DPP CHAIR TSAI ING-WEN FEARS MORE VIOLENCE IF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001599

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL CH TW
SUBJECT: DPP CHAIR TSAI ING-WEN FEARS MORE VIOLENCE IF
PRESIDENT MA CONTINUES TO IGNORE HER PARTY'S VIEWS

REF: TAIPEI 1569

Classified By:
AIT Director Stephen M. Young,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)

Corrected Text - Para 6.


1. (C) Summary: A visibly tense Democratic Progressive Party
(DPP) Chair Tsai Ing-wen told the Director on November 10
that she was decidedly downbeat about the future of Taiwan
democracy. Claiming that President Ma Ying-jeou wasn't
really in charge of his party (the KMT),Tsai predicted more
protests and even possible bloodshed if the KMT doesn't pay
closer heed to the views of Taiwan's opposition on crucial
issues like sovereignty and balanced democratic development.
Tsai said she was not in any hurry to agree to a meeting with
Ma, as is increasingly being put forward by the Presidential
Office. She argued that without a better sense that Ma can
deliver on his promises, it might be better to hold out for a
broader dialogue involving all the key players on both sides
of the political spectrum. As she has done in the media
these past several days, Tsai was studious in rejecting
responsibility for the violence that occurred last Thursday
during the visit of Chen Yunlin (Nov. 6),instead, blaming Ma
and the police for the limited incidents that occurred. End
summary.


2. (C) Tsai said she hoped the protests against President Ma
and PRC Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait
(ARATS) Chairman Chen Yunlin's visit showed CHINA and the
world that there are people in Taiwan who deeply object to Ma
and his cross-Strait policy. Tsai defended the DPP's efforts
to control the protest and keep it peaceful, asserting that
only a limited group of 20 to 30 people were involved in
violence with police (see reftel). She said the DPP directed
the crowds not to march from the original rally point toward
the Grand Hotel where Chen was staying and even used a truck
to try to block demonstrators. Tsai also dispatched the
party's secretary-general and a lawyer to warn the
demonstrators and ask them to disperse. According to Tsai,
some DPP figures who were at the protest scene near the Grand
Hotel helped calm the demonstrators.


3. (C) Tsai did not repeat her earlier public allegations
that gangsters had instigated the violence at the protests.
Instead, she blamed Ma for poorly handling the situation and
the police for not protecting ordinary people. Tsai said the
last-minute change of time for the meeting between Ma and
Chen "irritated" people and spurred a much larger turnout
than anticipated. Tsai claimed 100,000 participants joined
the daytime rally to protest the Ma-Chen meeting, contrary to
police estimates of 30,000 people. She explained that police
are usually interspersed in the crowds during demonstrations
but this time the KMT government did not send any police to
help monitor the rally. Instead, the police were all at the
front of the rally, forming lines to block protesters. (Note:
Poloff only saw one uniformed policeman among the
demonstrators on November 6 in contrast to rallies on
November 3 and October 25 when police stood around and walked
among the crowds.)

Finding A Suitable Mechanism For Dialogue With Ma
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Acknowledging the media's fixation on a possible
Tsai-Ma dialogue following the protests, Tsai doubted
discussions could improve the situation without any changes
in Ma's ability to control the KMT's "messy" party politics.
In addition to competing with other KMT leaders, Ma is also
vulnerable to Beijing's United Front tactics, Tsai suggested.
In Tsai's view, former Vice President Lien Chan was
Beijing's, not Ma's, choice to serve as Taiwan's
representative to APEC this year.


5. (C) Nonetheless, Tsai did not discard the idea of
dialogue but maintained discussions should involve the
greater opposition as a whole and not just the DPP. The
party is examining how to develop a mechanism for dialogue

TAIPEI 00001599 002 OF 002


between the opposition and the KMT administration and will
talk to the Taiwan Solidarity Union among others to gauge
interest. Tsai suggested the Ma administration should do its
"homework" as well. Tsai added that she is in no rush to
meet Ma and needs to obtain consensus within her party on the
dialogue idea. Some within the DPP believe it is useless to
engage Ma, and there are those who deem protests the best way
to bring about change.

More DPP Detentions Likely
--------------


6. (C) While putting up a front of trying to work things out
with the DPP, the KMT is actually attempting to weaken the
DPP's chances in next year's local elections by taking
unreasonable judicial action against several DPP local
leaders, Tsai maintained. Drawing from her legal background,
Tsai argued that the authorities could only detain suspects
before trial if they were a flight risk or might collude with
witnesses and co-defendants. These reasons did not apply to
Yunlin County Magistrate Su Chih-fen who was detained on
November 5. Tsai claimed the KMT has a list of DPP leaders
against whom it plans take judiciary action. She believed
the next leader to be targeted may be Tainan Mayor Hsu
Tien-tsai. However, Tsai predicted, KMT plans will backfire
if the party continues down this route.

Resigned to Protest
--------------


7. (C) Tsai alluded to her moderate temperament and stressed
she did not like violence. However, she feared violence
would be "inevitable" and it could get "very bloody" if Ma
does not revise his cross-Strait policy and if he continues
to curb the people's legal rights and the freedom of speech
and expression. Police efforts to coddle Chen Yunlin and
thwart protesters signaled that Taiwan's democracy is in
jeopardy.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) In contrast to previous meetings where Tsai seemed
upbeat and confident in her ability to control the DPP, this
time she acknowledged the differences between herself and
some other party leaders. Visibly tense, Tsai appeared to be
under pressure from hardliners within her party to remain
tough.


SYOUNG