LEGISLATIVE ELECTION PREVIEW: BLUER SKIES ON THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000015 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/04/2018 TAGS: PGOV TW SUBJECT: LEGISLATIVE ELECTION PREVIEW: BLUER SKIES ON THE HORIZON IN TAIPEI CITY AND COUNTY Classified By: AIT Deputy Director Robert S. Wang, Reasons: 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Heading into the final weekend before Legislative Yuan (LY) elections on January 12, the opposition KMT appears poised to improve upon its strong 2004 legislative showing in Taipei City and Taipei County. Heavy concentrations of mainlanders, civil servants, urban professionals, and retired military make this region fertile ground for KMT candidates. While the KMT hopes to win 13-16 of the 20 district races in Taipei City and County, the ruling DPP would be pleased to win 6-7 seats in this Blue-majority region. These are the first LY elections under the new single-member district electoral system, and uncertainties about how the new system will work coupled with the closeness of a number of races means there could be some surprises and upsets on election day. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) This cable, one of a series of regional reports in the run-up to the January 12 legislative elections, includes information from meetings with party officials, legislators, and academics. Paras 3-5 discuss Northern Taiwan as a whole. Paras 6-8 provide general capsules on Taipei County and City, followed by details on selected individual district contests. KMT Sees Bluer Skies Ahead -------------- ¶3. (C) Taipei City KMT Chairman Pan Chia-sen told AIT his party expects to do very well overall in northern Taiwan, where the voter population structure favors the Blue. In addition, recent DPP confrontational initiatives such as the "anti-Chiang Kai-shek" campaign should increase the turnout of KMT voters who want to "teach the DPP a lesson." His party should take a substantial majority of LY seats in the north, Pan predicted, adding that in some places, such as Taipei City, the KMT could do even better, possibly winning almost all seats. ¶4. (C) With just over one week to go before the January 12 Legislative Yuan (LY) elections, the overall KMT advantage in Taipei City and County is clear. The KMT hopes to win 13-16 of the 20 district races in the region. In capital Taipei City (8 seats),high concentrations of mainlanders (27 percent in 1992),civil servants, professionals, and military community retirees all favor the pan-Blue. Taipei County (12 seats),which has many residents who moved from other areas of Taiwan, is more mixed and has both large Blue and large Green communities in different areas. DPP Hopes to Prevent a KMT Landslide -------------- ¶5. (C) The ruling DPP, whose main strength is in southern Taiwan, would pleased to win 6-7 or more of the 20 races in Taipei City and County. Taipei City DPP Chairman Lee Cheng-yi told AIT that his party faces an uphill battle in the northern Taiwan legislative races. The prolonged dispute over voting procedures has dampened interest in the LY elections, especially among the swing voters the DPP needs to win in the north since its base is generally smaller than the KMT. A number of DPP candidates, moreover, have promoted Taiwan identity and anti-China themes, while downplaying social, education, and other issues that could have better resonance with urban, undecided voters. By emphasizing Deep Green themes in the north, Lee said, his party was courting "disaster" and risked ending up with very few LY representatives from northern districts. Taipei County (12 Seats): The Grand Prize -------------- ¶6. (C) With a population of over 3.8 million, Taipei County is a sprawling mixture of dense urban, suburban, and semi-rural districts in the north encircling Taipei City. It is the most populous county in Taiwan and is divided into 12 single-member LY districts, representing close to 20 percent of the total 73 geographic seats under the new electoral TAIPEI 00000015 002 OF 003 system. Like most northern areas, the county has a Blue majority, the Blue-Green voter ratio overall being around 55-45. Election Districts 2-6 in the northeastern half of county traditionally lean toward the DPP, while the southwestern areas heavily populated with retired military, educators, and civil servants, tend to support the KMT. ¶7. (C) Although independents or small party candidates are running in all 12 districts, their impact is usually slight, and the races are for the most part a competition between the KMT and DPP. The KMT has set its sights on winning 8 or more seats, a goal that local DPP officials tell AIT is within the KMT's reach. KMT candidates are very strong in Districts 1, 8, 9, and 11 and enjoy a slight advantage in Districts 6, 10, and 12 (KMT incumbent Lee Ching-hua's district). The DPP's county party chairman suggested that President Chen's aim of winning 6 seats here may be overly optimistic. Only 2-3 of the races are considered relatively "safe" for the DPP. The DPP is strongest in Districts 2 and 5. Districts 3, 4, and 7 are highly competitive, with DPP candidates favored to win Districts 3 and 4. Although the pan-Green Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) has nominated candidates in six districts, only the TSU candidate in District 2 is running a campaign strong enough to split the Green vote, which could hand the election to the KMT in an otherwise Green