PRESIDENTIAL OFFICE SECRETARY-GENERAL YEH CHU-LAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000165

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2023
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL OFFICE SECRETARY-GENERAL YEH CHU-LAN
ON ELECTIONS, UN REFERENDUM, AND CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS

Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reason 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: In a January 31 meeting with Presidential
Office Secretary-General Yeh Chu-lan, the Director stressed
that the U.S. continues to oppose the planned UN referendum
and urges the Chen administration to refrain from taking any
other steps that could increase cross-Strait tensions in the
coming months. Yeh said Chen and presidential candidate
Frank Hsieh understand the U.S. position clearly. She
emphasized that they are equally committed to maintaining
cross-Strait peace and stability. Yeh urged the U.S. to be
less concerned, noting that the referendum would have no
legal effect on Taiwan's international status if it were to
pass. The Director and Yeh also discussed the presidential
campaign, relations between Hsieh and Chen, and the January
legislative election results. End Summary.


2. (C) In a January 31 meeting with Presidential Office
Secretary-General Yeh Chu-lan, the Director stressed that the

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U.S. continues to oppose the planned UN referendum and urges
the Chen administration to refrain from taking any other
steps that could increase cross-Strait tensions in the coming
months. The U.S. highly respects Taiwan's democracy, he
emphasized, but remains concerned that steps taken by
President Chen could undermine cross-Strait peace and
stability.


3. (C) Yeh responded that Chen and presidential candidate
Frank Hsieh understand the U.S. position clearly. She
stressed that Taiwan's leaders hope to maintain cross-Strait
peace and will not do anything to provoke China, adding that
the U.S. should not to take the UN referendum "so seriously."
If the referendum passes it would have no legal effect on
Taiwan's international status, Yeh argued, and it would be
unlikely to lead to military conflict with Beijing. The
referendum is a vehicle for conveying the desire of the
Taiwan people to become members of the international
community, nothing more, Yeh asserted. Not passing the
referendum, she insisted, would be a greater "disaster" for
Taiwan.


4. (C) Yeh told the Director that Frank Hsieh, concerned
the initiative may not pass, has urged voters to participate
in both the DPP and KMT-backed UN referenda on March 22. He
has also asked President Chen to approach the KMT to work out
a compromise, though prospects for this currently appear dim.
The KMT, she explained, is divided internally over whether
to boycott the referenda balloting or to openly support at
least its own referendum. Yeh suggested that even if the KMT
boycotts the balloting the referenda could pass because
greater Taiwan participation in the international community
has widespread support among voters. Although the 2004
defensive referenda were less popular, Yeh noted, still 46
percent of all eligible voters participated, falling just 4
percent short of the minimum threshold for a valid
referendum.


5. (C) Yeh said that, as president, Hsieh would continue
the moderate stance on cross-Strait relations he has staked
out before and during the campaign. Yeh, who is close to
Hsieh, emphasized that he is a "man of his word" and does not
make promises he can't deliver. She noted that Hsieh has
remained consistent in advocating for more liberal economic
cross-Strait policies in the face of pressure and criticism
from the deep Green wing of his party to take a more
anti-China approach.


6. (C) Communications between Hsieh and Chen remain good,
Yeh told the Director, noting that Chen has begun to adopt a
low-key role in the presidential campaign. Chen is sincere
about helping Hsieh win and understands that if Hsieh does
not become the main actor in his campaign, he will lose the
race. Yeh said Chen has learned from the negative example of
former President Lee Teng-hui in 2000, who overshadowed KMT
candidate Lien Chan throughout the campaign and cost Lien the
presidency. In a one-on-one competition between Ma and
Hsieh, Hsieh comes off as the much stronger leader and is a
better strategist, Yeh asserted, so the race will be close.


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7. (C) Despite the DPP's poor performance in the
legislative elections, Yeh said, the party's support base
remains steady at around 40 percent. Hsieh will focus on
winning slightly more than half of the roughly 20 percent of
voters considered "undecided" in order to break the 50
percent barrier. His more moderate and consistent position
on cross-Strait relations, as well as his better track record
in Kaohsiung and on crisis management, will help him appeal
to those voters, Yeh added.


8. (C) Turning to an assessment of the DPP defeat in the
January legislative elections, Yeh told the Director the new
electoral system put the DPP at a disadvantage and
exaggerated the party's losses. Nevertheless, the primary
factor behind the loss was the low voter turnout and poor DPP
mobilization of supporters in comparison to the KMT. Yeh
suggested that many DPP supporters were dissatisfied by
President Chen's performance, especially the series of
corruption scandals that has enveloped some of his family
members and senior advisors since 2005, and simply did not
turn out to vote. Additionally, the revamping of the party's
primary system last year created many problems and did not
produce the best candidates with broad appeal, giving voters
in many districts an added reason to stay away from the
polls.


9. (C) Yeh suggested that the KMT three-quarters
legislative majority has fueled concerns about an
over-concentration of power and a return to one-party rule.
The magnitude of the KMT victory, ironically, has had a
stronger effect in consolidating and energizing the DPP base
than if the DPP had managed to eke out a respectable showing.
With the deep Green base concerned that Ma might win the
presidency, Hsieh has more room to maneuver and stake out a
centrist path on more sensitive issues without fear of being
undermined by the independence fundamentalists. Light Green
voters who sat out the legislative elections are also
concerned about KMT dominance of the political system and
more likely to vote in the presidential race.


10. (C) Presidential campaigning will continue throughout
the Chinese New Year, with only a brief break on New Year's
eve and day, February 6-7, Yeh added. The Hsieh team is
planning to use important anniversaries to boost support for
Hsieh and the DPP. Activities for the February 28
anniversary are still being worked out. One proposal is to
launch a youth march across Taiwan on February 28 that would
travel from the northern to the southern tip of the island.

Comment
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11. (C) Yeh is close to Frank Hsieh and is seen by many as
the candidate's eyes and ears in the presidential office
since she took up this position last summer. She clearly
isn't about to concede defeat for her party in the
presidential election, though she is realistic about the
challenges Hsieh faces. Should he win, she is rumored to be
a leading candidate to assume the post of premier.
YOUNG