT, rather they are avoiding politics altogether. A new DPP ad campaign stresses the need for parents to educate their children about Taiwan's difficult road to democracy, which most youths take for granted. ¶4. (C) Hsiao complained that DPP presidential candidate Frank Hsieh strictly controls all facets of his campaign from his Taipei headquarters, resulting in less autonomy for local organizations. He also worried that Hsieh's aggressive debating tactics and relentless personal attacks on his KMT opponent Ma Ying-jeou may backfire. However, he noted that Hsieh's criticism of Ma's "one China market" has clearly resonated among voters, because the driving issue in this election is people's livelihood. Taichung County is home to many farmers, who believe they cannot compete against Chinese farmers and their much lower input costs. Hsiao views the March 16 DPP "Reversing the Tide-Protecting Taiwan" island-wide rallies as Frank Hsieh's last chance to turn things around. Commemorative events are less effective than TAIPEI 00000366 002 OF 004 in previous years because young voters are increasingly apathetic, but the "March Against the Wind" event of February 28 gave the Hsieh campaign a much-needed shot in the arm. To do the job for Hsieh, however, the March 16 rallies will need to mobilize at least a million voters. ¶5. (C) AIT met with Taichung County Magistrate Huang Chung-sheng and Deputy Magistrate Chang Chuang-hsi, both KMT, who confirmed that Frank Hsieh's attack on Ma's "one China market" was having a measurable effect among voters. Deputy Magistrate Chang said Ma must emphasize that China is only one country among many in a broad foreign trade scheme. Ma should use Singapore as an example of how Taiwan could open up to the world, while still maintaining its sovereignty and integrity. Magistrate Huang added that the DPP base will be highly mobilized for this election because deep-Greens are worried about the continued viability of the DPP should Frank Hsieh lose. The LY election results have generated enthusiasm among KMT supporters, which will carry over into the presidential election. Due to the unpopularity of the Chen administration and the perception that the DPP has governed poorly, unaligned voters are leaning to Ma by a 6 to 4 ratio. Magistrate Huang predicts voter turnout will reach 75-80 percent and that Ma will win Taichung County by a minimum of 50-60 thousand votes, perhaps by as many as 80 thousand. ¶6. (C) Huang expected voter turnout for the presidential election to reach 80 percent, exceeding the LY turnout by 20 percent. This increase will come from the youth and business sectors, two groups that lacked motivation to vote in the LY election. He attributes Ma's appeal among young voters to his attractiveness and charisma. Young people are turning away from the DPP because the foremost issue on their minds is the economy. The business community supports Ma because he offers a sounder cross-Strait economic policy. Ma's 'long-stay' program among local people will also have a positive effect at the ballot box. Deputy Magistrate Chang commented that Ma had never lived or worked outside of Taipei, and was unfamiliar with conditions in the rest of Taiwan. The common people initially viewed him as someone far removed from their daily lives. But Ma's long-stays have helped him seem more approachable and down-to-earth, according to Chang. Ma also learned to convincingly articulate his plans to different levels of society, which will help him win coveted unaligned voters. Changhua County: DPP Sees Tide Turning Hsieh's Way -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) Changhua County is the second largest county in central Taiwan, and is arguably the deepest blue, though President Chen managed to win here in 2004 by 52-48 percent. In 2005, however, the KMT ran away with the 2005 county magistrate race by 100,000 votes, and in the 2008 LY election, the KMT emerged victorious by a 68-32 margin, easily winning the county's four seats. These successive big victories have infused the KMT county apparatus with an exuberant confidence heading into election day unmatched by other regional KMT organizations. KMT Legal Director Mr. Chuo Bo-chung predicts a win for Ma of at least 50,000 and as much as 100,000 votes. He ascribes the turnaround to vastly improved local party organization following the 2004 presidential defeat. He also noted that the special characteristic of Changhua politics is that voters back a candidate rather than a party. Ma is a star 'product' and his Harvard pedigree plays well to a Changhua electorate that highly values educational achievement. Ma is also boosted by the popularity of the KMT county magistrate, who is credited with making Changhua's unemployment rate the third-lowest in Taiwan. ¶8. (C) Chuo told AIT that according to a poll conducted by his local office, Ma's popularity over Hsieh is 47-18 percent in Changhua County. However, he added that DPP voters usually decline to participate in KMT polls, so Hsieh's actual figures should be about double, or around 36 percent. He admitted that the DPP's most effective campaign weapon has been Hsieh's criticism of Ma's "one China market," which has helped consolidate the DPP base and made inroads into TAIPEI 00000366 003 OF 004 unaligned voters. ¶9. (C) DPP Changhua County Chairman Liang Tseng-hsiang told AIT that the political climate is 'cold' largely due to negative media coverage of the DPP. However, the situation for Frank Hsieh is not as bad as it seems. DPP internal polls show Ma with a mere 5-6 percent lead, and word on the street is positive. Ma is on the defensive regarding his "one China market" proposal, and women oppose it most of all. This is because they