majority district. Details on Selected Taipei County Contests -------------- --District 1 places Wu Yu-sheng, an incumbent KMT legislator and member of presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou's inner circle, against Lee Hsien-jung, a five term incumbent KMT legislator who defected to the DPP this fall after losing the KMT primary to Wu. Though trailing, Lee has a slight chance of winning if he can pool DPP support with votes from ethnic Taiwanese KMT supporters. --District 2, which has a strong Green majority, features a four way race between two pan-Blue and two pan-Green candidates. Although the KMT's Ko Shu-min and DPP's Lin Shu-fen lead in the polls, former pan-Blue People First Party (PFP) legislator Yang Lien-fu, running as an independent, and TSU legislator Lin Chih-Chia have strong local support. SIPDIS Despite a split field, the DPP predicts that Lin Shu-fen can still squeeze out a victory. --District 3 is a close contest between KMT Legislator Chu Chun-hsiao, who comes from a strong local political family, and Yu Tien, a popular actor and musician recruited by the DPP. Although the district has a strong Green majority, Yu trails his KMT rival in DPP internal polls and is hoping to use his star image to overtake Chu in the final weeks of the campaign. --District 4 pits Wu Ping-jui, DPP vice presidential candidate Su Tseng-chang's protg, against the KMT's Lee Hung-chun. Though both are incumbent legislators, Lee is new to the district, having moved here only after losing a primary bid to represent his party in another Taipei County district. Wu has a two percent lead in DPP internal polls and this race is likely to go down to the wire. --District 8 is a strong Blue area where two incumbent legislators who got their start from the same KMT local faction over two decades ago are competing for reelection. The KMT's Chang Ching-chung suffers from a poor image stemming from questionable dealings in motel and gas station businesses, but he is ahead of DPP candidate Chao Yung-ching, who has a smaller grassroots base. --District 10's voter population structure favors the KMT by a 55-45 ratio. KMT candidate Lu Chia-chen is currently the second term mayor of the district's largest city and has a slim lead over the DPP's Lee Wen-chung. Lee, a three term legislator, made headlines last year by resigning his seat because he was unable to fulfill a promise to ask President Chen to step down if involved in a corruption scandal. Taipei City (8 Seats): DPP Struggles to Survive TAIPEI 00000015 003 OF 003 -------------- -- ¶8. (C) With over 2 million eligible voters, Taipei City is the second largest administrative area in Taiwan and has 8 LY seats under the new electoral system. Unlike the surrounding county where the KMT and DPP are more evenly matched, the city is largely Blue territory, as indicated by KMT candidate Hau Lung-bin's 13 percent margin of victory over DPP candidate Frank Hsieh in the 2006 mayoral election. Blue supporters outnumber the Green in all of the redrawn election districts except District 2. The two camps are closely matched in District 5, though the KMT base is slightly larger. In the remaining six districts, Blue supporters outnumber the Green by an average 60-40 ratio, making victory very difficult for any Green candidates. Both DPP and KMT city party officials expect the KMT will win at least 6 of the 8 legislative contests and could possibly even sweep all the races since the other two contests are close. Two well-known KMT LY incumbents who are expected to win easily are Lai Shyh-bao in District 8 and Diane Lee (Ching-an) in District 6. In slightly closer races, KMT LY member John Chiang (Hsiao-yen),grandson of Chiang Kai-shek, is expected to prevail in District 3, while KMT incumbent Ting Shou-chung will probably win District 1. Details on Selected Taipei City Contests -------------- --District 2 pits DPP Legislator Wang Shih-chien against KMT Legislator Justin Chou (Shou-hsun). Though this is the only district in Taipei City with a DPP majority, Wang, who has a feisty, negative image in general, has recently been plagued by a scandal surrounding an extramarital affair with the daughter of a family friend. Wang has also had difficulty mending internal DPP fissures created by the particularly rough primary campaign he ran against well-respected Bikkim Hsiao, giving Chou a shot at parlaying his relatively clean and reformist image into a KMT victory. --District 4 is the only strongly Blue district where the DPP has a long-shot at pulling off an upset. KMT Legislator Tsai Cheng-yuan, who has been hit by fallout from investigations into the sale of China Motion Picture Corporation, faces a challenge from two local KMT politicians who have entered the race as independents. DPP Legislator Hsu Kuo-yong, who is close to presidential candidate Frank Hsieh, would achieve a major upset if he is able to capitalize on Tsai's difficulties. --District 5, where Blue voters slightly outnumber the Green, has shaped up as a tight race. DPP Legislator Tuan I-kang, a mainlander from the reform New Tide wing of the party, has served this district previously as a city councilor. His opponent, KMT Legislator Lin Yu-fang, by contrast moved to here only recently after losing his bid to run in another area. Tuan, who has managed to consolidate pan-Green support after a TSU candidate bowed out of the race, is leading Lin by a narrow margin in both DPP and KMT internal polls. YOUNG