PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: CENTRAL TAIWAN AGAIN THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TAIPEI 000366

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/14/2023
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: CENTRAL TAIWAN AGAIN THE
KEY BATTLEGROUND


Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reason 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: The four counties of Taichung, Changhua,
Yunlin and Nantou in central Taiwan portend to once again be
the key battleground that decides Taiwan's March 22
presidential election. Both parties see the area as a
critical buffer zone between the KMT-dominated "blue" north
and the DPP stronghold in the "green" south, offering each
the possibility for victory. Both KMT and DPP view heavily
populated -- over five million -- central Taiwan as crucial
to their chances of victory next week. Local KMT confidence
is running high following its rout of the DPP in the January
Legislative Yuan (LY) elections, in which the KMT won all 17
central Taiwan seats. The DPP remains decidedly pessimistic,
but DPP presidential candidate Frank Hsieh's recent attack on
what he terms Ma's "one China market" has breathed new life
into his moribund campaign. Area DPP officials told AIT that
internal party polls indicate Ma's advantage has shrunk to
less than 7 percent, and if island-wide rallies planned for
March 16 successfully mobilize voters, a Frank Hsieh
come-from-behind win is not out of the question. End summary.



2. (C) AIT officers traveled March 10 to Taichung, Changhua
and Yunlin, the three most populous counties in central
Taiwan, and met with officials of both parties to discuss the
election atmosphere there. Central Taiwan is pivotal because
while the region has traditionally supported the KMT, the
2004 LY and presidential elections demonstrated that voter
loyalty here cannot be taken for granted. In 2004, all four
central Taiwan counties went into incumbent DPP President
Chen Shui-bian's column, providing the crucial margin of
Chen's victory. Both parties, therefore, see the area as a
highly strategic buffer zone between the KMT dominated north
and the DPP stronghold of the south, making central Taiwan
the critical tiebreaker.

Taichung County: KMT Confident, DPP Banking on March 16
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3. (C) Taichung is the largest county in central Taiwan and
is the region's economic powerhouse. While the county
supported President Chen 52-48 percent in the 2004
presidential election, the recently-concluded LY elections
saw a complete reversal of DPP fortunes. The KMT won all
five seats and outpolled the DPP 58-40 percent. DPP Taichung
County Deputy Executive Director Hsiao Yu-lin told AIT that
the fortunes of his party began to decline following the 2005
county magistrate election, which saw the KMT candidate win
by over 140 thousand votes. He described the mood of DPP
voters in Taichung County as "depressed" due to economic
issues and Taiwan's overall situation. Hsiao acknowledged
Frank Hsieh is running behind in the county, but was
reluctant to provide any numbers. He predicted voter turnout
will be in the neighborhood of 70-75 percent. Hsiao also
said the DPP can no longer rely on the youth vote as it did
in the past. He blamed the media for this phenomenon, saying
that most TV stations and newspapers were biased in favor of
the KMT, and almost always reported the DPP in a critical
light. Young people, however, are not switching support to
the KMT, rather they are avoiding politics altogether. A new
DPP ad campaign stresses the need for parents to educate
their children about Taiwan's difficult road to democracy,
which most youths take for granted.


4. (C) Hsiao complained that DPP presidential candidate
Frank Hsieh strictly controls all facets of his campaign from
his Taipei headquarters, resulting in less autonomy for local
organizations. He also worried that Hsieh's aggressive
debating tactics and relentless personal attacks on his KMT
opponent Ma Ying-jeou may backfire. However, he noted that
Hsieh's criticism of Ma's "one China market" has clearly
resonated among voters, because the driving issue in this
election is people's livelihood. Taichung County is home to
many farmers, who believe they cannot compete against Chinese
farmers and their much lower input costs. Hsiao views the
March 16 DPP "Reversing the Tide-Protecting Taiwan"
island-wide rallies as Frank Hsieh's last chance to turn
things around. Commemorative events are less effective than

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in previous years because young voters are increasingly
apathetic, but the "March Against the Wind" event of February
28 gave the Hsieh campaign a much-needed shot in the arm. To
do the job for Hsieh, however, the March 16 rallies will need
to mobilize at least a million voters.


