TAIWAN ELECTION COUNTDOWN: FOUR WEEKS TO GO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000247

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/20/2023
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: TAIWAN ELECTION COUNTDOWN: FOUR WEEKS TO GO

REF: TAIPEI 00219

Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reason 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: With four weeks to go before the March 22
presidential election, KMT candidate Ma Ying-jeou continues
to lead the DPP's Frank Hsieh, though internal polling by the
DPP and KMT indicates a significantly narrower gap than some
media polls would suggest. While the latter show Ma leading
by 20-30 percent, DPP and KMT internal polls from mid
February show Ma's lead has shrunk to around 8-10 percentage
points. Negative attacks continue to dominate election
headlines and appear to have made a dent in support for Ma
among independent voters. Media coverage early in the week
focused on another round of DPP attacks on Ma's green card
status and renewed KMT allegations that Hsieh had betrayed
the democratic movement by serving as an informant for
Taiwan's intelligence services in the 1980s. The
presidential candidates will participate in the first, and
perhaps most lively, of a series of five presidential debates
starting on February 24. The DPP attempt this week to work
out a compromise with the KMT on the UN referenda has been
rebuffed, making it likely the two UN referenda as currently
worded will remain on the March 22 ballot. President Chen
continues to hint at the possibility of a "defensive
referendum," but Hsieh opposes this option and Chen has
pledged to take his lead from Hsieh. Next week the DPP will
hold a 100,000 person rally on February 28 to commemorate the
tragic 1947 "2-28" incident and it is planning its largest
campaign rally for March 16, when it expects to mobilize one
million supporters in different locations. End Summary.

Ma Lead Narrowing
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2. (C) With four weeks to go before the March 22
presidential election, KMT candidate Ma Ying-jeou continues
to lead the DPP's Frank Hsieh, though internal polling by the
DPP and KMT indicates a significantly narrower gap than some
media polls show. DPP internal polling from mid-February
shows that Ma's lead has shrunk to around 8-10 percentage
points. DPP Policy Committee Chairman Shen Fa-hui told AIT
on February 22 that the party's internal polls show support
for Ma at slightly over 40 percent and Hsieh at around 30
percent. Although the DPP's negative attacks on Ma are
unlikely to be decisive in the election, Shen said, they had
caused a 10-point drop in support for Ma, and had been
particularly effective in reducing support for Ma from
independent voters. However, support for Hsieh has not gone
up significantly. Shen said the campaign's goal is to close
the gap to within 5 percentage points in the coming weeks.


3. (C) KMT internal polls also show Ma's lead has shrunk to
10 percentage points, down 3-5 points from previous internal
polls. KMT Department of Overseas Affairs Director Ho
Szu-yin explained to AIT that the narrowing gap was "normal"
and to be expected as election day approaches. The number of
respondents who said that they were undecided, however,
remains high. Ho said that the KMT is trying to avoid
polling biases and errors by using three different polling
organizations.

Local KMT Estimates
--------------


4. (C) Local KMT officials in two large jurisdictions in
northern and central Taiwan told AIT they expect Ma to do
even better in their districts than KMT candidates did in the
January 12 Legislative Yuan (LY) elections. Taoyuan County
KMT Chairman Fu Chung-hsiung expects Ma to win the county by
as many as 200,000 votes, while Taichung City KMT Secretary
General Hung Jung-chang projects Ma will win the districts of
central Taiwan (Taichung city and county, and Changhua, and
Nantou counties)--which were almost evenly split between the
KMT and DPP in 2004--by as much as 300,000 votes. Hung
expects Ma to take the overall election by at least a million
votes.

Place Your Bets: Gambling Odds Favor Ma
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5. (C) Taiwan's illegal but highly popular gambling
operations have started to give odds and take bets on the
presidential election. According to a recent article in the
United Daily News, Ma is favored to win by 250,000 to 750,000
votes, with the odds varying by geographic region. The
margin of Ma's win as given by bookies in southern Taiwan,
where the population tends to lean DPP, can be as low as
150,000 votes compared to estimates in the north that go as
high as 1 million. Local political observers tell AIT that
gambling odds are closely watched because they are often more
reliable predictors of election outcomes than media-produced
public opinion polls. Since the bookies have a financial
stake in predicting the outcome, some experts explain, they
do a thorough job of canvassing local political operatives
from both camps to assess the overall level of support for a
particular candidate.

An Election Mired in Mud?
--------------


6. (C) Negative attacks continue to dominate election
headlines. Media coverage early in the week focused on
another round of DPP attacks on Ma's green card status and
renewed KMT allegations that Hsieh had betrayed the
democratic movement by serving as an informant for Taiwan's
intelligence services in the 1980s. Shen Fa-hui told AIT the
DPP will keep attacking on the green card issue unless Ma can
successfully neutralize the issue. The DPP will also raise
other issues, such as the privatization of Fubon Bank under
Ma's tenure as Taipei mayor and special treatment given to
Ma's daughter when she applied for college entrance, that are
aimed at tarnishing Ma's image for cleanliness and reputation
for fairness.


