KMT LY SPEAKER WANG JIN-PYNG ON OPTIONS TO REPLACE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000242

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/22/2023
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: KMT LY SPEAKER WANG JIN-PYNG ON OPTIONS TO REPLACE
EXISTING UN REFERENDA


Classified By: Director Stephen M. Young, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D).


1. (C) During a February 26 meeting with the Director, KMT LY
Speaker Wang Jin-pyng confirmed that he had met with
President Chen on February 18 to discuss a "third referendum"
to replace the DPP- and KMT-sponsored UN referenda currently
scheduled to coincide with the March 22 presidential
election. Wang said the Legislative Yuan could pass a
resolution to replace the two referenda on February 22, the
first day of its new session, but this is highly unlikely.
If the KMT and DPP are unable to reach a compromise,
President Chen could go forward with a "defensive
referendum." The Central Election Commission is Chen's
political tool, noted Wang, and it will facilitate whatever
Chen decides to do. Wang was unable to say whether KMT
presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou or his DPP rival Frank
Hsieh were in support of a "compromise" referendum, creating
the impression that Wang and President Chen were operating
largely independent of the presidential campaigns. If the
presidential election were tomorrow, said Wang, Ma would most
certainly win, but with 30 days remaining in the campaign, it
is too soon to tell. Ma must do better at deflecting Hsieh
campaign smear tactics like the "green card" scandal if he is
to win, Wang noted. The presidential election will draw many
more voters to the polls, Wang predicted, and if polling
rates hold steady, Ma would win the presidential contest by
5-6 points.


2. (C) The Director met with KMT LY Speaker Wang Jin-pyng on
February 20. Deputy Director Wang and POL's Brad Parker also
attended the meeting.

Pres. Chen and Wang Discuss Third Referendum
--------------


3. (C) The Director noted recent press reports which
indicated Wang had met recently with President Chen to
discuss a "third UN referendum" to replace the two referenda
scheduled for the March 22 ballot. Wang confirmed that he
had met with Chen at Chen's request on Monday, February 18.
During that meeting, Wang continued, President Chen had
proposed the following language as the starting point for a
new referendum: "Do you agree that 'We are a sovereign
country, not a province of the People's Republic of China,
and our 23 million people have the right to participate in
the United Nations.'"


4. (C) There are two courses of action which might yield a
third referendum, explained Wang. The first would be a
"compromise," and would require the KMT-controlled LY to pass
a bill endorsing the text of a third referendum to replace
the existing two. The LY formally opens its new session this
Friday, February 22. Under the Referendum Act, legislative
referenda must be formally proposed no later than one month
before the scheduled voting date. If a new, LY-sponsored
referendum is to be held alongside the March 22 presidential
election, Wang stressed, the LY will have one only day to
pass the necessary legislation. (Note: In a separate meeting
with the Director on February 21, KMT vice presidential
candidate Vincent Siew said this idea had been taken off the
LY calendar for February 22, and was essentially dead. The
Siew meeting will be reported fully septel. End note.)


5. (C) The second option is a "defensive referendum" which
President Chen could propose unilaterally, Wang continued.
What time limitations or other restrictions does the
Referendum Law place on the president's ability to propose a
defensive referendum, asked the Director. Chen would have to
propose the defensive referendum at least a week before the
presidential election, Wang replied, to give the Central
Election Commission (CEC) sufficient time to print the
ballots. Aside from that practical concern, Wang continued,
Chen need not be concerned by procedural limitations because
the CEC is dominated by DPP loyalists who will "rubber stamp"
whatever Chen chooses to do.

Why Seek a Third Referendum Now?
--------------


6. (C) Wang told the Director that President Chen did not

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explicitly state why he was seeking a compromise referendum,
but Wang speculated that Chen is trying to avoid the
embarrassment he and his party would suffer if the "UN for
Taiwan" referendum were to fail. Chen may also be worried
that failure of the DPP UN referendum would adversely affect
Taiwan's future efforts to join the UN and other
international organizations, added Wang. Wang stated he did
not know whether DPP presidential candidate Frank Hsieh
(Chang-ting) supported the push for a third referendum, but
suggested, without elaborating, that it would "make sense"
for Hsieh to do so.


7. (C) In discussing the KMT's motivation to reach a
compromise on the referendum issue, Wang was equally vague,
simply stating the KMT objective was to "get rid of the
referenda." Wang told the Director KMT Chairman Wu Po-hsiung
met with President Chen on January 24 to explore the
possibility of a compromise referendum. According to Wang,
Wu had two conditions for KMT cooperation: postponing the
referendum vote until after the presidential election, and
greater KMT representation on the CEC. Chen flatly refused
both demands. Then, said Wang, the story leaked to the
press, derailing the compromise dialogue until Chen
approached Wang for the first time on February 13.

Ma May Not Be On Board
--------------


8. (C) Wang said he did not know whether KMT Chairman Wu had
discussed the prospect of a compromise referendum with Ma, or
whether the KMT leadership would clear any compromise
referendum with him before ratifying it. The KMT UN
referendum is something the party created, not Ma, Wang
argued, and although it is likely that the party would
consult Ma before changing course, it would not be necessary.
Wang could not confirm Ma's support for a third referendum,
or even describe why it would be in the KMT candidate's
interest to go along with this scheme. Wang admitted that
the DPP is unlikely to agree to de-couple the UN referendum
ballot from the March 22 presidential ballot, essentially
killing any chance at cross-party cooperation on the matter.

Ma Strong, But Victory Not Guaranteed
--------------


9. (C) If the presidential election were tomorrow, Wang told
the Director, Ma would almost certainly win, but with a month
left in the race, it is still too early to tell. Ma must do
better at deflecting accusations like the "green card"
scandal, said Wang, implying that Hsieh and the DPP would
bring more of the same in the weeks remaining until the March
22 election. The public continues to be focused on the
economy, said Wang. Voters tend to believe the KMT is more
capable than the DPP of honoring its promises to improve
cross-Strait economic ties. The moderates and deep-Blues
within the KMT both support Ma's plan to expand Taiwan's
economic relationship with China, Wang explained, but many
voters suspect the deep-Greens inside the DPP would hamstring
Hsieh's efforts to move forward.


10. (C) There will be no "pendulum" or "bandwagon" effect,
Wang predicted, but the increased voter turnout expected for
the presidential election could be a decisive factor.
Fifty-eight percent of Taiwan's eligible voters participated
in the January 12 legislative elections, explained Wang. The
KMT won 59 percent of the LY vote (equal to 34 percent of
eligible voters),to the DPP's 41 percent (24 percent of
eligible voters). Ten percent of Taiwan's eligible voters
were able to swing the LY elections sharply in the KMT's
favor, noted Wang. The turnout for the presidential election
is expected to be near 80 percent, he continued, twenty
points higher than the LY election. Taiwan businesspeople
living in China, "swing voters," and young people will make
up the bulk of that extra 20 percent, said Wang, groups with
whom the KMT holds a meaningful advantage. If current
polling figures hold, predicted Wang, the KMT would win the
presidential election by a margin of 5-6 points.

Comment
--------------

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11. (C) As LY Speaker, Wang Jin-pyng plays a fairly prominent
role in this island's politics. That said, he is something
of an "entrepreneur" in recent attempts to solve the
referendum impasse, as is President Chen. The key players
now, one month before the election, are the two candidates.
Their views are likely to be critical to any late hour change
in the referenda. To the extent they currently seem opposed
to Wang and Chen's initiatives, we remain doubtful anything
will emerge from this latest jockeying.
YOUNG