KMT VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE VINCENT SIEW ON REFERENDUM,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000246 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/22/2023 TAGS: PGOV TW SUBJECT: KMT VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE VINCENT SIEW ON REFERENDUM, GREEN CARD ISSUE REF: TAIPEI 0242 Classified By: Director Stephen M. Young, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D). ¶1. (C) Summary: In a February 21 meeting with the Director, KMT vice presidential candidate Vincent Siew lamented the ongoing "green card" scandal bedeviling KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou, and delivered to the Director a personal letter from Ma asking the U.S. to confirm that Ma is "neither a U.S. citizen nor a permanent resident of the U.S." The KMT had been willing to explore a compromise "third UN referendum," said Siew, but subsequently this idea died following its removal from the February 22 legislative agenda. Siew assured the Director the KMT stands with the U.S. in opposition to any "defensive referendum" from President Chen. The KMT has not decided whether to boycott the two UN referenda, but for the sake of the presidential campaign, said Siew, he would prefer the party didn't call for a boycott. China may not give ground on Taiwan's international living space simply because a KMT president is in office, Siew admitted, but Beijing must give something to the Taiwan people if it hopes to improve cross-Strait relations. The Ma-Siew ticket is widely popular, Siew maintained, and he predicted the KMT will win the March 22 presidential election by a comfortable margin if all continues to go well. End Summary. ¶2. (C) The Director met with KMT vice presidential candidate Vincent Siew (Wan-chang) on February 21. Siew was accompanied by KMT campaign advisor John Feng. Sorry About the Leak -------------- ¶3. (C) Siew began the meeting by again apologizing for the leak of his memorandum from the December 2007 meeting with AIT/W Chairman Burghardt. Siew said he had intended his conversation with Burghardt to be personal and private, and had only dictated the memorandum in order to prepare Ma for his meeting with Burghardt the following day. Siew claimed the DPP had intercepted the memo while it was being faxed by Siew's secretary to Ma's residence. The DPP legislative candidate who leaked the memo hails from Siew's hometown in Chiayi County, Siew explained, and she was seeking to boost her low popularity ratings at his expense before the election, which she subsequently lost. The Director assured Siew that the USG and Burghardt understood the leak had been accidental, highlighted the importance of preserving the confidentiality of our exchanges, and stressed the desire of the USG to avoid being drawn into the Taiwan presidential campaign. Campaign So Far, So Good -------------- ¶4. (C) Siew characterized the KMT presidential campaign as "so far, so good," but both he and Ma were growing tired of Hsieh's "dirty tricks," especially the recent "green card" scandal. Siew also criticized President Chen for involving the Central Election Commission (CEC) in the dispute over Ma's alleged American citizenship. The CEC is Taiwan's electoral regulatory body, he noted, and it must remain independent if it is to fulfill its charge to impartially manage electoral affairs. (Note: The CEC has announced it will request the US government to confirm whether or not any of the four candidates in the presidential contest have U.S. citizenship. The CEC has not yet made its request. End note.) The Director urged the KMT, if it wins the presidential election, to reform the CEC so that it is less vulnerable to political tampering. U.S. Must Weigh In On Green Card -------------- ¶5. (C) The CEC has asked Ma and Siew, and Hsieh and his vice presidential running mate Su Tseng-chang, to give written consent to the CEC's U.S. citizenship inquiry. Siew stated that he and Ma will submit their consent forms to the CEC within two days. The U.S. has good reasons for not wanting to be drawn into this controversy, Siew acknowledged, but by refusing to clear up the matter, he argued, the U.S. would be inadvertently helping the DPP. According to Siew, Hsieh and his proxies have argued that the U.S. government has remained silent because it does not want to reveal information unfavorable to Ma, its preferred candidate. The longer the U.S. waits to dispel these rumors, Siew continued, the longer Hsieh and the DPP can use these spurious allegations to discredit Ma. The Director explained to Siew that Washington would decide how to respond to the CEC's inquiry, and that it is possible the USG might simply say "no comment." Siew protested that "no comment" from the USG would leave the Ma campaign exposed to further DPP calumny. ¶6. (C) During the meeting, KMT advisor John Feng delivered a personal letter from Ma to the Director (separately emailed to EAP/TC),in which Ma requested the U.S. to publicly affirm that he "was neither a U.S. citizen nor a permanent resident of the U.S." In a separate conversation with the Director after Siew departed, Feng urged the U.S. to disclose the information sooner, rather than later. If the U.S. refuses to state definitively that Ma is not a US citizen, claimed Feng, it will be portrayed