TAIWAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION COUNTDOWN: ONE WEEK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000365

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/04/2023
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: TAIWAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION COUNTDOWN: ONE WEEK
TO GO


Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: In a world of suspect and politicized
polling, one prominent pollster gives KMT candidate Ma
Ying-jeou a 26 point lead over the DPP's Frank Hsieh, while
the KMT and the DPP internal tracking polls rate the contest
as within 10 points. Most still feel the race remains Ma
Ying-jeou's to lose, though Hsieh campaign leaders tell us
their candidate still has a fighting chance. Hsieh will hope
to gain ground from the blunder by four KMT legislators who
forced their way into Hsieh's campaign headquarters building
on March 12. The two candidates will participate in the
final policy presentation event (quasi-debate) organized by
the Central Election Commission the evening of March 14.
Both the DPP and KMT are planning to hold their largest
island-wide campaign activities on March 16. Each hopes to
capitalize on the third anniversary of China's passage of the
anti-seccession on March 14, 2005 to energize supporters
heading toward election day on March 22. With a week to go,
we can expect more twists and turns in the parties' dash to
the finish line. End Summary.

Polls Differ on Size of Ma's Lead
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2. (C) A leading pro-KMT pollster's tracking poll shows KMT
candidate Ma Ying-jeou leading the DPP's Frank Hsieh by 26
points as of March 13. Other pro-Blue media polls, which
have significant technical flaws, also give Ma a wide lead.
However, the Hsieh campaign's internal polling indicates the
gap is less than 6 points, and some KMT officials have
recently suggested a gap of 8-10 points (Septel).


3. (C) Former Foreign Minister Tien Hung-mao told the
Director the race is still Ma Ying-jeou's to lose, though
Tien acknowledged that it is difficult to assess the impact
of the "one China market" issue with which Frank Hsieh is
vigorously attacking the Ma-Hsiao campaign. Hsieh has been
telling his own campaign staff that internal polling shows
him only 3 or 4 points behind Ma, but Tien believes Hsieh may
be trying to boost campaign morale, and the real spread
closer to 10 points. At a DPP briefing for foreign
representatives on March 10, International Affairs Director
Bikhim Hsiao acknowledged Hsieh was trailing Ma, but by a
smaller gap than reported by the press. Hsieh has been
gaining ground on Ma since the January legislative election
defeat, but his campaign would have to hit a ninth inning
"home run" to pull ahead, baseball fan Hsiao admitted.

Melee At Hsieh Campaign Headquarters: Taiwan's "Watergate?"
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4. (C) The first significant confrontation in the campaign
occurred on Wednesday afternoon, March 12, when four KMT
legislators went to Hsieh campaign headquarters (with media
and a semi-coerced Finance Minister Ho Chih-chin in tow) and
tried to enter the candidate's personal office area on the
13th floor to investigate rumors the Hsieh campaign was being
provided office space gratis by a government-connected
financial institution. After failing to gain entrance to
Hsieh's office area, the legislators proceeded to a lower
floor where they were blocked in the elevator for half an
hour by irate Hsieh campaign staffers, who called the police
to report an illegal entry. The police escorted three of the
legislators through an angry crowd to a police car, the
fourth escaping in the Legislative Yuan (LY) bus that had
brought them to the site. Legislator Alex Fai received a
punch in the head en route to the police car. Under
direction by campaign director Lee Ying-yuan (who was not
present when the legislators first showed up),DPP staffers
and supporters blocked the police car from leaving for two
hours, insisting that a prosecutor come to the scene to
investigate a "crime in progress." After the prosecutor
arrived to receive the complaint against the legislators, the
police car, whose front window had been smashed, was finally
allowed to leave. The whole event received very extensive
coverage by the media, especially television.


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5. (C) During an evening campaign rally on March 12 Hsieh
condemned the act as an example of "one party dominance,"
saying it showed why citizens should be concerned about
giving the KMT too much power, and urged voters to censure
the KMT by voting for the DPP on March 22. Hsieh campaign
manager Y.Y. Lee claimed the incident was "more serious than
Watergate." The DPP ran full-page advertisements in all the
major newspapers the following day that showed the
legislators trapped in the elevator smiling as if they just
committed a practical joke, with the headline reading "the
insult is too hard to endure" (qiren taishen).


6. (C) Upon learning the facts of the incident, Ma urged
people on all sides to remain calm and apologized for the
conduct of the four legislators. Alex Fai, who led the
foray, resigned as KMT caucus secretary general that evening,
and today (March 14) resigned from the KMT. In addition to
holding press conferences and issuing statements of apology,
the KMT suspended the membership rights of the three other
legislators on March 14. Both Blue and Green evening talk
shows have focused heavily on the incident and related
developments. A joke going around town says that "two
bullets" (i.e., the gunshot wounding of President Chen and VP
Lu) cost the KMT the 2004 presidential election, while "four
morons" (the KMT legislators) may cost the party the 2008
contest.


