TONGA UPDATE -- DISCONTENT; ROYAL LIFESTYLE;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 SUVA 000071 SIPDIS SIPDIS CANBERRA, PORT MORESBY PASS TO EAP PDAS DAVIES E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/19/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV CJAN PHUM TN SUBJECT: TONGA UPDATE -- DISCONTENT; ROYAL LIFESTYLE; CORRUPTION; PACE OF REFORM; APRIL ELECTION REFERENDUM; HUMAN RIGHTS NOTES REF: A. SUVA 064 ¶B. SUVA 020 Classified By: Amb. Dinger. Sec. 1.4 (B,D). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Conversations in Tonga Feb. 6-9 revealed that discontent continues. The economy is doing poorly; the King's lifestyle and his extravagant plans for an August 1 coronation rankle; allegations of official corruption are gaining currency; and pro-democracy elements hanker for more rapid progress on political reform. PM Sevele figures all is on track for suitable political reforms to be in place in ¶2010. King George V continues to tell us he wants politicians to move faster and wants more international pressure. We will continue to apply appropriate pressure, noting that the pace of reform is for Tongans to judge. General elections under the current, royal-dominated system will take place in April. Many see those elections as a de facto referendum on political reform. Some elements hope to organize an informal church-based referendum at the same time to gain explicit feedback on the public's reform aspirations. Meanwhile, PM Sevele, who remains unhappy with U.S. Human Rights Reports, has allegedly attempted to tamper with the trials of pro-democracy figures accused of instigating the November 2006 riots. A Chinese loan to help re-build Nuku'alofa remains controversial politically and fiscally. End summary. February visit to Tonga -- cast of characters -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Ambassador Dinger visited Tonga Feb. 6-9 to participate in the port visit of the USS Reuben James and to gauge the current political and economic state of play in the lead-up to parliamentary elections April 24. Interlocutors included King George V, PM Sevele, Foreign Minister Tu'a, Finance Minister 'Utoikamanu, Attorney General Taumoepeau, pro-democracy leaders Pohiva and Lauti, former Lord Chamberlain Fielakepa, Australian and New Zealand diplomats, and others. See ref B for discussion of mil/mil issues. Discontent continues -- economic factors -------------- ¶3. (C) Tonga remains troubled. The November 2006 riot and its context are still vivid. Interlocutors did not suggest another riot is in the offing; but many people are not content. A factor is that the economy is doing poorly. Many farmers now sell their vegetables along Nuku'alofa's sea-front street instead of utilizing the central market, intending to increase their tiny margins by not paying market taxes. A number of costs are going up. The King's Shoreline utility just increased electricity prices by over 20 percent because of rising petroleum costs. Villagers, who will be called on to contribute hugely to King George V's coronation party July 30-August 3, are grumbling. The saving grace remains remittances from abroad, which dipped in post-riot 2007 but now are rebounding. The King's lifestyle rankles -------------- ¶4. (C) King George V's extravagant lifestyle grates on the public. He traveled in Europe and Asia for two months over Christmas, to have first fittings for his coronation regalia and to extend invitations to his foreign-royal "cousins." The King is due to depart shortly on another two-month trip, to include more fittings and, presumably, more invitations. The King envisions that foreign envoys will wear 18th-century court costumes for the coronation event. A black-tie gala is planned as well. A pro-democracy activist alleges the King recently stressed to PM Sevele and cabinet that he "needs his millions" to maintain his appropriate lifestyle. Pip and Estella, the royal pups -------------- ¶5. (C) The King recently imported two Jack Russell terriers, Pip and Estella (see Dickens' "Great Expectations"). The pups passed right through quarantine. We hear the same evening an acquaintance of the King received an urgent royal summons. Pip was soiling the King's villa and needed immediate training. On arrival, the acquaintance suggested that the King dig out some old piece of clothing with some SUVA 00000071 002 OF 004 embedded royal scent, something the pup could cuddle up to in the night. The King was so shocked, it took twenty minutes to recover composure. He appeared unable to comprehend how one could presume he (1) had any old clothing and (2) had body odor. The story has been making the rounds of Nuku'alofa ever since. Pricing Shoreline: differing