TAIWAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION COUNTDOWN: THREE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000280 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/28/2018 TAGS: PGOV TW SUBJECT: TAIWAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION COUNTDOWN: THREE WEEKS TO GO REF: TAIPEI 262 Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reasons: 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary: As the presidential campaign enters its final three weeks, media public opinion polls, which are not always reliable, show Ma as continuing to enjoy a 20-28 percentage point lead over Hsieh. Local KMT and DPP party officials expect Hsieh to win southern Taiwan, but the DPP is concerned the margin of victory may not be enough to offset Ma's advantage in the north. The two presidential candidates held the first of two media-sponsored debates on Friday, February 24. Both also made efforts this week to appeal to young voters, who constitute 10 percent of the population. The Central Election Commission (CEC) sponsored the first debate by lower level officials in the two camps on the two UN referenda on February 27, which drew little attention; another four debates of this nature are scheduled for March 1, 2, 5, and 8. The DPP held a large-scale march and rally in Taipei on February 28 to commemorate the 1947 "2-28" incident that triggered a massive repression by the KMT of Taiwanese suspected of disloyalty to the regime. The KMT held a series of more somber commemorative activities, including an evening concert in Taipei. Candidates Ma and Hsieh will square off next on the evening of February 29 in the first of three policy presentation events organized by the CEC. End Summary. Ma Continues to Lead Hsieh in Media Polls -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Public opinion polls conducted by the media early this week suggested Ma outperformed Hsieh in the first televised presidential debate organized by media outlets on February 24. The debate results, however, do not appear to have significantly affected support for either candidate (reftel). The candidates will have another chance to square off on February 29 in the first of three presidential policy presentation events organized by the Central Election Commission. The CEC debate format gives candidates the opportunity to state policy views by turn, each candidate having two 15 minute segments to make their presentations; no questions generated by voters or media organizations will be put to the candidates. ¶3. (SBU) Media polls after the February 24 debate show Ma as enjoying a 20-28 percentage point lead over Hsieh. According to separate polls by the pro-Blue United Daily News (UDN) and TVBS television, Ma's lead has narrowed. A UDN poll conducted on February 24 puts support for Ma at 49 percent compared to 21 percent for Hsieh, with 28 percent undecided. Ma's 28 point lead is down 10 points from the previous UDN poll on February 14. The UDN explained the shift as a combination of Hsieh consolidating the Green base and Ma losing support among some independents. The TVBS poll on February 25 measures support for Ma at 49 percent and Hsieh at 29 percent, with undecided voters 22 percent. The 20 percent gap represents a narrowing of 2 points from February ¶22. In contrast to UDN and TVBS, the pro-Blue China Times' (CT) poll of February 24 showed support for both candidates rising slightly after the debate, with Ma at 49 percent and Hsieh at 23 percent. According to the CT poll, Ma increased his lead by 1 point compared to February 21. (Note: Both the TVBS and CT shifts in Ma's lead are within the statistical margin of error.) Views from Southern Taiwan -------------- ¶4. (C) DPP and KMT party officials in southern Taiwan told AIT they expect Hsieh to win the south, but suggested he would need to do so by a margin of at least one million votes in order to win the overall presidential election. DPP Kaohsiung City Councilor Chou Ling-wen predicted Hsieh will win Kaohsiung City by only 20,000 votes, short of the 100,000 margin needed to offset his expected losses in the north. DPP Kaohsiung City chairman Chang Chih-ming, however, projected Hsieh could win Kaohsiung by up to 150,000 votes if TAIPEI 00000280 002 OF 003 a groundswell of support materializes in the final weeks of the election. Chang said the DPP was disappointed with the outcome of the first presidential debate, noting the party expected a 10 percentage point boost for Hsieh but his polling numbers only rose by 2 percentage points. ¶5. (C) DPP and KMT officials told AIT the economy and education were the top issues on voter's minds in this election. KMT City Chairman Hsu Fu-ming claimed that Hsieh's record as Kaohsiung mayor was "cosmetic," citing high unemployment, non-potable drinking water, and an uncompleted subway system as problems dragging down the local economy and quality of life. Given the KMT's strong performance in recent elections in Kaohsiung, the KMT did not expect Hsieh to win in the city by more than 30,000 votes, Hsu said. He added that Ma's image and support in the south has been boosted by his repeated appearances and long stays, which Ma campaign spokesman Lo Shih-hsiung said have helped Ma understand local issues and develop personal connections with southern voters. In a best-case performance, Lo suggested, Ma could win Kaohsiung City by 3-5 percentage points, the same level that the KMT won by in the January legislative elections. The Youth Vote: Rocking or Being Rocked? -------------- ¶6. (C) Hsieh