TAIWAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION COUNTDOWN: TWO WEEKS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000317

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/04/2023
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: TAIWAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION COUNTDOWN: TWO WEEKS
TO GO

REF: TAIPEI 00280

Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reason 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Two weeks before the March 22 presidential
election, KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou continues
to hold a wide lead over DPP candidate Frank Hsieh, according
to most polls. While a number of AIT's contacts predict the
race will tighten in the final days, almost all are expecting
Ma to win in the end, because voters are disappointed with
the DPP government's poor economic performance and
corruption. While Hsieh's attacks on Ma's character have not
been very effective, our contacts say, his criticism of Ma's
"one China" cross-Strait economic policy is gaining some
traction in the south. Political posturing on the UN
referenda continues, though the possibility of a last-minute
compromise that would postpone or take the referenda off the
ballot on March 22 appears slim. Following presidential
debates this weekend, the two parties will hold their major
campaign rallies next Sunday, March 16. End Summary.

Ma Ying-jeou the Frontrunner
--------------


2. (C) Two weeks before the March 22 presidential election,
KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou continues to hold a
wide lead over the DPP's Frank Hsieh in most polls. While
some AIT contacts predict the race will tighten in the final
two weeks, almost all expect that Ma will win, barring some
new and unexpected major incident or development. Our most
reliable pollster recently put Ma's lead at 18 points, while
media polls, which are flawed, give Ma a 20-37 point lead at
this stage. Some KMT and DPP officials have suggested the
race is considerably closer, with Ma leading by 10 points or
less, but our contacts suspect both parties may be hyping the
competitiveness of the race to boost turnout by their
respective supporters. Ma economic adviser P.K. Chiang told
DIR March 7 that the margin is around 10 percent and that the
Ma camp remains concerned that last minute surprises could
hurt them. Two well-regarded experts on Taiwan's electoral
politics, Professor Chu Yun-han (a Ma adviser) and Academia
Sinica scholar Wu Chung-li separately predicted to AIT that
Ma will win the election by a 57-43 margin.

Frank Hsieh's Challenges
--------------


3. (C) National Chengchi University (NCCU) Political Science
Professor Liu I-chou told AIT that Ma is likely to win
because the voters, unhappy with the DPP's poor economic
performance and corruption, desire a change in government.
The same sentiment caused the party's disastrous showing in
the January legislative elections. In 2004, the DPP kept
supporters in line by arguing it needed more time to show
results. After 8 years of DPP rule, this argument no longer
works, Liu stressed. Liu attributed the relatively cold
election atmosphere to the widespread expectation that Ma
will win.


4. (C) The DPP can no longer count on youth support, which
it relied on in winning the presidential elections in 2000
and 2004, Liu noted. According to Liu's estimate, young
voters favored the DPP 2-1 in the past, while the current
generation of young voters favor the KMT 6-4. In addition to
disenchantment with the DPP, youth are attracted by the
clean, upright image of Ma, in contrast to Hsieh, who is
viewed as "tricky," Liu explained.


5. (C) In a separate meeting, Ma adviser and Chiang
Ching-kuo Foundation President Chu Yun-han told AIT that the
results of the presidential election will reflect the voters'
dissatisfaction with the Chen administration rather than
their evaluation of what Hsieh and Ma have to offer. Chu
seconded the important role that youth, worried about long-
stagnating starting salaries, are playing in giving Ma the
advantage. Although there is little difference between Hsieh
and Ma's economic policies, Chu observed that Hsieh has not
been able to disassociate himself from the perception that
Chen and the DPP have mismanaged the economy.

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Negative Campaigning Dominates...
--------------


6. (C) Media coverage over the past week has focused heavily
on DPP attacks against Ma's character and integrity,
including claims that Ma might have both U.S. and British
citizenship, and accusations that he would "sell out"
Taiwan's economic interests to CHINA if elected president.
Liu I-chou suggested that DPP attacks on Ma's character and
integrity have not been effective as the public still sees Ma
as much stronger than Hsieh in this category. Hsieh is
gaining some traction with his criticism of Ma's "one-China
common market" policy, however, as underground radio stations
spread the message to the less well-off areas in southern
Taiwan, but this may not be enough to make a difference in
the election results, Liu added. For its part, the KMT has
launched a negative advertising blitz, aimed at undermining
Hsieh's record as Kaohsiung mayor. The most unusual ad of
the week shows a "very pregnant" Ma Ying-jeou laying out his
women's policies.