7. (C) KMT Sec-Gen Wu Den-yih told AIT on March 13 that the
legislators' stunt has given the DPP a golden opportunity to
paint the KMT as arrogant and could cost Ma several
percentage points at the presidential polls. However, Wu
maintained, the DPP's image has also been tarnished because
someone in the crowd punched Fai and others smashed a police
car windshield during the incident. Still, Wu told us that
this was just the kind of mistake the KMT could not afford to
make at this late stage of the game. Although the incident
has damaged the KMT, contacts on both the Green and Blue side
have told AIT that Ma has dealt better and more expeditiously
with this crisis than the previous problems he has
encountered.

KMT Decides to Boycott DPP, But Not KMT, Referendum
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8. (C) Prior to the March 12 incident, KMT Chairman Wu
Poh-hsiung announced that the KMT Central Standing Committee
had voted to boycott the DPP UN referendum while supporting
its own referendum proposal. In a nod to such key players as
Taichung Mayor Jason Hu and KMT Honorary Chairman Lien Chan
and other referendum opponents, the party announced it would
"understand and respect" the decision of those supporters who
chose to boycott both referenda in order to avoid being
politically manipulated by the DPP government. Wu explained
that the KMT will run media ads calling on voters to support
the KMT referendum and boycott the DPP referendum. Wu also
stated that the KMT will continue its support for passage by
the Legislative Yuan (LY) of a resolution calling for Taiwan
participation in the UN and other international
organizations. (Comment: This widely expected KMT decision
to urge supporters to boycott the DPP's UN referendum makes
the chances of passing the first threshold (participation by
50 percent of eligible voters) increasingly remote. Its
equivocal position on its own version, however, gives the DPP
a chance to question the KMT's commitment to "Taiwan
identity." End Comment.)


9. (C) Tien Hung-mao said he does not expect the UN
referenda to pass. He find this regrettable, since Beijing
is likely to exploit the measure's failure to claim falsely
that Taiwan's people do not care about joining the UN. Tien
acknowledged, however, that USG pressure on the UN referendum
issue had been appropriate and necessary. Bikhim Hsiao
stressed that Hsieh, if he wins, would be cautious in
interpreting the UN referendum in the unlikely event it
passes on March 22. Hsieh would present the referendum as an
expression of the Taiwan people's desire for greater
participation in the international community, and not a
change in the national title or step toward de jure
independence.

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Last Presidential Debate on Friday
--------------


10. (C) Friday evening, March 14, the two candidates will
participate in the final session of a series of three policy
presentation events (quasi-debates) organized by the Central
Election Commission (CEC). The candidates will have two
turns (15 minutes each) to present their policy views; there
is no question-and-answer component. Hsieh, the underdog,
may try to challenge Ma over the recent incident at his
headquarters involving KMT legislators and Ma's cross-Strait
common market concept. Political observers suggest that most
voters have already made up their minds on the candidates and
doubt that this final debate will have much impact on the
race.

Major Rallies Planned for Weekend
--------------


11. (C) Both the DPP and KMT will hold large-scale
island-wide rallies on March 16, taking advantage of the
third anniversary of China's passage of the anti-seccession
on March 14, 2005, to energize supporters and boost
enthusiasm going into the final week before election day.
The DPP hopes to mobilize one million people for its event,
which will feature afternoon marches starting at 3:14 p.m.
between 200 points spaced at 5 km intervals along the length
of north-south highways on the west and east coasts.
Participants will walk counter-clockwise, turning their caps
backwards, to symbolize "reversing the tide." Slogans for
the march are: "Say no to one-party dominance, say yes to
checks and balances; say no to Chinese hegemony, say yes to
joining the UN; say no to the common market, say yes to job
security." Lee Ying-yuan explained to AIT that the DPP event
will be upbeat, and he said the DPP is hiring helicopters so
that the media can get impressive shots of the island-wide
event. Hsieh, who will be at the march starting point in
Taitung at sunrise, will walk a short distance in the
afternoon, and he will attend an evening rally in Taichung
City.


12. (C) To try to dampen the effects of the DPP event, the
KMT will hold its own series of marches and rallies in major
cities also in the afternoon of March 16 with the theme of
"Taiwan moving forward," urging voters not to give the DPP
another chance to keep Taiwan back. The marches will start
at 3:00 p.m., with participants stopping at 3:14 p.m. to
reverse their caps and make a "V" sign with their hands.
Next, participants will chant "oppose dirty tricks" at 3:19
p.m., symbolizing the incident on March 19 (2004) when
President Chen and VP Annette Lu suffered minor wounds from
an apparent assassination attempt while campaigning in
Tainan. Many KMT supporters continue to suspect the shooting
was a trick staged by Chen to win the 2004 presidential
election. The marchers will converge on points throughout
the island and hold a series of afternoon rallies. Ma and
other KMT leaders will participate in a large evening rally
in Tainan City.

Comment
--------------


13. (C) Both parties will use their March 16 activities, the
largest of the campaign, as pep rallies to boost enthusiasm
and turnout on election day. In 2004, one important factor
in President Chen's victorious reelection bid was a highly
successful island-wide rally that the DPP held on February

28. During the final stage of the race, the Hsieh campaign
will continue to play up the intrusion at its headquarters by
KMT legislators to underscore its theme that a too powerful
KMT will run amok unless it is checked by a DPP president.
Continued KMT damage-control efforts make clear that Ma and
other party leaders realize the serious consequences this
issue could have in the final stage of the election campaign.
YOUNG