FORMER PREMIER SU TSENG-CHANG ON DOMESTIC POLITICS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 001531

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/29/2023
TAGS: PGOV PREL CH TW
SUBJECT: FORMER PREMIER SU TSENG-CHANG ON DOMESTIC POLITICS
AND DPP LEADERSHIP

Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: In a meeting with the Director on October
24, former Premier Su Tseng-chang expressed disappointment
that the DPP has not been able to take advantage of what he
regarded as the dismal performance of President Ma Ying-jeou
and the KMT administration. While Ma's approval rating in
polls has fallen to the mid-20s, support for the DPP also
remains mired in the low 20s. In Su's view, the problem has
been the DPP's inability to take clear and speedy action in
determining the party's future course and dealing with the
controversial former President Chen Shui-bian. While
crediting Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen with doing her best, Su
suggested she lacked political experience and grassroots
understanding of the DPP. Su also complained that the
indecisiveness of party headquarters in selecting candidates
could cost the DPP in the December 2009 local elections. End
Summary.

Demonstrations Must be Peaceful
--------------


2. (C) The Director and former Premier Su Tseng-chang
discussed DPP politics and related issues in a meeting at
Su's office on October 24. Su told the Director that
supporters from the two counties where he had served as
magistrate (Pingtung and Taipei) were very enthusiastic about
participating in the protest demonstration the opposition
party would be holding in Taipei City on October 25. While
DPP supporters would have to express their anger against
President Ma Ying-jeou (KMT) and their unease over the KMT's
dealings with the PRC in the October 25 demonstration, the
avoidance of violence was especially important. Su expressed
concern the KMT might try to "trap" the opposition into a
violent situation, which, he asserted, the KMT had done in
the 1979 Kaohsiung Incident.


3. (C) When he was DPP chairman in 2005, Su recalled, he had
taken effective measures to ensure that a very large
demonstration against the PRC's Anti-Secession Law was
peaceful. Su said he was concerned current Chairperson Tsai
Ing-wen lacked experience and therefore might not take the
necessary steps, including a crisis response mechanism, to
ensure that the October 25 demonstration would be peaceful.
(Note: The October 25 demonstration turned out to be
peaceful, without major incident.)

Ma Ying-jeou's Difficulties
--------------


4. (C) Since coming into office five months ago, President
Ma Ying-jeou's rating in public opinion polls has plummeted
dramatically, Su noted. Su attributed Ma's low standing in
the polls to popular dissatisfaction both with his statements
on Taiwan's status and also with the way he has dealt with
problems. Economic issues are another factor in Ma's polling
problems, Su added. Over the past 10-20 years, Su observed,
the KMT was able to protect Ma and play up his image, which
made Ma the most widely accepted political figure in Taiwan.
Now that he is president, however, Ma is facing widespread
criticism, and dissatisfaction far exceeds satisfaction with
his performance.


5. (C) According to Su, another reason for public
dissatisfaction with President Ma (and Premier Liu) is their
perceived arrogance. During the previous administration, the
DPP government supported the improvement of cross-Strait
economic relations, but the obstacles to progress came from
the PRC side. The KMT, however, accused the DPP of
mismanagement and of pursuing a closed economic policy during
the election campaign. After coming to power, the KMT's
cross-Strait economic policies, such as increasing PRC
tourists, have not proven effective. Furthermore, Ma has
been too weak toward China.

DPP Has Its Own Problems
--------------


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6. (C) Unfortunately for the DPP, Su continued, the party
has been unable to take advantage of the opportunity
presented by Ma's difficulties. This is reflected in
polling, which shows that public support for the DPP has not
increased. After former President Chen admitted in
mid-August that his family had sent funds overseas, support
for the DPP declined to just 17 percent. Following the
August 30 protest demonstration against the KMT government,
support for the party rose to 23 percent but it has now
fallen again to 20-21 percent.

Chen Shui-bian
--------------


7. (C) In Su's opinion, the DPP's low standing is because
the party has not given the public a clear definition of what
it stands for, and it has not dealt resolutely with the Chen
Shui-bian situation. Given Chen Shui-bian's legal problems,
it is quite understandable the former president would seek
support by traveling to local areas and speaking out,
claiming that he was a victim of political persecution. Chen
Shui-bian is simply fighting to protect himself. However,
the question facing the DPP is how to deal with the Chen
situation. The DPP had several opportunities when it should
have dealt quickly and clearly with Chen, but it did not do
so. The problem was a lack of "guts" and "decisiveness," Su
suggested.


8. (C) Continuing, Su observed that the KMT has been playing
up the investigations of Chen and his family for corruption,
leaking sensitive details about ongoing confidential
investigations by the prosecutors. KMT politicians like
Legislator Chiu Yi have been revealing case developments on a
daily basis. At the same time, the aggressive KMT campaign
against Chen has increased sympathy and support for the
former president in the DPP base. While these supporters are
opposed to corruption, they believe the KMT government's
legal proceedings against Chen are unfair.


9. (C) Su acknowledged that DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen has
worked very hard and wants to do a good job. However, Tsai
does not fully understand the DPP, having no previous party
experience. In addition, she is hemmed in by the party's
factions, which have their own agendas. If the DPP wants to
become the ruling again, it will have to shift to a more
centrist position to attract a majority of the voters. In
2000, Su recalled, the DPP won the presidency by adopting a
middle-of-the-road platform. However, after the 2004
election, President Chen shifted the party toward an extreme
Deep Green position in reaction to the KMT protests against
him over corruption issues.

Concern about Prospects for 2009 Local Elections
-------------- ---


10. (C) Su said he was very concerned about DPP prospects in
the December 2009 local elections. Su complained that party
headquarters, which now has the power to select candidates,
has waffled rather than acting decisively. Although
selecting one candidate rather than another is bound to
create some hard feelings, delaying the nomination process
will increase rather than reduce problems. If the DPP does
poorly in the 2009 local elections, Ma will misinterpret the
results and believe he is acting correctly.


11. (C) DPP Chairperson Tsai needs to be firmer, Su
suggested. Observing that Tsai has "many opinions," Su said
his only option was to patiently offer his advice. In
polling on Taiwan's ten top political figures, Su noted that
Tsai Ing-wen came out first with about 50 percent, while he,
with 46 percent approval, was in fourth place behind Tsai,
Legislative Yuan Speaker Wang Jin-pyng, and KMT Chairman Wu
Poh-hsiung.

Comment
--------------


12. (C) Without directly criticizing Tsai Ing-wen, Su seemed
to suggest that he could do a significantly better job in

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running the DPP. Su clearly would like to see the DPP make a
stronger recovery in preparation for future elections
beginning in late 2009. We suspect he would like to take on
Ma in 2012, but believes the party needs to be in a better
position if he is to have a chance. Tsai of course is a
potential rival for the 2012 DPP nomination but only if she
can prove herself in the local elections next year. Hence,
Su's ambiguous assessment of Tsai's performance thus far
attempts to juggle his own competing priorities.
SYOUNG