5. (C) AIT met with Taichung County Magistrate Huang
Chung-sheng and Deputy Magistrate Chang Chuang-hsi, both KMT,
who confirmed that Frank Hsieh's attack on Ma's "one China
market" was having a measurable effect among voters. Deputy
Magistrate Chang said Ma must emphasize that China is only
one country among many in a broad foreign trade scheme. Ma
should use Singapore as an example of how Taiwan could open
up to the world, while still maintaining its sovereignty and
integrity. Magistrate Huang added that the DPP base will be
highly mobilized for this election because deep-Greens are
worried about the continued viability of the DPP should Frank
Hsieh lose. The LY election results have generated enthusiasm
among KMT supporters, which will carry over into the
presidential election. Due to the unpopularity of the Chen
administration and the perception that the DPP has governed
poorly, unaligned voters are leaning to Ma by a 6 to 4 ratio.
Magistrate Huang predicts voter turnout will reach 75-80
percent and that Ma will win Taichung County by a minimum of
50-60 thousand votes, perhaps by as many as 80 thousand.


6. (C) Huang expected voter turnout for the presidential
election to reach 80 percent, exceeding the LY turnout by 20
percent. This increase will come from the youth and business
sectors, two groups that lacked motivation to vote in the LY
election. He attributes Ma's appeal among young voters to
his attractiveness and charisma. Young people are turning
away from the DPP because the foremost issue on their minds
is the economy. The business community supports Ma because he
offers a sounder cross-Strait economic policy. Ma's
'long-stay' program among local people will also have a
positive effect at the ballot box. Deputy Magistrate Chang
commented that Ma had never lived or worked outside of
Taipei, and was unfamiliar with conditions in the rest of
Taiwan. The common people initially viewed him as someone far
removed from their daily lives. But Ma's long-stays have
helped him seem more approachable and down-to-earth,
according to Chang. Ma also learned to convincingly
articulate his plans to different levels of society, which
will help him win coveted unaligned voters.

Changhua County: DPP Sees Tide Turning Hsieh's Way
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7. (C) Changhua County is the second largest county in
central Taiwan, and is arguably the deepest blue, though
President Chen managed to win here in 2004 by 52-48 percent.
In 2005, however, the KMT ran away with the 2005 county
magistrate race by 100,000 votes, and in the 2008 LY
election, the KMT emerged victorious by a 68-32 margin,
easily winning the county's four seats. These successive big
victories have infused the KMT county apparatus with an
exuberant confidence heading into election day unmatched by
other regional KMT organizations. KMT Legal Director Mr.
Chuo Bo-chung predicts a win for Ma of at least 50,000 and as
much as 100,000 votes. He ascribes the turnaround to vastly
improved local party organization following the 2004
presidential defeat. He also noted that the special
characteristic of Changhua politics is that voters back a
candidate rather than a party. Ma is a star 'product' and
his Harvard pedigree plays well to a Changhua electorate that
highly values educational achievement. Ma is also boosted by
the popularity of the KMT county magistrate, who is credited
with making Changhua's unemployment rate the third-lowest in
Taiwan.


8. (C) Chuo told AIT that according to a poll conducted by
his local office, Ma's popularity over Hsieh is 47-18 percent
in Changhua County. However, he added that DPP voters
usually decline to participate in KMT polls, so Hsieh's
actual figures should be about double, or around 36 percent.
He admitted that the DPP's most effective campaign weapon has
been Hsieh's criticism of Ma's "one China market," which has
helped consolidate the DPP base and made inroads into

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unaligned voters.


9. (C) DPP Changhua County Chairman Liang Tseng-hsiang told
AIT that the political climate is 'cold' largely due to
negative media coverage of the DPP. However, the situation
for Frank Hsieh is not as bad as it seems. DPP internal
polls show Ma with a mere 5-6 percent lead, and word on the
street is positive. Ma is on the defensive regarding his
"one China market" proposal, and women oppose it most of all.
This is because they are worried about competition from PRC
women for husbands, and as managers of households, they are
concerned about an influx of low quality, dangerous products
from the PRC. If the March 16 rallies succeed in firing up
the DPP base, Liang predicted Frank Hsieh could win the
election. Liang expects an increase of 20 percent in turnout
over the LY elections, with at least 70 percent of those for
Frank Hsieh. He alleged that vote-buying by the KMT was
rampant in the LY elections, and it will also buy at least 20
percent of its votes in the presidential election, mostly in
the countryside. However, he expects Hsieh to win by 100,000
votes island-wide. The DPP's greatest fear is that the U.S.
will provide Ma with fake certification attesting that his
green card is invalid. Liang is also convinced that Ma
possesses a British passport.

