KMT LOOKS TO MAKE INROADS IN DPP SOUTHERN HEARTLAND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000292

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/04/2018
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: KMT LOOKS TO MAKE INROADS IN DPP SOUTHERN HEARTLAND


Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: As the campaign enters its final stage, the
KMT believes that presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou's
campaigning and "long-stay" program in the south will boost
his support among voters in the traditional DPP "heartland."
Local KMT and DPP officials say Ma's prospects are being
helped by southern voters' growing concerns about the state
of the economy, unemployment, and education. Although none
predict Ma will win an outright majority of the southern
vote, they believe Hsieh faces an uphill battle to replicate
President Chen's strong performance in 2004, when he carried
the south by a margin of 670,000 votes. KMT officials expect
more "surprise" attacks on Ma's credibility from the Hsieh
campaign, but they say Ma is prepared to deflect such
attacks, which they think do not have a lasting effect on
voter preferences. Ma is more popular than Hsieh with young
southern voters, the officials observe, a shift that could
help the KMT cut into the DPP support base in this pan-Green
region in future elections. End Summary.

Southern Taiwan Becoming a Key Electoral Battleground
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2. (C) The KMT has succeeded in turning southern Taiwan,
traditionally a DPP stronghold, into a key battleground in
the March 22 presidential election. KMT officials told
visiting AIT/T poloffs, accompanied by AIT/K, that the party
and candidate Ma have paid more attention to wooing southern
voters than in the past, noting that strong showings in the
recent legislative elections show the KMT has been gaining
ground in what is considered the DPP's traditional
"heartland." KMT and DPP officials say southern voters are
turning to Ma more than in the past because of their
heightened concerns over the economy, unemployment, and
education.


3. (C) KMT and DPP officials from Kaohsiung City recently
told AIT that DPP candidate Frank Hsieh needs to win the
south by at least one million votes, carrying Kaohsiung City
by at least 100,000 votes, in order to win the March 22
presidential election. However, DPP City Councilor Chou
Ling-wen predicted that Hsieh will probably win Kaohsiung
City by only 20,000 votes, far short of the 100,000 margin he
would need to help offset expected losses in the north. DPP
Kaohsiung City Chairman Chang Chih-ming, on the other hand,
projected Hsieh could win the city by as many as 150,000
votes if a ground swell of support materializes in the final
weeks of the election. KMT City Chairman Hsu Fu-ming said
that the party's goal is for Ma to win 51 percent of the vote
in Kaohsiung City. Ma's Kaohsiung campaign spokesman Lo
Shih-hsiung suggested Ma could win Kaohsiung City by 3 to 5
percentage points, roughly the same margin of victory the KMT
garnered in the January 12 legislative elections. (Note:
Running for reelection in 2004, President Chen Shui-bian
carried Kaohsiung City by about 102,000 votes, while Hsieh
won his reelection as Kaohsiung Mayor in 2002 by 25,000
votes. More recently, however, the 2006 mayoral election was
a virtual dead heat, while the KMT bested the DPP by 20,000
votes in party preference voting in the January 12
legislative elections.)

Ma Appealing to Young Voters' Pocketbooks
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4. (C) Ma's positions on issues most important to young
voters, particularly income and job opportunities, are
helping him make inroads into this voting bloc, which is
expected to be a significant part of the turn-out in the
region. DPP City Councilor Chou Ling-wen, whose constituency
includes many young voters, told AIT that Ma's star appeal
and young voters' concerns about the economy are helping Ma
gain support from this group, which in previous elections has
supported the DPP. Chou estimated that youth and
college-aged voters (ages 20-29) now favor the KMT 60-40
percent, and she expects the turnout rate for young voters in
the presidential election to be about 40-50 percent. In a
separate meeting, Professor Liao Dachi of National Sun
Yat-sen University agreed with these figures.

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Debates and Scandal Tactics Having Little Effect
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5. (C) The minimal impact of the presidential debates and
Hsieh's attacks on Ma's credibility makes it unlikely there
will be any dramatic change in support among southern voters
for either candidate, local party officials told AIT. DPP
Kaohsiung City chairman Chang Chih-ming expressed
disappointment with the outcome of the first presidential
debate on February 24, which boosted support for Hsieh in the
polls by only 2 points, rather than the 10 points the DPP had
been hoping for. DPP and KMT contacts agreed that Ma's
"green-card issue" was not having a significant effect on
voters' decisions. Nevertheless, both DPP and KMT sources
suggested that Hsieh would make some tactical moves to
"shock" voters in the run-up to the election. Chang told AIT
that the Ma campaign has prepared responses to a range of
possible last minute scenarios that Hsieh might use before
the election.

Comment
--------------


6. (C) The pessimism of some Kaohsiung DPP officials
suggests that Hsieh will be hard pressed to repeat President
Chen's strong performance in the south in 2004. KMT
officials, however, are taking care not to appear
overconfident, hoping that any last minute campaign
"surprises" will not derail Ma's momentum going into the
final stretch of the election. Ma is scheduled to make a
series of campaign appearances in the south in the final two
weeks, while Hsieh is looking to rally his core base and
boost turnout.


7. (U) AIT/K contributed to this cable.
YOUNG