MA TO CODEL ISSA: CROSS-STRAIT TIES ON RIGHT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 001748 CODEL SIPDIS H - PLEASE PASS TO REPRESENTATIVE ISSA E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/16/2038 TAGS: CH EAGR ECON EFIN ETRD INT PGOV PINR PREL TW SUBJECT: MA TO CODEL ISSA: CROSS-STRAIT TIES ON RIGHT TRACK, BUT CHALLENGES AHEAD Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young for Reasons 1.4(B) and (D). ¶1. (C) Summary. As the new U.S. administration reviews its approach on trade issues, Taiwan hopes to work with the U.S. to put in place the building blocks for an eventual bilateral FTA, Taiwan President Ma told Congressman Darrell Issa during a December 17 meeting. Taiwan appreciates U.S. security assistance as it works to improve relations with China, first by securing peace and prosperity across the Straits and resolve urgent problems while leaving more difficult issues for later. The mainland is sophisticated and pragmatic enough to understand this approach. Improving economic ties with the mainland will provide increased investment opportunities for both sides and help address the deterioration of Taiwan's economic competitiveness caused by previous isolationist policies. Backing away from earlier optimism regarding WHO/WHA observership, Ma expressed hope only that Taiwan could "make it" to the WHA meeting in May ¶2009. Congressman Issa urged President Ma to quickly resolve the beef issue. End Summary. Trade, Arms Top Wishlist for Congress -------------- ¶2. (C) Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou and Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA) discussed cross-Strait relations, U.S.-Taiwan ties, economic issues and prospects for China's political development in the course of a cordial one-hour December 17 meeting. AIT Director and Taiwan NSC Senior Advisor Yang Yung-ming also participated in the meeting. Asked what issues Congress should raise with the new administration, Ma said he hoped U.S. policy toward Taiwan would remain unchanged. While he understood USG concerns about fully opening the Taiwan market to U.S. beef, Taiwan was still dealing with heightened public sensitivities about food safety in the aftermath of the melamine scare from the mainland. In Ma's view, the Obama administration would be lukewarm to FTAs, so Taiwan was focused instead on putting in place "building blocks" that would eventually lead to an FTA. The first such step would be a bilateral investment agreement, hopefully followed by a tax-avoidance agreement. ¶3. (C) Ma noted that improvements in the cross-Strait relationship were accompanied by some increased risks. In particular, the missile threat is very different from 10 years ago. As dialogue with China moves forward, it was essential that Taiwan maintain a strong defense capability and continue its intelligence sharing relationship with the United States. Taiwan appreciated U.S. support in the form of military hardware, as well as technical assistance and other "software." Congressman Issa reassured Ma that the U.S. would use its resources to make sure that Taiwan was not caught off-guard and would provide the intelligence analysis needed to counter any threats that might arise. WHO/WHA -------------- ¶4. (C) Taiwan stood a better chance than in the past of securing some form of participation in the WHA or WHO in 2009, Ma said. He pointed to Lien Chan's participation at the APEC meeting in Lima, the six agreements signed between SEF and ARATS in 2008, and ARATS Chair Chen Yunlin's visit to Taiwan as signs of Beijing's growing trust and grounds for cautious optimism. However, despite this good start, difficult work remained. It could not be accomplished "overnight." (Comment: Ma appears to have stepped back slightly from his previous statements on his WHO/WHA goals. In the past, he called for securing a deal with Beijing on WHA observership by the May 2009 meeting. In this meeting and in a recent Washington Post interview, the President said only that he hoped to "make it" to the WHA. End comment.) Taiwan Economy -------------- ¶5. (C) Taiwan had not taken advantage of its position at the geographic center of East Asia, Ma said and, by waiting too long to improve cross-Strait ties, had closed some doors for its economic competitiveness. The results were clear. Kaohsiung harbor, once the world's third-busiest port, had dropped to eighth. The Chen administration's isolationist policies had exacerbated Taiwan's trade problems, but the business environment on the mainland had also changed and TAIPEI 00001748 002 OF 003 Taiwan was looking at incentives to encourage Taiwan businessmen to return home. For example, Ma said, Kaohsiung was adding a new container terminal to capture more transshipment traffic. ¶6. (C) Just twenty years ago, Taiwan had to send Buy America missions to the U.S. every year to look at California oranges, Washington apples, and other products. Now, said Ma, there was no need to educate the Taiwan business community on American products. The U.S.