are worried about competition from PRC women for husbands, and as managers of households, they are concerned about an influx of low quality, dangerous products from the PRC. If the March 16 rallies succeed in firing up the DPP base, Liang predicted Frank Hsieh could win the election. Liang expects an increase of 20 percent in turnout over the LY elections, with at least 70 percent of those for Frank Hsieh. He alleged that vote-buying by the KMT was rampant in the LY elections, and it will also buy at least 20 percent of its votes in the presidential election, mostly in the countryside. However, he expects Hsieh to win by 100,000 votes island-wide. The DPP's greatest fear is that the U.S. will provide Ma with fake certification attesting that his green card is invalid. Liang is also convinced that Ma possesses a British passport. Yunlin County: In the DPP Column, But by How Much? -------------- -------------- ¶10. (C) Yunlin is the poorest of the central Taiwan counties, and is the most likely to stay in the Green camp. KMT Yunlin County Chairman Hsu Shu-po told AIT that KMT factional strife had cost the party the county magistrate election in 2005. However, the two factions have united for the presidential election, and he is hopeful the KMT will break even with the DPP. In the 2004 presidential election, the KMT lost by 80,000 votes. Hsu has planned a March 13 afternoon rally for 5,000 women voters that will feature a personal appearance by Ma Ying-jeou. Each woman will get to shake Ma's hand, and Hsu believes that this could result in an extra 50,000 votes for Ma, as the women will rave about the experience to their friends. Turnout of female voters is typically half that of men, but Ma's good looks should change that, according to Hsu. Women voters also feel the economic pinch of higher prices and stagnant salaries more than men, because they run the households, so Ma's stress on economic issues will attract their support. Hsu plans to mobilize 1,600 vans and buses to get out the vote to Yunlin's five hundred voting stations. He expects a 75 percent voter turnout, an increase of 17 percent over the LY election, with the additional voters breaking 6-4 in favor of the opposition DPP. ¶11. (C) Hsu noted that due to Yunlin's poverty, approximately one million Yunlin natives live and work in other parts of Taiwan, primarily the north. He expects 75 percent of those who are eligible to vote will return to do so. Students will favor Ma by a 6-4 margin, not because they are enamored of the KMT, but because they are disappointed with the DPP and worried about their future employment prospects. Elderly voters, 25 percent of the electorate, are Hsu's greatest concern. These voters, Hsu argued, are mostly uneducated farmers, and are most vulnerable to Hsieh's scare tactics about the "one China market". They are also most easily swayed by appeals to Taiwan identity. Hsu will attempt to counteract this through personal connections and trust he has built among local residents, the key to winning votes in the central and southern parts of Taiwan. Hsu conceded that if the KMT wins, it will be because of the DPP's poor performance over the past eight years, not voter confidence in a renewed KMT. If Ma wins, Hsu predicted he will need to use his first term to strengthen alliances within the party before he can effect meaningful reforms. ¶12. (C) DPP Yunlin County Chairman Hsu Ken-wei conceded that Ma is the current favorite, but insisted Hsieh has cut Ma's lead to 7 points, according to internal DPP polls. The "one China market" debate has proven highly resonant with voters in central Taiwan, much more so than Ma's green card issue. Hsu claimed the Ma camp has outspent Hsieh by a factor of TAIPEI 00000366 004 OF 004 ten, due to its massive party resources. The DPP cannot compete in an advertisement spending war, and so must rely on mobilizing its base and appealing to voters, mostly greens, who sat out the LY elections. He admitted the DPP has struggled to retain its advantage in the youth vote. Students are indifferent to politics, lamented Hsu, because Taiwan's education system has failed to cultivate their Taiwan identity. The March 16 rallies are crucial for Frank Hsieh, and Hsu expects to mobilize up to 30,000 participants in his county. An Academic's View -------------- ¶13. (C) Professor Joseph Tsai of Chiang Kai-shek University in Chiayi told AIT that Frank Hsieh's critique of Ma's "one China market" had revitalized the Hsieh campaign. He believes Hsieh had no idea this issue would strike such a strong chord among voters, but once he realized its effectiveness, Hsieh made it his campaign's main theme. Up to that point, Tsai noted, Hsieh had focused primarily on Ma's "green card", and his highly negative tone was not well-received among unaligned voters, whom Tsai estimates at 15-20 percent. The island-wide rallies on March 16, Tsai continued, will be critical for DPP hopes, and if Hsieh wins it will be by the slimmest of margins. Whoever wins Taichung, Yunlin and Nantou counties will win the presidency, predicted Tsai. He also noted that if Hsieh is able to present solid SIPDIS evidence that Ma still has a valid green card, he would win the election. Otherwise, Ma will prevail. Comment -------------- ¶14. (C) While the KMT is likely to prevail in at least three of the four central Taiwan counties, recent events suggest the KMT's margin of victory could be much smaller than initially expected. Reaction against what Hsieh labels Ma's "one China market" continues to invigorate the DPP base and reverberate among unaligned voters. The outcome of the election may very well now hinge on how successfully the DPP mobilizes its supporters for the March 16 rallies. YOUNG