DPP CANDIDATE FRANK HSIEH ON PRESIDENTIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000281

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/28/2023
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: DPP CANDIDATE FRANK HSIEH ON PRESIDENTIAL
CAMPAIGN, UN REFERENDUM, AND CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS


Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: DPP candidate Frank Hsieh told the Director
on February 28 that the presidential race is much closer than
polls suggest and he predicted the margin of victory will be
within two percentage points. Hsieh plans to begin promoting
the DPP's UN referendum to boost his campaign, but said he
will make clear that the referendum does not change the
status quo or represent a move to de jure independence.
Hsieh, who blamed the KMT for negative campaigning and
election tricks, argued that the green card issue raises
questions about KMT candidate Ma Ying-jeou's character and
integrity. Political violence against candidates is unlikely
in Taiwan's peaceful society, he observed, but incidents
cannot be ruled out because of the penchant of candidates to
plunge into crowds. Hsieh stressed his concerns about the
KMT's cross-Strait policies, including the proposal for a
cross-Strait common market, and he argued that Ma, if
elected, would move Taiwan closer to China and further from
the U.S. in an effort to create "equidistant" relationships.
End Summary.


2. (C) The Director discussed the election campaign with DPP
candidate Frank Hsieh at his headquarters on February 28.
Hsieh was accompanied by campaign manager Lee Ying-yuan and
international affairs director Bikhim Hsiao. Hsieh noted
that later in the day he would be participating in a march
and rally commemorating the tragic 1947 "228" incident,
adding that he expected about 30,000 participants in the
event. The Director noted that the first presidential
election debate on February 24 had been rather low-key and
the election atmosphere was calmer this year than in 2000 and

2004. Hsieh, who agreed that the campaign was not as fierce
as previous ones, explained that he had a mild temperament
and that Taiwan's democracy is maturing.


3. (C) The Director asked Hsieh about his strategy for the
final three weeks of the campaign. Hsieh joked that he could
not lay out his entire "secret" strategy and there were some
future plans he could not reveal at this point. He observed
that he was in a race against time, trying to overtake KMT
candidate Ma Ying-jeou before the election on March 22.
Whenever he was beginning to catch Ma, however, the Ma camp
would place negative ads on television that influenced public
opinion and pushed his poll numbers down again. Hsieh said
he had strongly criticized the KMT's negative ads during the
debate, because the Ma camp was even airing such ads in the
television advertising breaks during the debate itself.

UN Referenda
--------------


4. (C) Hsieh told the Director that he will soon begin
pushing the UN referendum to boost his campaign, but he would
make clear that the referendum does not change the
cross-Strait status quo and is not a move to establish de
jure independence. In addition to the DPP's UN referendum,
Hsieh said, he is also urging voters to support the KMT
referendum for entering the UN as the ROC. Hsieh did not
know whether the KMT would boycott the referendum, adding
that he would oppose a KMT boycott.

Ma's Green Card
--------------


5. (C) Hsieh claimed that Ma Ying-jeou has repeatedly been
dishonest about his green card. A major U.S. law firm
confirmed to the DPP the information on Ma's green card about
a half year ago, he said, adding that he had been informed
recently that the USG has removed the archive on Ma's green
card from the INS file. The main question raised by the
green card issue concerns Ma's integrity. Although 42
percent of the people believe Ma has lied about his green
card, the DPP lacks proof and Ma hopes to get past the issue.
Hsieh asserted that it was the Ma camp that had first
launched negative attacks against family members by making
allegations against his wife and later on against one of her
relatives. It was only after the attacks on Hsieh's wife

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that the Hsieh camp raised questions about Ma's sisters.

Hsieh Predicts a Close Election
--------------


6. (C) The green card controversy has reduced support for Ma
but had little effect on his own poll numbers, Hsieh said.
Media and DPP polls show him trailing Ma by 10-20 points,
Hsieh acknowledged. However, Hsieh questioned the
reliability of such polling since he had won 41 percent of
the votes in the 2006 Taipei mayoral election after
pre-election polling had shown his support at just 17
percent. If the presidential election were held now, Hsieh
believed the margin of victory would be within two percentage
points.


7. (C) The voter turnout rate in the presidential election
will be 78 percent, 20 points higher than for the Legislative
Yuan (LY) elections, Hsieh predicted. While the KMT
mobilized its supporters during the LY elections, many DPP
supporters did not vote. Therefore, a majority of the added
voters in the presidential election will be DPP supporters,
Hsieh suggested. The DPP can count on pan-Green supporters
to provide 46 percent of the overall votes in the
presidential election. That leaves a deficit of 4 percentage
points, which Hsieh said, he will have to gain from the
middle (swing) voters to win the presidential election. The
difference between the two candidates on the final day before
the March 22 election will be within two percentage points,
Hsieh predicted.


