KMT CHAIRMAN WU POH-HSIUNG ON PRESIDENT MA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001521

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/27/2023
TAGS: PGOV PREL CH TW
SUBJECT: KMT CHAIRMAN WU POH-HSIUNG ON PRESIDENT MA
YING-JEOU, THE DPP, AND CHEN YUNLIN'S UPCOMING VISIT

Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: In a meeting with the Director on October
27, KMT Chairman Wu Poh-hsiung attributed President Ma
Ying-jeou's low standing in public opinion polls to the
economic downturn, public disappointment that Ma's presidency
has not fulfilled expectations, and Ma's early standoffish
attitude to his own party. Wu also complained that Ma has
been careless in some public statements, giving the DPP an
opening to accuse him (incorrectly in Wu's opinion) of
diminishing Taiwan's status. Despite the current
difficulties, Wu suggested that Ma has an opportunity to
recover as the opposition DPP remains mired in its own
problems, which include a reputation for violent behavior and
a failure to cut links with the controversial former
President Chen Shui-bian. Wu stressed the importance for the
visit by the PRC's Chen Yunlin to go forward despite the
large DPP protest on October 25. He expressed hope Chen
Yunlin would find a way to express regret for the harm to
Taiwan caused by the import of melamine-contaminated milk
powder. End Summary.

President Ma Ying-jeou's Problems
--------------


2. (C) In a meeting at KMT headquarters on October 27, the
Director asked Chairman Wu Poh-hsiung why President Ma
Ying-jeou's approval rating in recent polling is so low (in
the mid-20's). Wu attributed Ma's low showing to various
factors, including the economic downturn. Because Ma came
into office with such high expectations, the fall in his
polling numbers has been precipitous. Some KMT supporters
who bought stocks after Ma's election are of course unhappy
with the fall in their share values, Wu observed. In
addition, Ma hurt himself by trying to draw a line between
himself and the party when he first came into office,
neglecting his staunchest supporters in the KMT. Now,
however, he is working to correct this problem, establishing
closer relations with the party.


3. (C) Ma also has not been articulate in expressing his
positions, often not providing a full context for his points,
Wu said. For example, Ma did not take into account how the
public would react when he described Taiwan and the mainland
as two districts and when he said relations between Taiwan
and the mainland were not state-to-state relations. The DPP
has been adept at pulling out controversial statements by Ma
to claim he is diminishing Taiwan's status. This is not
true, however, as Ma's position is based on the constitution,
Wu argued.


4. (C) Former TECRO Representative Stephen Chen, who
accompanied Wu at the meeting, observed that many pan-Blue
supporters are unhappy with Ma's handling of the corruption
case of former DPP President Chen Shui-bian. While they want
Ma to take action against Chen, Ma says he has to act
according to the law.

The DPP Has Its Own Problems
--------------


5. (C) Despite his current low standing in the polls, Ma has
an opportunity to recover before the next presidential
election in 2012, Wu maintained. It is very difficult to
imagine the DPP returning to power in 2012, the KMT chairman
said, adding that he doubted people dissatisfied with the KMT
would think the DPP would do a better job. The DPP's
problems are that it has not effectively separated itself
from Chen Shui-bian's corruption, and it seems unable to
prevent supporters who take to the streets from engaging in
violence. Sooner or later, there will be problems caused by
DPP protesters, Wu predicted.


6. (C) Wu attributed the high turnout for the DPP protest
demonstration on October 25 to economic problems and to the
efforts of party fundamentalists who are opposed to the
mainland. However, the DPP estimate of 600,000 participants
was at least three times too high, he suggested. Stephen

TAIPEI 00001521 002 OF 002


Chen observed that the DPP bussed in some of the participants
from other areas.

Upcoming Visit of ARATS Chairman Chen Yunlin
--------------


7. (C) On the upcoming visit of Association for Relations
Across the Taiwan Strait (ARATS) Chairman Chen Yunlin, which
begins November 3, Wu stressed that the two sides cannot stop
their exchanges just because of problems (caused by
protesters). If the demonstrators go too far during Chen's
visit, it will not be good for the DPP. However, Wu
expressed some concern about whether the party leadership
could control the base.


8. (C) Wu indicated he expects to meet Chen Yunlin during
the visit, but added that a meeting has not yet been
arranged. During the visit, Wu said, he hoped Chen would
find a way to express PRC regret for the harm caused to
Taiwan by the import of melamine-tainted milk powder. Wu
also noted that contrary to some DPP arguments, Chen's visit
will be on a basis of equality since ARATS and Taiwan's
Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) have the same status.


9. (C) According to Wu, party unity is not a problem because
KMT leaders have no choice but to give the government full
support. However, he acknowledged that one reason for the
low polling numbers for Ma and the cabinet is the criticism
of the government by KMT members and supporters. Although it
is the job of legislators to criticize the government, it is
important for the KMT's legislators to avoid "scolding" the
premier and cabinet. On another topic involving the KMT
leadership, Wu confirmed that KMT Honorary Chairman Lien Chan
is a candidate to serve as Taiwan's representative to the
upcoming APEC Informal Leaders Meeting in Peru, but he
suggested a final decision has not yet been made.

2009 Local Elections
--------------


10. (C) Wu said the KMT will only begin preparing for the
December 2009 local elections after it holds its party
congress on November 22, 2008. According to Wu, the KMT is
in no hurry to name candidates and may want to see first who
the DPP nominates in certain races. While the KMT may
nominate some candidates early, it may well wait until three
months before the elections to select some of its candidates.
The Director noted that Magistrate Chou Hsi-wei (KMT) could
have some difficulties being reelected in Taipei County. If
needed, Wu said, the KMT can choose a stronger candidate,
reassigning an incumbent magistrate to a position in the
central government.

Comment
--------------


11. (C) Wu was clearly pained by Ma Ying-jeou's low polling
numbers. Although the numbers reflect economic difficulties,
they are also indicative of Ma's weak political leadership
and his apparent insensitivity to the views of the many
ethnic Taiwanese who support the opposition. Ma is also the
victim of the exaggerated expectations that he and the KMT
raised in the election campaign. Because the DPP is still
floundering, however, Ma will have an opportunity to make
course corrections in the coming months. Wu, other KMT
leaders, and legislators will doubtless have plenty of advice
for Ma and the cabinet. Wu indicated that, if needed, he
would be prepared to continue as party chairman when the
position comes open next year.
SYOUNG