7. (C) Hsieh campaign manager Lee Ying-yuan told AIT on
February 20 that Hsieh has so far been successful in setting
the agenda by using such negative attacks, though more
positive messages and discussions of policy will also be
raised. Lee noted as an example Hsieh's pledge on February
19 that if elected he would seek a meeting with President Hu
Jintao as an effort to set a positive tone for cross-Strait
relations. Lee underscored, however, that negative
campaigning works, especially for the candidate who is
trailing.


8. (C) Soochow University Professor Lo Chih-cheng told AIT
on February 19 he expects the presidential election to retain
its negative focus throughout because it helps the DPP
control the tempo and keep Ma on the defensive. Negative
campaigning, moreover, provides more free media coverage that
outright discussions of policy issues and hence helps
neutralize the KMT's ability to outspend the DPP in paid
advertising. A recent poll commissioned by the pro-DPP
Taiwan Thinktank, with which Lo is affiliated, suggests the
negative focus could be working. In that poll a majority of
respondents said Ma and his wife should make public
information regarding their green cards and nearly 42 percent
faulted Ma's crisis management capability. The acute anxiety
demonstrated with AIT by close advisors to Ma is another
suggestion the KMT candidate is uneasy about this U.S. green
card/citizenship issue.

Candidates Prepare for Weekend Debate
--------------


9. (C) The presidential candidates will participate in the
first, and perhaps most lively, of a series of five
presidential debates starting on February 24. The first
debate is organized by five local media outlets and offers
more opportunities for direct exchanges between the
candidates. Lee, however, downplayed the potential impact of
the first debate, pointing out the candidates would have time
to prepare since they would be provided with most of the
questions in advance. Lee added that Ma is an eloquent
speaker and expected to hold his own in the debate. Shen
told AIT that a strong performance by Hsieh would do little
to boost him in the polls since the KMT and pro-Blue media
have already generated the expectation that Hsieh would
outperform Ma in the debate. Shen underscored that with the

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more flexible format of the first debate he expected a lot of
"fireworks," though Hsieh would focus on attacking Ma on
issues of policy, not personal character.


10. (SBU) Professor Lo said he expects Hsieh to raise new
negative charges against Ma during the upcoming debate to try
to throw Ma off balance. The Taiwan Thinktank poll showed
that a majority of voters already have their minds made up
before the debates begin, with more than 63 percent of the
respondents saying the debate outcome would not change their
preference, compared to 28 percent who said they could be
swayed by a candidate's performance. The survey also found
that over 43 percent of those polled expected Hsieh to do
better than Ma compared to 17 percent who though Ma would do
better.

Upcoming Campaign Events
--------------


11. (C) A group mostly comprised of DPP youth, but also
including former party chairman Yu Shyi-kun, has been walking
from south to north in a campaign activity titled, "Reversing
the Tide: Protecting Taiwan." As reported reftel, this group
will be joined by senior DPP leaders and officials in
suburban Taipei on February 28 for the final stage of the
walk, which will end at the Chungshan Soccer Stadium, where
the DPP will hold a 100,000-strong rally to commemorate the
tragic 1947 "2-28" incident. The rally this year will
feature the theme "praying for Taiwan" and will emphasize the
unity of all people in Taiwan, Lee Ying-yuan, who is also DPP
Secretary General, told AIT on February 20.

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12. (C) The DPP's largest scale rally for the election
campaign will take place on March 16, Lee said. The DPP
plans to mobilize one million supporters for this event,
which will feature supporters walking for 100 minutes at
various points along the length of a major north-south
highway, under the rubric "Democratic Taiwan, Take Action
100." The "100" refers to voting for Ticket Number One
(Hsieh and Su),while circling yes for both the DPP and KMT
UN referenda.

UN Referenda, Defensive or Otherwise
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13. (C) The KMT decided on February 21 to remove the UN
referenda issue from the legislative agenda, which almost
completely eliminates the possibility that a compromise
LY-backed UN referendum will emerge. According to the
Referendum Law, today (Friday) was the last day for the
legislature to table a referendum that could be held in
conjunction with the presidential election. Even though
President Chen had threatened earlier in the week that he
might resort to a defensive referendum if the KMT and DPP
failed to reach a compromise, Presidential Office Deputy
Secretary General Chen Chi-mai on February 21 told the press

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President Chen would not initiate a defensive referendum with
compromise language without the KMT's consent. Shen Fa-hui,
moreover, told AIT that Hsieh remains opposed to a
president-initiated defensive referendum and that Chen would
not go against the DPP presidential candidate's wishes.


14. (C) Ho Szu-yin told AIT that the KMT would probably hold
off deciding whether to urge voters to boycott the two UN
referenda until the day or two before the election. That
would reduce the amount of time for Hsieh to react and build
momentum for a "Love Taiwan" campaign if the KMT decides to
boycott the referenda, Ho explained. If President Chen
initiates a defensive referendum, Ho said, the KMT would have
greater rationale, plus a face-saving reason, to boycott the
referenda by arguing that the defensive referendum was just a
political ploy to gain electoral votes. KMT Chairman Wu
Poh-hsiung yesterday said that the KMT might present a
resolution in the LY at a proper time to demonstrate the wish
of the Taiwan people to participate in international
organizations, but also said he would not meet with President
Chen for a second time to discuss a compromise referendum.
YOUNG