8. (C) Overall, Hsieh said, he expects to do slightly better
in the north, slightly worse in the south, and about the same
in central Taiwan as Chen Shui-bian did in 2004. In Taipei
City, the people have feelings for Ma, who was their mayor
for eight years. However, in Taipei County (where VP
candidate Su Tseng-chang served as magistrate),the DPP
should do better than in 2004. Although the DPP is stronger
in southern Taiwan, the KMT strategy is to use its money
lavishly, and the DPP will not be able to do as well in the
south as it did in 2004. While there have been some shifts
in opposite directions in different areas of central Taiwan,
the KMT and DPP remain closely matched overall and the
situation is similar to 2004.


9. (C) Party unity is not a problem now, Hsieh said, because
the DPP has to be unified to survive. President Chen has
been cooperating well with Hsieh following the DPP's defeat
in the LY elections. However, if the DPP loses the
presidential election, it is likely to gradually split over
time, dividing into several small parties, Hsieh suggested.
If Ma is elected president, the prospects for development of
the DPP and Taiwan democracy will become difficult. While
the situation might seem good for a year, Ma cannot change
the nature of the KMT, which maintains control of the media,
intelligence services, and local factions and does not want
to see the development of a two-party democracy.


10. (C) Hsieh noted that his campaign strategy is to stay
close to Ma on the issue of cross-Strait charter flights but
to strongly oppose the KMT's proposal for a cross-Strait
common market. Ma's statement that he would not allow the
import of cheap Chinese labor and products is just for
election purposes, Hsieh claimed, adding that he believed the
KMT would in fact allow the import of PRC labor because of
its lower cost.


11. (C) If elected president, Hsieh said, he would consult
with the KMT on appointment of a premier, who could come from
the KMT. In that way, the government would run effectively,
and the KMT would control domestic economic policy. However,
Hsieh added, he would retain control of defense, security,
cross-Strait and U.S.-Taiwan relations, which would enable
him to block the KMT's proposal for a cross-Strait common
market. Having a KMT president would be very dangerous,
Hsieh argued, because the KMT could even pursue unification
through constitutional change, given its overwhelming
majority in the LY.


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Election Tricks
--------------


12. (C) Hsieh maintained that it is the KMT, not the DPP,
that resorts to election tricks. For example, the KMT has
used legislator Wu Yu-sheng to establish a "phony
association" to launch negative campaign ads against Hsieh's
record in Kaohsiung. According to Hsieh, the current level
of security protection for the presidential candidates is
enough to stop a deranged attacker but not a determined
assassin, since the candidates regularly plunge into the
crowds. Taiwan is a peaceful society, and the DPP is
incapable of violence. In addition, Hsieh explained, the DPP
could not possibly undertake a security-related conspiracy,
because news of such a conspiracy would quickly leak as
Taiwan's intelligence system continues to have deep links to
the KMT.

U.S.-Taiwan and Cross-Strait Relations
--------------


13. (C) Taiwan's policy is to emphasize close relations with
the U.S. and Japan, Hsieh noted. Despite some recent
difficulties, Taiwan and the U.S. have shared interests in
democratic values, security cooperation and other areas.
This is especially important while China continues to
pressure Taiwan. However, Ma Ying-jeou's policy is that
Taiwan should maintain equidistant relations with China and
the U.S., Hsieh claimed. In particular, Ma's "no war"
cross-Strait policy will mean trouble for future U.S. arms
sales to Taiwan, if Ma is elected. The PRC policy toward
DPP-governed Taiwan is to "oppose independence" rather than
"promote unification." If Ma comes to power, however,
Beijing will shift focus to promoting unification, Hsieh
predicted.


14. (C) Hsieh does not expect China to attack Taiwan because
Beijing is confident it can bring Taiwan into the fold
without using force. Cross-Strait connections are becoming
increasingly close, as KMT leaders and legislators travel
regularly to China. Developing close relations with China
comes especially naturally to the privileged mainlander elite
around Ma in the KMT, including, for example, Ma's sisters.
Hsieh voiced concern that the Taiwan public, under the
influence of the KMT, might move quickly in a new direction,
without realizing the risks involved in Taiwan's relations
with China. Hsieh stressed that the DPP takes a cautious
approach toward China. That way, if China poses challenges,
then Taiwan can move closer to the U.S. and Japan.

Comment
--------------


15. (C) Hsieh was relaxed in this meeting, seeming to relish
rather than worry about the uphill battle he is fighting
against Ma. He is doubtless pleased that President Chen has
finally moved to the sidelines, letting him run his own show,
and he will also hope that the sense of crisis within the DPP
and the Green base will energize his campaign. Although
Hsieh understands that winning support from swing voters is
key to his prospects, this may prove difficult, given Ma's
campaign promises of speedy opening to China and high
economic growth rates.
YOUNG