and Ma participated in a student-organized question and answer session in Hsinchu County on February 22 to appeal to youth and college-aged voters (ages 20-29). The candidates appeared for approximately 40 minutes each, responding to questions previously submitted by students, as well as taking questions directly from the audience. Hsieh went first, followed by a free rock concert that ended with almost a quarter of the 1,500-strong audience departing before Ma took his turn. Youth and college-aged voters number approximately 2 million, or 10 percent of Taiwan's total population. In past elections the youth have favored the DPP, a number of local political experts have told AIT. This time, however, the experts believe Ma will draw a majority of the youth vote because of his youthful, reformist image and student concerns about their future employment opportunities. ¶7. (C) Several students at the event told AIT that their generation remains largely indifferent to politics. Only one of five students who spoke with AIT said they would definitely vote in the election, which is consistent with the 15-20 percent turnout for youth in recent elections. The students told AIT a majority of their friends and classmates remain undecided, explaining that while they are concerned about the economy and Taiwan's future, they have been turned off by negative campaigning and the media's focus on trivial controversies involving the candidates. One student lamented that Taiwan's politicians are not inspiring, noting that many Taiwanese youth hoped their political system could be like the U.S. in producing more charismatic candidates such as Barak Obama. First UN Referenda Debates Lackluster -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The CEC sponsored the first of five UN referenda debates on February 27. Since no opponents registered to argue against the DPP or KMT referenda, sponsors of each referenda were able to use the opportunity to present their arguments in support of the initiatives. Each presentation was given 40 minutes of television coverage and was separated by an hour. The four remaining pairs of presentations or debates will occur on March 1, 2, 5, and 8. ¶9. (SBU) In this first pair of presentations, former DPP Chairman Yu Shyi-kun and KMT International Affairs Director Ho Szu-yin presented the cases for their respective party's referendum. Speaking in Taiwanese, Yu Shyi-kun emphasized the benefits of joining the UN under the name "Taiwan," reiterating the points that the "ROC" status internationally is unclear and often confused with the PRC and that over 70 percent of people on the island identify with the name TAIPEI 00000280 003 OF 003 "Taiwan." Ho spent the first six minutes of his presentation cataloging statements by senior U.S. officials against the UN referendum. He reiterated the importance of U.S. support for Taiwan's security several times, arguing that the DPP's UN referendum undermines the island's security. Although participating in international organizations is important, Taiwan should be flexible on nomenclature and seek participation or membership in a way that is not controversial, a tactic that has proven successful in joining APEC and WTO. Ho also reiterated KMT objections to holding referenda in conjunction with presidential elections. February 28 Rally: Boosting Election Enthusiasm? -------------- --- ¶10. (C) The DPP held a march and large-scale rally in Taipei on February 28 on the anniversary of the 1947 "2-28" incident. AIT observers estimate approximately 5,000 people joined in the march led by a group of DPP youth who had been walking from southern Taiwan to the north in a campaign activity titled, "Reversing the Tide: Protecting Taiwan." The marchers who joined the youth were mainly older people, reflecting the DPP's traditional base of support; they appeared somewhat less enthusiastic and organized than participants in some previous events we have observed. The marchers entered Taipei in the morning and were greeted by President Chen and Vice President Lu in an impromptu event in front of Liberty Square (the former Chiang Kai-shek Memorial) before continuing on to the Chungshan Soccer Stadium, where the DPP held a perhaps 40,000-strong event, which included a concert to commemorate the 1947 "2-28" incident and a major campaign rally. In contrast to the march, the excitement at the stadium was palpable, an indication that the Green base is standing by the DPP. President Chen did not attend this event, evidently at Hsieh's request. Hsieh delivered an impassioned campaign speech in which he said, "If we lose, Taiwanese democracy will become a candle in the wind and be extinguished at any moment. We cannot win if the people of Taiwan do not wake up and stand up to protect the dream of our forefathers." ¶11. (SBU) The KMT hosted a series of commemorative events, generally more solemn, and did not combine them with political rallies. As he has in years past, Ma attended a memorial service in Chiayi City, where some of the harshest suppression occurred over 60 years ago, urging "love and reconciliation" and emphasizing that the roots of the insurrection and crackdown were a corrupt and incompetent government. Ma then attended an evening concert in Taipei, where, as in the past, he again acknowledged the KMT's political responsibility and apologized for the violent incident, expressing hope that future generations would have a profound understanding of the incident, tempered by love and tolerance, but would remember the past so as not to repeat it. YOUNG