Yunlin County: In the DPP Column, But by How Much?
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10. (C) Yunlin is the poorest of the central Taiwan
counties, and is the most likely to stay in the Green camp.
KMT Yunlin County Chairman Hsu Shu-po told AIT that KMT
factional strife had cost the party the county magistrate
election in 2005. However, the two factions have united for
the presidential election, and he is hopeful the KMT will
break even with the DPP. In the 2004 presidential election,
the KMT lost by 80,000 votes. Hsu has planned a March 13
afternoon rally for 5,000 women voters that will feature a
personal appearance by Ma Ying-jeou. Each woman will get to
shake Ma's hand, and Hsu believes that this could result in
an extra 50,000 votes for Ma, as the women will rave about
the experience to their friends. Turnout of female voters is
typically half that of men, but Ma's good looks should change
that, according to Hsu. Women voters also feel the economic
pinch of higher prices and stagnant salaries more than men,
because they run the households, so Ma's stress on economic
issues will attract their support. Hsu plans to mobilize
1,600 vans and buses to get out the vote to Yunlin's five
hundred voting stations. He expects a 75 percent voter
turnout, an increase of 17 percent over the LY election, with
the additional voters breaking 6-4 in favor of the opposition
DPP.


11. (C) Hsu noted that due to Yunlin's poverty,
approximately one million Yunlin natives live and work in
other parts of Taiwan, primarily the north. He expects 75
percent of those who are eligible to vote will return to do
so. Students will favor Ma by a 6-4 margin, not because they
are enamored of the KMT, but because they are disappointed
with the DPP and worried about their future employment
prospects. Elderly voters, 25 percent of the electorate, are
Hsu's greatest concern. These voters, Hsu argued, are mostly
uneducated farmers, and are most vulnerable to Hsieh's scare
tactics about the "one China market". They are also most
easily swayed by appeals to Taiwan identity. Hsu will attempt
to counteract this through personal connections and trust he
has built among local residents, the key to winning votes in
the central and southern parts of Taiwan. Hsu conceded that
if the KMT wins, it will be because of the DPP's poor
performance over the past eight years, not voter confidence
in a renewed KMT. If Ma wins, Hsu predicted he will need to
use his first term to strengthen alliances within the party
before he can effect meaningful reforms.


12. (C) DPP Yunlin County Chairman Hsu Ken-wei conceded that
Ma is the current favorite, but insisted Hsieh has cut Ma's
lead to 7 points, according to internal DPP polls. The "one
China market" debate has proven highly resonant with voters
in central Taiwan, much more so than Ma's green card issue.
Hsu claimed the Ma camp has outspent Hsieh by a factor of

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ten, due to its massive party resources. The DPP cannot
compete in an advertisement spending war, and so must rely on
mobilizing its base and appealing to voters, mostly greens,
who sat out the LY elections. He admitted the DPP has
struggled to retain its advantage in the youth vote.
Students are indifferent to politics, lamented Hsu, because
Taiwan's education system has failed to cultivate their
Taiwan identity. The March 16 rallies are crucial for Frank
Hsieh, and Hsu expects to mobilize up to 30,000 participants
in his county.

An Academic's View
--------------


13. (C) Professor Joseph Tsai of Chiang Kai-shek University
in Chiayi told AIT that Frank Hsieh's critique of Ma's "one
China market" had revitalized the Hsieh campaign. He
believes Hsieh had no idea this issue would strike such a
strong chord among voters, but once he realized its
effectiveness, Hsieh made it his campaign's main theme. Up
to that point, Tsai noted, Hsieh had focused primarily on
Ma's "green card", and his highly negative tone was not
well-received among unaligned voters, whom Tsai estimates at
15-20 percent. The island-wide rallies on March 16, Tsai
continued, will be critical for DPP hopes, and if Hsieh wins
it will be by the slimmest of margins. Whoever wins Taichung,
Yunlin and Nantou counties will win the presidency, predicted
Tsai. He also noted that if Hsieh is able to present solid

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evidence that Ma still has a valid green card, he would win
the election. Otherwise, Ma will prevail.

Comment
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14. (C) While the KMT is likely to prevail in at least three
of the four central Taiwan counties, recent events suggest
the KMT's margin of victory could be much smaller than
initially expected. Reaction against what Hsieh labels Ma's
"one China market" continues to invigorate the DPP base and
reverberate among unaligned voters. The outcome of the
election may very well now hinge on how successfully the DPP
mobilizes its supporters for the March 16 rallies.
YOUNG