KMT CHAIRMAN WU POH-HSIUNG ON THE UPCOMING KMT-CCP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 001759 SIPDIS STATE PASS USTR FOR STRATFORD AND ALTBACH E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON EFIN ETRD CH TW SUBJECT: KMT CHAIRMAN WU POH-HSIUNG ON THE UPCOMING KMT-CCP FORUM AND DOMESTIC POLITICS Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reasons: 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Chairman Wu Poh-hsiung told the Director on December 18 that he had agreed to the request of both Honorary Chairman Lien Chan and President Ma Ying-jeou to lead the KMT delegation to the KMT-CCP forum in Shanghai on December 20-21. Topics at the forum will include cross-Strait cooperation on finance, services, and investment, and a general framework arrangement for cross-Strait economic relations. For the first time, the KMT delegation will include five economic officials from the government serving in a "private" capacity as specialists. They will be authorized to have discussions, but not to conduct negotiations, with mainland counterparts. Wu emphasized his close coordination with Ma on cross-Strait relations, adding that his views and Ma's are "entirely identical." Wu stressed the importance of progress on WHA observership next May, predicting a very negative public reaction here if Beijing continues to oppose Taiwan. Wu urged the U.S, to continue pushing China on this issue. ¶2. (C) KMT Deputy Secretary General Steve Chan, who accompanied Wu, expressed hope Taiwan and the U.S. could hold discussions on the WHO issue after the Chinese New Year holiday (which falls at the end of January). Wu did not rule out the possibility that he would remain as party chairman after his current term expires next August. He stressed the importance of Taipei County in the December 2009 local elections, and acknowledged that current KMT Magistrate Chou Hsi-wei would be a weak candidate, especially if the DPP nominates someone very prominent such as DPP Chair Tsai Ing-wen or former Premier Su Tseng-chang. End Summary. KMT-CCP Forum -------------- ¶3. (C) KMT Chairman Wu Poh-hsiung confirmed to the Director in a December 18 meeting that he would be leading the party's delegation to the December 20-21 KMT-CCP forum in Shanghai. Wu noted he originally had not planned to attend but Honorary Chairman Lien Chan wanted him to go, and President Ma Ying-jeou had also pushed Wu to attend the forum. Lien was very polite, Wu said, but Wu understood and would continue to emphasize the important role Lien played in cross-Strait relations. The forum had been delayed for one week because the original dates (Dec. 13-14) conflicted with Wu's trip to Japan. ¶4. (C) Wu said the delegation would include more than 140 people, including Lien, two KMT vice chairmen (John Chiang and Tseng Yung-chuan),many business people and scholars. For the first time, officials would be participating in the forum, although in a "private" capacity as specialists. The officials would include persons responsible for economic, banking, tourism, and civil aviation issues. (Note: In a separate meeting, Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) Vice Chairman Fu Don-cheng told AIT that MAC had approved the participation of five officials, who will be authorized to have discussions with mainland counterparts but not to engage in substantive negotiations. The five officials reportedly are Council for Economic Planning and Development Vice Chairman San Gee, Financial Supervisory Commission Banking Bureau Director General Chang Ming-daw, Ministry of Transportation and Communications (MOTC) Civil Aeronautics Administration Director General Li Long-wen, MOTC Tourism Bureau Director General Janice Seh-jen Lai, and Ministry of Economic Affairs Investment Services Department Director General Berton Chiu.) ¶5. (C) Wu said Politburo Standing Committee member Jia Qinglin would be heading the CCP delegation, which would include officials from the Taiwan Affairs Office and some department-level officials from PRC government agencies. TAIPEI 00001759 002 OF 003 Noting he had met Jia Qinglin three times previously, Wu said Jia would be hosting a welcome dinner for the KMT delegation on December 19. ¶6. (C) The two sides will exchange views on expanding cooperation, including on finance and services, Wu said. There will also be discussions on expanding investment, with each side identifying sectors in its economy for possible investment by the other side. The two sides will also discuss ideas for the kind of framework to establish for cross-Strait economic cooperation. This would not be an FTA. It would also be different than the CEPA that the mainland has with Hong Kong and Macau. (Note: In a separate meeting, Commonwealth Publishing head Charles Kao told AIT he would be leading a panel at the forum on enhancing cross-Strait financial ties. Kao has attended the three previous KMT-CCP meetings, all of which he described as relatively academic in nature. He expects this weekend's meeting to benefit from the overall improvement in cross-Strait ties by focusing on more concrete areas for enhancing cooperation, but added that the forum is not designed to result in specific agreements or outcomes.) ¶7. (C) In a separate meeting, Minister without Portfolio Chu Yun-peng told AIT the Taiwan side's agenda at the KMT-CCP forum would likely also focus on enhancing Taiwan's access to ASEAN. He explained that Taiwan firms, especially