CONCERNS IN SOUTHERN TAIWAN ABOUT DPP PROSPECTS IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000326

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/04/2023
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: CONCERNS IN SOUTHERN TAIWAN ABOUT DPP PROSPECTS IN
THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION


Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reason 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Some DPP officials and pro-DPP political
experts in southern Taiwan express pessimism about the DPP's
chances of winning the 2008 presidential election. Chiayi
County Magistrate Chen Ming-wen (DPP) told the Deputy
Director on March 8 that at this late stage in the campaign
DPP candidate Frank Hsieh needs to come up with more issues
like his attacks on the "one-China common market" that have
resonance with southern voters; otherwise he will need a
"miracle" to win. One political expert in a separate meeting
said morale among southern DPP supporters remains low and
many political families in Chiayi have been tilting toward Ma
in hopes of enjoying the spoils of a KMT administration.
Another political expert emphasized that Hsieh's attacks on
the common market and Ma's U.S. green card were lowering
support for Ma in the south, but if pushed too far, negative
campaigning could backfire and scare off independent voters.
End Summary.


2. (C) In a meeting with the DDIR on March 8, Chiayi County
Magistrate Chen Ming-wen (DPP) admitted that DPP presidential
candidate Frank Hsieh will have a difficult time winning the
presidential election on March 22. Chen said that the KMT
has learned from its past campaign failures and become better
at emphasizing its affiliation with Taiwan. This
"localization" of the KMT, Chen explained, has neutralized
the DPP's ability to effectively use Taiwan identity-related
issues in this election. At the same time, he noted that the
DPP never developed grassroots organizations that could match
the KMT's.


3. (C) The KMT has also controlled the campaign agenda from
the outset, keeping the focus on the economy, Chen noted.
Having lost the initiative on this issue, Hsieh has had to
stake out positions similar to Ma's. The corruption scandals
surrounding President Chen, his family, and staff that broke
over two years ago, moreover, have tarnished the DPP and
Hsieh by extension, dramatically weakening the effectiveness
of the DPP's use of the "anti-corruption" card. Despite Ma's
clean image, Chen Ming-wen argued, Ma is only "beautiful
wrapping" over a KMT political machine of entrenched
corruption. Chen added that as president Ma would have a
difficult time keeping KMT corruption in check.


4. (C) Chen told DDIR that the only bright spot in Hsieh's
campaign so far has been the attack on Ma's "one-China common
market" idea, which has increased anxiety about Ma's
cross-Strait policies among light Green and independent
voters. Questions about Ma's past U.S. green card, Chen
added, are only effective in energizing the core DPP base,
but are too abstract and removed from everyday concerns to
have much resonance with other voters in Chiayi and southern
Taiwan. Apart from these two issues, Chen said Hsieh needs
to come up with other issues that have resonance with
southern voters; otherwise he will need a "miracle" to win.



5. (C) Chen attributed the relatively "cold" election
atmosphere to Hsieh's laid-back and unaggressive campaign
style, adding that he was concerned this approach was not
energizing enough of the DPP base and could cost Hsieh the
election. Although Chen said he could not fully explain
Hsieh's strategy, he speculated that perhaps Hsieh believes
minimizing political confrontation and dampening enthusiasm
will reduce turnout by KMT supporters in the north more than
the DPP core in the south. Chen expects the race to heat up
in the last week and is hoping the island-wide rallies on
March 16 to oppose Beijing's anti-secession law will boost
the enthusiasm of DPP supporters. However, Chen added that
the KMT is preparing its own activities, which are likely to
offset the effects of the DPP event.


6. (C) In a separate meeting, National Chung Cheng
University (NCCU) Director of the Institute for Strategy and
International Affairs Soong Hsiek-wen told the DDIR that the
political winds are shifting in favor of Ma and that
grassroots politicians are bending in the same direction in
hopes of enjoying the spoils of a KMT administration. After

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the DPP's drubbing in the January legislative election,
morale among party supporters in the south remains low and
local DPP leaders have not been able to mobilize their base.
The DPP's political infrastructure in Chiayi has been
severely weakened because the county split its two
legislative seats between the DPP and KMT and the city's sole
seat went to the KMT, added Soong.


7. (C) NCCU Professor of Political Science Joseph Tsai
struck a more optimistic note with the DDIR, emphasizing that
Hsieh's attacks on the "one-China market" and the green card
issue were changing people's positive image of Ma and
lowering Ma's polling numbers. Tsai believed the negative
nature of the campaign could backfire, however, if pushed too
far. In contrast to some other AIT contacts, Tsai said he
has not seen a significant shift among young people away from
the DPP to the KMT and expects them to turnout in larger
numbers to vote in favor of Hsieh on March 22. Tsai added
that because the KMT will win by a bigger margin in the north
than in 2004, Hsieh will need to improve upon President
Chen's strong showing in southern Taiwan to compensate.


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