expectations -------------- ¶6. (C) When the King ascended the throne in September 2006, he immediately promised to sell off his controversial business interests. That has taken a while. The international company Digicel recently bought the Tonfon cell-phone business, reportedly in a reasonably transparent transaction. The Shoreline utility has been more difficult. No independent bidders are interested, so PM Sevele agreed that the Tonga Government would buy the utility back. Finance Minister 'Utoikamanu reportedly insisted that any buy-back be transparent and legally defensible. He called in Price Waterhouse Coopers to establish a fair price, reportedly $9 million. The King was expecting more like $30 million, and was most unhappy. PM Sevele and 'Utoikamanu have disagreed about many political issues since the riot. Rumors have circulated widely that 'Utoikamanu is to be sacked; however, so far he remains on the job. When we asked 'Utoikamanu what would have made his status shaky, he simply replied: "Shoreline." PM, corruption allegations and e-mail chains -------------- ¶7. (C) PM Sevele has other headaches besides 'Utoikamanu. In December, the CEO for Tonga's Tourism Ministry publicly accused his Minister of corruption and provided details. Sevele publicly indicated that the Minister's actions appeared to be within the range of normal Tonga practice, though he eventually agreed to refer the allegations to the Auditor General. Meanwhile, an anonymous person who seemingly works at a senior level inside government and who titles himself "rolling thunder" has sent e-mails to a broad distribution list accusing Sevele of corrupt practices, with details, including allegations of a seven-figure sole-source contract to Sevele's own business for goods to supply last October's Pacific Islands Forum meetings. We hear the veracity of the allegations varies; but some are true and Sevele is furious. A cabinet meeting Feb. 7 to discuss the allegations reportedly focused on hiring a New Zealand lawyer to ferret out the e-mailer, not on cleaning up government practices. Anti-corruption Commission to commence -------------- ¶8. (C) Attorney General Taumoepeau believes at least the allegations against the Tourism Minister are a "real problem that needs a solid response. It should not just be swept under the table." Taumoepeau takes credit for a new anti-corruption commission law with a whistle-blower provision, recently passed by Parliament. The Commission is to start up this month and might serve as a mechanism to investigate the various rolling-thunder rumors, if the e-mailer dares to come forward. Government assures reforms on track for 2010 -------------- ¶9. (C) Considerable debate continues in Tonga about the political reform process. PM Sevele stresses that Parliament last fall blessed significant reforms to be implemented by ¶2010. The reforms, produced by a tripartite commission, will change Parliament's composition to 17 elected people's representatives (up from 9); 9 nobles' reps (no change); and 4 royal appointees (down from 12-16). The King will choose the PM from within Parliament, and the PM will choose the cabinet also from within Parliament. Debate continues about election-system details, though Foreign Minister Tu'a says that the outcome will be single-member, first-past-the-post districts. Some others have argued to retain the current multi-member districts and/or to institute a preferential voting system. Three current ministers (all appointees) told us they expect their service to end in 2010, since they have no intention of standing for election. King says politicians moving too slowly -------------- SUVA 00000071 003 OF 004 ¶10. (C) King George informed us that he continues to believe the pace of political reform needs to accelerate. His precise words were: "The a--hole politicians (read PM Sevele) are moving too slowly." The King confirmed he remains more worried about pro-democracy frustrations than about conservative reaction to reform. Asked why he doesn't just order Sevele to speed the pace, the King said he has truly accepted he must be divorced from politics and must act "only on advice." Still, the King urged the U.S. and other international actors to push the Tonga Government to "move faster." We acknowledged having raised the issue in the past, within the context that the actual pace of reform is for Tongans to determine. Leaders need to make really sound judgments based on Tonga grass-roots realities, not on the Government's own preferences. Comment -- does he mean it? -------------- ¶11. (C) It is certainly possible that King George is telling the U.S. what we want to hear, while pressing behind the scenes for PM Sevele to limit and slow reform. The