...and Can be Hazardous to Your Health
--------------


7. (C) Popular TV talkshows, always partisan, are becoming
even more hysterical than normal during the campaign silly
season. This media-generated frenzy is exacting a
psychological toll on those who follow politics.
Psychiatrists report a rise in the number of people seeking
treatment for anxiety and depression-related illnesses caused
by election activities. Doctors are urging emotionally
unstable viewers to stay away from TV political talkshows
which dominate the airwaves every evening from 9 to 11.

UN Referenda Update
--------------


8. (C) The CEC hosted rounds 2-4 of the debates on the DPP
and KMT UN referenda on March 1, 2, and 5; the fifth and
final round is scheduled for March 8. Rounds 2 and 3 each
featured two separate half-hour presentations defending the
DPP and the KMT referenda, and these presentations were
rather academic and dispassionate. During round 4,
proponents and opponents of the two referenda took turns
presenting their views, answering a series of questions
fielded by an expert panel. Little new ground was broken
beyond the previous debates reported in reftel.


9. (C) Over the past week, Central Election Commission (CEC)
Chairman Chang Cheng-hsiung told the legislature that at
least 20 days would be needed to prepare a defensive
referendum, laying to rest any possibility of holding a
defensive referendum together with the March 22 presidential
election. DPP Taipei City Chairman Lee Cheng-yi told AIT
that at a March 4 DPP campaign strategy meeting, Hsieh and
others had brushed aside a call by some to promote the DPP UN
referendum as one of the major campaign themes in the final
weeks. Although Hsieh does not want to use the UN referendum
as a major theme of his campaign, a possible KMT decision to
call on its supporters to boycott the referendum balloting
could force Hsieh to take a more proactive stance, Lee added.



10. (C) In a new twist on the referenda issue, President
Chen and TSU Chairman Huang Kun-hui floated the idea of
asking the LY to lower the participation threshold for
referendum validity (now 50 percent of eligible voters) in
return for postponing the two existing UN referenda until
after the presidential election. The KMT did not take the
bait, however, immediately urging the DPP to first postpone
the referenda before the LY would consider altering the law.


11. (C) Over the past week pro-Blue or KMT-allied groups
have made a series of statements opposing the UN referenda.
Taichung Mayor Jason Hu and former Premier Tang Fei held
separate press conferences on March 6 urging voters to
boycott the balloting. A group of retired diplomats led by
former FM Ding Mou-shih also issued a joint statement to do

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the same. These efforts, in addition to newspaper ad
campaigns by the New Party and other deep-Blue groups
opposing the UN referenda, may put pressure on the KMT
leadership ahead of a meeting scheduled for March 12 that
will take up the issue. KMT interlocutors tell AIT the main
sticking point is Ma Ying-jeou himself, who is concerned a
boycott could cost him votes on March 22.

Upcoming Plans and Events
--------------


12. (C) DPP Taipei City Chairman Lee Cheng-yi told AIT that
participants of a top-level DPP meeting he attended in
Taichung on March 4 to plan election strategy agreed the
major themes for the remainder of Hsieh's campaign will be:
1) attacking the KMT's "one CHINA market," 2) challenging
Ma's character, particularly, his proclivity to change his
story, and 3) holding a large-scale island-wide rally on
March 16 to stimulate the enthusiasm of the Green supporters.


13. (C) The candidates will participate in the final series
of presidential debates on March 7, 9, and 14. The March 7
and 14 exchanges are venues for candidates to present policy
views. The March 9 event is the second and final debate
organized by five local media outlets and offers more
opportunities for direct exchanges between the candidates.
In previous debates Ma has done better than expected and held
his own against Hsieh, who has not performed well, in the
view of DPP Taipei City Chairman Lee Cheng-yi. Chu Yun-han
estimates that 80 percent of voters have already made up
their minds on the candidates and therefore, in his view, the
remaining debates are unlikely to have much impact on voters.



14. (C) Candidates will campaign over the weekend and the
parties will hold small-scale rallies at different locations
throughout the island. Both parties plan large-scale
campaign rallies for next weekend, the final Sunday before
the election, which falls on a Saturday. Both the DPP and
KMT will hold large island-wide campaign activities on March
16, taking advantage of the third anniversary of China's
passage of the anti-seccession. The parties will use those
events to energize supporters and boost enthusiasm going into
the final week before election day.
YOUNG