CAMPAIGN DIRECTOR YEH CHU-LAN CAUTIOUSLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000341

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/12/2018
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: CAMPAIGN DIRECTOR YEH CHU-LAN CAUTIOUSLY
OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FRANK HSIEH'S CHANCES IN THE ELECTION


Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Presidential Office Secretary General Yeh
Chu-lan told the Director on March 12 that the two major
issues in the final stage of Frank Hsieh's campaign will be
opposition to KMT candidate Ma Ying-jeou's cross-Strait
common market proposal and the need for political balance,
given the KMT's 3/4 legislative majority. In opposing the
cross-Strait common market, Hsieh is appealing to the DPP's
base supporters, while stressing the need for checks and
balances is intended to attract the independent voters that
Hsieh will need to the win the March 22 presidential
election. Yeh also confirmed that Hsieh is now downplaying
the party's UN referendum in his campaign strategy.
According to Yeh, who is Hsieh's overall campaign director,
Hsieh has cut Ma's lead to about 10 points in internal DPP
polling. The party hopes to boost enthusiasm and voter
turnout with large-scale island-wide rallies on March 16 in a
last push to close the gap. End Summary.


2. (C) The Director discussed DPP candidate Frank Hsieh's
election campaign with Presidential Office Secretary General
Yeh Chu-lan on March 12. Yeh, who is also Hsieh's overall
campaign director, said that the DPP must hold on to its base
in southern Taiwan to win the election, but will also need to
fight for votes in the north, especially Taipei County. Yeh
attributed the DPP's major defeat in the January 12
Legislative Yuan (LY) elections to the low turnout by DPP
supporters, who were disappointed with President Chen's
performance. By contrast, the KMT succeeded in mobilizing
all of its supporters to vote in the LY elections. The KMT
has developed a dense local network after being in power for
50 years, and it relies on organization and vote buying to
win local-level elections. Many of the winning KMT
legislative candidates were quite wealthy, Yeh added.


3. (C) In contrast to the KMT, Yeh acknowledged, the DPP's
party organization is still weak at the local level, and many
DPP officials have not done a very good job in claiming
credit for government-funded local projects. In the
countryside, the people still identify the government with
the KMT, an image built up during the 50 years of KMT rule.
In addition, people are more interested in purely local
projects, and the public does not fully appreciate the Chen
administration's achievements, for example, building highways
and setting up the Taichung high tech industrial park.


4. (C) For the presidential election, the KMT has been
spending vast sums on a sustained TV ad campaign against the
DPP, Yeh said. The DPP, which does not have the resources to
compete head-to-head with the KMT, is reserving its ads for
the final and most important stage of the campaign. Although
Ma's green card is not the campaign's most important issue,
many people do have concerns about Ma's actions and behavior,
Yeh said. In the past, she noted, late President Chiang
Ching-kuo as well as Ma himself both stressed the importance
of political figures not having competing loyalties. Ma used
to be packaged as 100 percent perfect, but this has proven
false, and he has now been taken off his pedestal. Yeh also
noted that the Hsieh campaign is downplaying the UN
referendum as a campaign issue.


5. (C) The major campaign issue to mobilize the DPP base is
the "one China market" or cross-Strait common market, Yeh
noted. The unique feature of the presidential campaign is
that it involves the future of Taiwan, whether it maintains
its current independence or moves toward ultimate
unification. The KMT charter specifies the ultimate goal of
unification, which was also a goal strongly upheld by Ma's
father, and Ma himself has a decided tilt toward China. If
Ma is elected president, there will be a superficial
improvement in cross-Strait relations, but in fact this will
mean the very rapid Hong Kong-ization of Taiwan, Yeh argued.
Ma is misguided in citing the EU as a model for Taiwan's
economic relations with China, Yeh maintained, pointing out
that the EU does not have a large power that claims
sovereignty and targets missiles against another member.


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6. (C) While Taiwan's economic indicators are all right, Yeh
said, there is a problem with imbalance in wealth and
opportunities. The move of many factories to China has
affected employment here, and it is hard for many young
people to find jobs. However, President Chen did not cause
these problems, which are the result of the rise of China and
global economic trends. Although the KMT is smart
politically to attack the DPP on economic issues, Yeh doubted
that the KMT, which puts all its hope in China, could do any
better than the DPP.


7. (C) The DPP's central appeal to independent swing voters
is the concern about over-concentration of political power in
one party, Yeh noted. After the KMT won control of 3/4 of
the seats in the LY, intellectuals and other independents
have become concerned that a KMT presidency would result in a
lack of checks and balances, harmful to Taiwan's democratic
development. The DPP assumption is that its base will
deliver 45 percent of the votes in the presidential election,
while the KMT base will generate a similar percentage for Ma.
Therefore, the competition is for the remaining 10 percent
of the electorate in the middle. Yeh said that Hsieh has
been focusing on these middle voters over the past three
months. The lopsided results of the LY elections has given
Hsieh an opportunity, because voters in the middle are
worried about the lack of checks and balances that would
result from a KMT presidency.


8. (C) According to Yeh, as of last Sunday, Ma's lead over
Hsieh in the DPP's internal polling was about 10 points. The
key for a DPP victory will be whether the party can boost the
turnout rate to a high level, hopefully 80 percent, bringing
all of its supporters to the polling stations. Although the
election atmosphere is still cold, the DPP hopes that its
large-scale rallies on March 16 will boost the enthusiasm of
its supporters and have a contagious effect on the
electorate.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) Yeh appears cautiously optimistic that the DPP can
still win, if the party can generate the same high levels of
excitement and enthusiasm it achieved in past victories,
including the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections. The
DPP's island-wide rallies on Sunday, March 16, are intended
to whip up the enthusiasm of the base. However, the KMT will
try to dampen DPP excitement by mounting its own series of
counter-rallies at the same time on March 16. We expect both
parties to fight this campaign hard to the finish.
YOUNG