in the chemical sector, are at an increasing tariff disadvantage vis-a-vis Southeast Asian competitors, and are pressing for better access to ASEAN. A bilateral FTA with an ASEAN member would help set the stage for an overall improvement in Taiwan's cooperation with ASEAN, he added. (Note: Taiwan has previously expressed interest in negotiating a bilateral FTA with Singapore, which has signaled that improvement in cross-Strait relations is a necessary prerequisite for enhanced bilateral economic ties with Taiwan.) ¶8. (C) The Director asked Wu about coordination between the government and the party on cross-Strait initiatives and whether there was any concern Beijing might try to exploit possible differences between Taiwan government and KMT views. Explaining that he meets with the president two or three times per week, Wu stressed that his and Ma's positions on cross-Strait ties are "entirely identical." Taiwan officials of his generation (Wu is 70) understand the communists very well, Wu emphasized, adding that he and others are very careful not to allow Beijing to manipulate them. WHO/WHA -------------- ¶9. (C) Beijing may not have decided yet how to handle the WHO/WHA issue, the Director observed. Wu said Taiwan needs to find an opportunity to talk to PRC President Hu Jintao about the issue, adding that he was hopeful Taiwan could gain observership in the WHA next May. Taiwan's goal next year is to become an observer, not a member. This is a question of human rights, not sovereignty. If Beijing does not take this opportunity and continues to oppose Taiwan next May, the public reaction in Taiwan will be very negative, Wu emphasized. Wu stressed the importance of continued efforts with Beijing by the U.S., Japan, and EU. KMT Deputy Secretary General Dr. Steve Chan (Chi-hsien),who accompanied Wu to the meeting with the Director, expressed hope that Taiwan and the U.S. could discuss the WHO issue, perhaps after the Chinese New Year holiday (which falls at the end of January). The Director promised to pass on the proposal, but pointed out that many second-tier officials in the new administration might not be in place that early. Chan suggested that NSC officials might be a possibility since they do not require Senate confirmation. (Note: Wu said Chan, a prominent surgeon who lived in the U.S. for 16 years, is now in charge of the KMT's international affairs and will be a member of Speaker Wang Jin-pyng's delegation to the TAIPEI 00001759 003 OF 003 inauguration in Washington.) Party Chairman -------------- ¶10. (C) Wu noted that his current term as party chairman will end in August 2009, and the party will elect its next chairman in May or June. While noting age (70) and health considerations, Wu was coy about his possibly staying on as party chairman for another term. 2009 Local Elections -------------- ¶11. (C) In planning nominations for the December 2009 local elections, Wu said the KMT was watching to see who the DPP nominates. The party would be flexible, not necessarily deciding all candidates at one time. The government will decide over the next two weeks whether to consolidate Taichung City and County, forming a higher level municipality, for which the mayoral election would be held in December 2010. Taipei County, which also wants formal municipal status, will protest if the government, as expected, elevates the status of Taichung. Current Magistrate Chou Hsi-wei is not necessarily the strongest candidate for the KMT in Taipei County, which will be the most important contest in December 2009. Because of Taipei County's very large size, candidates need to be people who are well known island-wide rather than in just one part of the county. For this reason, Wu predicted, the DPP may pick party chair Tsai Ing-wen or former Premier Su Tseng-chang (a former Taipei County magistrate) as its candidate. Wu also thought it possible that former VP Annette Lu might run in Taoyuan County, where she previously had served as magistrate. Former President Chen Shui-bian -------------- ¶12. (C) On the Chen Shui-bian case, the KMT is not making any statements because it wants to show respect for the law, Wu said. President Ma also could not say anything. However, Ma viewed the handcuffing of Chen as inappropriate treatment of an ex-president. Individuals, including KMT legislators, will say what they want about Chen Shui-bian, Wu said, claiming that the public views the case as a matter of corruption, not political persecution. Comment -------------- ¶13. (C) Taiwan is upgrading the importance of the KMT - CCP by having Chairman Wu rather than Lien (who heads the KMT's thinktank) lead its delegation and also by including five government officials on the roster. The government may believe it needs a strong team to have productive discussions on complex, technical issues like banking cooperation. It is also possible that President Ma wants to lower the profile of Lien Chan, who just served as Taiwan's APEC representative in talks with Hu Jintao. Although Lien's views may not differ much from those of Ma, Lien has a history of not coordinating closely with Ma, and Ma may want to exert greater control of the overall cross-Strait process. Given the importance of the issue to Taiwan, we would expect Wu and Lien to raise WHO/WHA in their meetings with Jia Qinglin and perhaps other officials at the KMT-CCP forum, though Wu understands well that the final decision lies with Hu Jintao. SYOUNG