-Taiwan trade relationship is vibrant and, because the U.S. is the largest consumer market in the world, its financial situation affects world markets. Congressman Issa warned that U.S. orders of consumer electronics were likely to drop in the first quarter of 2009, affecting Taiwan's exports and economic performance in the first half. However, if the new Obama administration takes the fiscal policy measures anticipated, he continued, we should see a positive effect in the second half of 2009. Congressman Issa also urged President Ma to quickly resolve outstanding issues involving U.S. beef. ¶7. (C) Despite the limited global exposure of its banks, Ma said, Taiwan still had economic problems, exacerbated by years of isolationist policies under the Chen administration. Taiwan would be "getting fiscal," boosting the economy by funding infrastructure projects, encouraging increased consumption, and providing employment opportunities. To increase consumption, by Chinese New Year the government would issue consumer vouchers which could be used to buy almost anything. The administration had also encouraged the business community to come up with innovative strategies to get people to buy more. Asked about currency exchanges between Taiwan and the mainland, Ma said these had occurred for more than six years and, since July 30, they had taken place on a nationwide basis despite the lack of a settlement agreement. Currency swaps might be on the agenda of future cross-Strait discussions, he noted. ¶8. (C) While some criticized him for "kowtowing" to China, Ma said, a significant majority of the people on Taiwan were in favor of expanding ties with the mainland. The agricultural sector, in particular, would benefit greatly from decreased transportation times and increased markets on the mainland. Produce prices were highly volatile due to Taiwan's frequent heavy rains and typhoons and its relatively small market. If China could take just a few thousand tons of produce each year, it would greatly relieve these pricing pressures. ¶9. (C) Congressman Issa asked if Taiwan was looking at the photovoltaic market for the future. Taiwan's flat screen technology could serve as a basis for future photovoltaic production. The synergies were there and California, said Issa, would much rather spend its money on green technology than purchasing carbon credits. China's Path to Social and Political Reform? -------------- ¶10. (C) The gap between rich and poor in Taiwan was quite low, Ma said, making it easier to attain social harmony. Congressman Issa noted that if there was an equitable distribution of opportunities, then wealth would follow. Common prosperity was only possible in free societies like Taiwan. The PRC will never make the jump Taiwan has made until they have rule of law, said Issa. Allowing some people to get rich first was the only way the mainland could achieve such phenomenal economic growth, Ma noted, expressing hope for China,s future democratic development. While the USSR seldom sent students to the West, after 1978 China followed the Taiwan model and sent hundreds of thousands. In Taiwan, initially only 17 percent of Taiwan students abroad returned. Ten years later, though, 70 percent (including Ma) had done so because Taiwan had changed and economic opportunities had increased. As Chinese students return from studying in the West, Ma argued, they will bring back the democratic values to which they were exposed. Ma admitted that the process would inevitably take longer in a country as vast as China. ¶11. (C) If prosperity could spread from the few coastal cities, such as Shanghai and Hong Kong, to the rest of China, Congressman Issa asked, could change follow? A few years ago, Ma noted, Beijing had a plan to develop the northeast hinterland, but there was not enough incentive for coastal companies to move. There needed to be more investment in infrastructure, expanding rail lines and highways. The TAIPEI 00001748 003 OF 003 current global economic situation, however, would probably delay this type of investment. ¶12. (U) Delegation has not cleared. SYOUNG