DPP PLANS MORE PROTESTS FOR CHEN YUNLIN VISIT BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001530 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/29/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL CH TW SUBJECT: DPP PLANS MORE PROTESTS FOR CHEN YUNLIN VISIT BUT CONCERNED ABOUT KMT AND PRC PRESSURE REF: A. TAIPEI 1520 ¶B. TAIPEI 1496 Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reasons: 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen told the Director on October 28 she was pleased the party's October 25 protest demonstration had gone smoothly and had received very broad support from other likeminded organizations. Without providing details, she said the DPP will be holding further demonstrations to protest against the Ma administration and the November 3-7 visit of PRC Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait (ARATS) Chairman Chen Yunlin. Tsai expressed concern over reports the PRC is pressuring Taiwan businesspeople and about rumors that mainland "gangsters" might travel to Taiwan to "teach the DPP a lesson." She complained about KMT efforts to block or limit the DPP from holding protests against Chen at suitable locations and stressed the importance of avoiding any violence during the demonstrations. End summary. ¶2. (C) DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen was pleased with the October 25 protest demonstration. In addition to proving the party can voice its concerns peacefully, the large turnout showed the DPP is enjoying more support than ever from Taiwan's independence-leaning groups. She also was pleased that former President Chen Shui-bian kept his participation low key, and she noted the ability of DPP supporters to differentiate between the party and Chen. Aside from a few pro-Chen signs, demonstrators stuck to the rally's themes of protesting the Ma administration's failures and China policies. ¶3. (C) While DPP International Affairs Director Lin Chen-wei, who accompanied Tsai, observed that last Saturday's rally was "just the beginning," Tsai did not offer details on upcoming protests, saying the party was still hashing out details. Nonetheless, the goals are clear. The DPP continues to maintain ARATS Chairman Chen Yunlin should not come to Taipei on November 3 but realizes Beijing will not call off the trip, which would be a loss of face. Thus, the DPP will call on ARATS Chairman Chen to apologize on behalf of the PRC government for the failure of its regulatory system to prevent the export to tainted products to Taiwan. Tsai argued that the October 27 statement ARATS issued apologizing for the mistakes of one producer of melamine-tainted milk products was insufficient. Don't Kowtow To China -------------- ¶4. (C) Blasting the Ma administration for "coddling" China will be another focus of upcoming protest activities, Tsai said. Ma already has cornered Taiwan into a "big brother, little brother" situation with China instead of striving for a relationship based on equal footing. Tsai chided Ma for indicating he would be fine with being addressed as "Mister" during Chen's visit. Ma's weakness continues to play into China's ability to extract more from him in return for progress on direct cargo flights, sea transport links and other issues. ¶5. (C) According to Tsai, the Ma administration suggested that the timing was not right for Chen's visit but Beijing was insistent. She also maintained China has asked for a statement alluding to "one China" and expressed concern the KMT is scheming to edge Taiwan into a framework based on the 2005 accord between former KMT Chairman Lien Chan and PRC President Hu Jintao. The five-point 2005 framework for promoting cross-Strait peace and development is based on the "1992 consensus," which formulated the idea of one China with different interpretations. KMT and PRC Pressure -------------- ¶6. (C) As the DPP proceeds with plans to stage more TAIPEI 00001530 002 OF 002 protests, Tsai and Lin complained that the KMT is behind efforts to thwart the DPP. Lin maintained that some pro-KMT gang members were sighted at the last rally. Though circumstances remain unclear, the DPP also alleges that gangsters with possible mainland links threatened DPP Councilor Wang Ting-yu, who was involved in last week's Tainan scuffle with ARATS Vice Chairman Zhang Mingqing (ref B). Tsai also told the Director she wished to relay to him concern that PRC authorities are pressuring the Taiwan business community in the mainland. For example, businesses are being told to contribute to a fund set up by PRC authorities to pay for expenses involved in attacking Taiwan political figures. In addition, Tsai heard rumors that Chinese authorities might direct "gangsters" to go to Taiwan to teach the opposition a lesson. If such stories are true, Tsai feared the environment in Taiwan would become "scary" and that no one would dare stand up to China. ¶7. (C) Under these conditions and amidst ongoing "provocative" statements by PRC officials and Ma about peace agreements, Tsai maintained it was getting harder for her and DPP supporters to stick to a moderate position. Adding to the pressure are the attempts by the KMT to obstruct upcoming DPP rallies. Tsai noted the Ma administration already has blocked off a large area surrounding the Grand Hotel where Chen will stay; and she labeled this action an obstruction to the demonstrators' right to freedom of speech. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) While boosted by the large turnout at the October 25 demonstration, Tsai also appeared to be under some pressure from her party core to take a tough line against Ma Ying-jeou over his perceived excessive concessions to Beijing. The usually cautious and legal-minded Tsai suggested the party might decide to ignore what they viewed as "unreasonable" legal restrictions on their ability to protest the Chen visit. In her view, it is imperative for the DPP to let Chen Yunlin know that democratic Taiwan has divergent views on his visit. She did, however, stress the importance of avoiding any violence during protests against the Chen visit, lest it damage the DPP's image. SYOUNG