LARGE OPPOSITION RALLY PUTS PRESSURE ON PRESIDENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001520 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/27/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL CH TW SUBJECT: LARGE OPPOSITION RALLY PUTS PRESSURE ON PRESIDENT MA AHEAD OF PRC ENVOY VISIT REF: A. TAIPEI 1515 ¶B. TAIPEI 1306 ¶C. TAIPEI 1496 Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reasons: 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary. The opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) staged a large, peaceful demonstration in Taipei on October 25 mainly to protest against President Ma Ying-jeou and the PRC. The demonstration was intended to put pressure on the Ma administration ahead of the visit next week by PRC Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait (ARATS) Chairman Chen Yunlin and to signal to Beijing (and others) that many on Taiwan are uneasy over what they view as Ma's headlong rush to embrace the PRC. Ma is unlikely to make fundamental changes to his cross-Strait policy, but this impressive show of opposition muscle will doubtless make the already cautious President even more tentative. End Summary. Rally Retained Anti-Ma, Anti-China Focus -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Hundreds of thousands of enthusiastic supporters joined a multipronged OCTOBER 25 march consisting of five different routes, each led by a prominent DPP or Taiwan Solidarity Union figure. (Note: This included former premiers Su Tseng-chang and Yu Hsi-kun but not former presidential candidate Frank Hsieh.) After an hour-long march, demonstrators arrived at the rally point, where they heard speeches from DPP Chair Tsai Ing-wen and other current and past opposition leaders. In between speeches, entertainers took to the stage to energize the crowd. The rally concluded at 10:00 p.m. and a few protesters tried to stay overnight. While the turnout may not have reached the 600,000 people the DPP claimed, AIT judges the crowd exceeded the 200,000 police estimate. Helped by good weather, this turnout surpassed DPP expectations (ref A) and was much larger than an August 30 opposition rally (ref B). Even pro-KMT media acknowledged that the crowd was surprisingly large. ¶3. (C) AIT officers present noted the participants themselves seemed surprised by the throng, as street after street swelled with people. Many participants were unable to enter the packed main rally area in front of the Presidential Office, spilling over instead into adjacent streets where large TV screens were set up to show the main stage. Controversial former President Chen Shui-bian, mired in corruption investigations, joined one of the marches but kept his promise not to take the stage by leaving the march as it arrived at the rally point. While Chen doubtless attracted some supporters to the event, he did not have a major impact on the rally itself or the themes of the rally. There were no significant clashes between pro- and anti-Chen opposition groups. ¶4. (SBU) The demonstration proceeded peacefully and smoothly, with only minor incidents. Participants focused on calling on Ma to apologize for his poor leadership, on Premier Liu Chao-shiuan to step down, and on ARATS Chairman Chen to cancel his trip to Taiwan. Marchers along one route chanted "Safeguard Taiwan, Taiwan is a country, China is a (different) country" and demanded Ma and Liu step down. Demonstrators also urged China to keep tainted products out of Taiwan, a reference to outrage over the import from China of melamine-contaminated milk powder products. Some protestors held signs in English that read "President Ma: U are fired. Taiwan is not for sale." During the rally itself, bilingual chants included "Taiwan: yes, yes, yes. China: no, no, no." A few even carried U.S. flags along the way. Analysis: DPP Proves Its Relevance, Puts Ma On Defensive -------------- -------------- ¶5. (SBU) DPP officials have faulted Ma for placing greater stock on dialogue with Beijing than with the opposition on Taiwan. DPP Director of International Affairs told AIT that one purpose of the demonstration was to let Ma know he cannot TAIPEI 00001520 002 OF 002 ignore 40 percent of the Taiwan electorate that support the DPP. Clearly, the success of this weekend's march shows that the opposition remains relevant and can tap its supporters' general dissatisfaction with the current administration and with China. The DPP's challenge now is to keep the momentum going. Already, the party is planning a series of protests that will take place prior to and during ARATS Chairman Chen Yunlin's visit, beginning November 3. In addition to a Saturday, November 1 vigil, organizers are proposing rallies on November 3-4 at the Taipei Main Train Station. (Note: The KMT pre-empted rallies at the Presidential Office by reserving the space for itself.) ¶6. (C) While Ma is unlikely to change his overall cross-Strait approach as a result of this demonstration, the size of the turnout underscores to him and his advisors the extent of his public relations problem. In particular, the President is likely to become more cautious in his comments on subjects that can be construed as affecting Taiwan's sovereignty. Many protestors - and even some supporters - have criticized Ma for his repudiation of former President Lee Teng-hui's "Special State-to-State Relations" formulation, his musings about signing a peace treaty with the PRC and his reference to Taiwan as a "region," rather than a state. In his public response to the protest, Ma's spokesman maintained Ma was working to protect and improve Taiwan but acknowledged the need for greater efforts. In a partisan dig, he said the President would be willing to sit down with DPP Chair Tsai and discuss anti-corruption (referring to Chen Shui-bian),anti-violence (referring to the scuffle involving ARATS Deputy Zhang Mingqing and a DPP supporter - ref C),and economic issues. Tsai has rejected this agenda. ¶7. (C) More immediately, Saturday's turnout likely will prompt Ma to approach the visit of ARATS head Chen Yunlin with great caution. Ma may take a break from making statements related to Taiwan's sovereignty. Security will be tight, as Ma looks to keep protestors at bay and avoid another ugly and embarrassing conflict between a PRC official and opposition protestors. The general dissatisfaction the protest highlighted reinforces the need for Ma to make progress on issues that will bring concrete economic benefits to Taiwan. Additionally, the anti-China vitriol related to the import of tainted milk products is real and is by no means limited to the opposition DPP. In an apparent effort to appease the Taiwan people, pave the way for Chen Yunlin's visit, and dampen protests, ARATS issued an apology to the Taiwan people on Monday (October 27) for failing to prevent the export of comtaminated milk products to Taiwan. SYOUNG