by the DPP and some of the media as a U.S. endorsement of the Hsieh-Su ticket. On the other hand, if the U.S. waits until the final week of the campaign to put the issue to rest, it would be an enormous embarrassment to Hsieh, and a boon to Ma and the KMT. Now is the time to answer the question, Feng argued, while it is early enough in the campaign that the U.S. can plausibly explain that its response is politically neutral. Little Chance for Compromise Referendum -------------- ¶7. (C) Siew told the Director that KMT LY Speaker Wang Jin-pyng had been "trying very hard" to reach a compromise referendum with President Chen Shui-bian (see reftel). (Note: Siew did not say that he or Ma backed Wang's efforts, or that Wang had consulted the campaign before going forward. End note.) The KMT, including the Ma-Siew campaign, supports the idea of a referendum on UN membership, but does not support combining the UN vote with the presidential election. If the KMT and DPP LY caucuses could reach acceptable language for a third referendum, he added, the KMT would agree to withdraw its existing referendum to make way for the "compromise" referendum. Wang understood this policy, Siew said, and was attempting to pursue it in his dialogue with Pres. Chen. In any event, Siew continued, the "compromise" referendum was removed from the LY agenda the morning of February 21, bringing an end to the process. Therefore, Siew suggested, the two existing referenda will probably be the ones on the ballot come March 22. ¶8. (C) The U.S. respects Taiwan's democratic process, the Director noted, and understands that referenda are sometimes a necessary part of a vibrant democracy. Nonetheless, Washington would view a "defensive referendum" as very unhelpful, and would likely issue a strong and public statement in opposition if the current administration were to pursue a defensive referendum in advance of the upcoming presidential election. The KMT is also staunchly opposed to a defensive referendum, Siew replied. Siew Prefers No Boycott -------------- ¶9. (C) The KMT has not decided whether to call for a boycott of the two referenda, but Siew told the Director his personal belief was that the Ma-Siew campaign "cannot risk it." Hsieh and the DPP would certainly accuse Ma and the KMT of "not loving Taiwan." Hsieh's campaign is already billing Hsieh and Su as the "pro-Taiwan" ticket, and Ma and Siew as "a vote for China." It would make no sense for the KMT to add fuel to this fire by calling for a boycott, Siew concluded. VP Debates: Economic Focus -------------- ¶10. (C) The vice presidential debate is scheduled for March 7, Siew noted, adding that each candidate will only be given 30 minutes to discuss his platform. Siew told the Director he hopes to focus the debate on economic issues, because, he asserted, DPP opponent Su Tseng-chang "can't stand up" to his experience or capability. The Director asked whether Siew was concerned by how the global economic downturn might affect Taiwan's chances of economic recovery. The twelve large-scale public works projects proposed by the Ma campaign are intended to stimulate DOMESTIC demand, Siew replied, and to insulate Taiwan somewhat from adverse developments in the global economy. The KMT has proposed extensive tax cuts for Taiwan industry, noted the Director, asking whether this might put limits on government spending. Siew explained that the proposed tax cuts would only be targeted at industries that need assistance, while the KMT plan is to increase tax revenues through growth. Will Beijing Bend? -------------- ¶11. (C) Siew admitted there is no guarantee that China will be more flexible on Taiwan's "international living space" if the KMT retakes power in May. Siew recalled his many trips to the PRC, and his meetings with President Hu Jintao and Taiwan Affairs Office Director Chen Yunlin. Siew said he hopes his existing relationship with the Beijing leadership will enable the cross-Strait dialogue to begin early in the new administration. Beijing must realize that if it is to improve relations with Taiwan, Siew argued, it will have to give Taiwan's people some of what they want: respect, international space, and economic benefits. Siew Predicts Comfortable Victory Margin -------------- ¶12. (C) Siew predicted that he and Ma will win the presidential election by a significant margin. Siew, who was Lien Chan's running mate in 2000, told the Director that he and Ma have been warmly received everywhere they have gone, "even in the countryside" where the Lien-Siew ticket had been greeted coolly eight years ago. Siew claimed that recent polls, which put Ma's popularity at 58 percent compared to Hsieh's 18 percent, accurately describe the sentiments of Taiwan's voters. Of course a month remains until the election, Siew conceded, but if everything continues to go well, Siew concluded, "it will not be a close race." Comment -------------- ¶13. (C) Clearly the KMT candidates are nervous about DPP efforts to portray Ma's U.S. connections in a negative light. That is why they are pushing for an early and authoritative ruling of Ma's current status (i.e., regarding a possible green card or citizenship) in order to clear the air. AIT is working with the Department to determine how best to respond within the constraints of U.S. law and practice. YOUNG