King has no "commoner" instincts at all, and we doubt he really intends to act only on advice from commoners. PM Sevele forced the rather enlightened Noble Fielakepa, a former IVP grantee, to retire as the King's Lord Chamberlain recently. When asked what happened, Fielakepa speculated that some of his efforts to keep the King informed may have left a royal impression that he, Fielakepa, "was too close to the people." April elections -- the players and platforms -------------- ¶12. (C) Meanwhile, Tonga will hold constitutionally mandated elections in April 2008, under the old system. Sevele, now as a royal appointee, does not have to run, and he has decided not to. Several sources said Sevele is very unpopular and would lose badly. All the current pro-democracy People's Representatives intend to run, as do a number of new faces, including Tonga Pro-Democracy Movement Chair (and former IVP participant) Mrs. Lauti. Reportedly a new party with connections to Tongans in New Zealand is planning to run on a pro-government platform. Several pro-democracy politicians intend to campaign on the theme that the election is a referendum for the people: do they prefer the pro-democracy movement's push for rapid reform, or do they prefer PM Sevele's slower pace? The pro-democracy types are confident they will continue to win the bulk of seats, despite allegations some of them instigated the riots. Some incumbents may lose, but they expect any new blood to be pro-democracy blood. Akilisi Pohiva expects to win, but he says this, his eighth run, will be his last. An informal referendum on reform? -------------- ¶13. (C) Pro-democracy leaders Pohiva and Lauti described an effort by "neutral third parties," including the Church of Tonga, to have voters also cast ballots at churches in an unofficial referendum on reform during the April election. Pohiva claimed he is not an instigator of the concept, but he certainly seemed plugged in. The Tonga Government has been invited to take a role but has not responded. The organizers are seeking international funding and think the Canadian Government may assist. When Pohiva obliquely inquired about USG funding, we suggested the short lead time would make that very unlikely. Human rights notes -------------- ¶14. (C) In a prepared speech at the New Zealand High Commission's Waitangi Day celebration, PM Sevele chastised elements in the New Zealand and Tonga media for unfairly criticizing Tonga Government policies. Sevele went on to praise the former NZ High Commissioner for, in effect, not having criticized Sevele policies in his reporting to Wellington. Since Sevele is notoriously thin-skinned about criticism, it is no surprise that he is irritated by U.S. Human Rights Reports. He disliked all critical references in the 2006 HRR. Last spring, we suggested he provide written details of any inaccuracies. That written report finally arrived early this month, and actually wasn't too disparaging. Given that the 2007 HRR is about to be issued, we urged Sevele to provide any complaints this year early and SUVA 00000071 004 OF 004 in writing for future consideration. Trying and failing to tamper with the judiciary -------------- -- ¶15. (C) The Nuku'alofa riot that endangered Sevele family members and burned down their supermarket remains a particularly sensitive issue for the PM. He believes strongly that five pro-democracy People's Reps instigated the riot. The criminal cases against the five were deferred to August, after the April elections. That angered Sevele. Reliable sources report that he recently phoned Chief Justice Ford demanding that the cases be speeded up and that the People's Reps be found guilty, with maximum sentences imposed. CJ Ford, flabbergasted at such blatant interference, reportedly hung up on the PM. Ford's contract as CJ expires soon, something Sevele may have intended as a pressure point; but we hear the contract has now been extended. Sevele has initiated five personal lawsuits against Kelea, Pohiva's opposition newspaper, for alleged libel. China loan -- tied and a burden on the future -------------- ¶16. (C) Finance Minister 'Utoikamanu confirmed to us that a US$55 million PRC loan provided to assist with post-riot reconstruction of Nuku'alofa is "all tied aid in Chinese currency," with Chinese construction companies and Chinese workers, though some local sub-contracting will probably occur. The King and PM Sevele had wanted there to be cash, but it was not to be. 'Utoikamanu was reluctant to sign the loan papers, worried in particular about the debt burden on future generations; but he did sign under PM pressure. 'Utoikamanu said he deeply regrets it and wishes he could revoke his signature. Many loan details remain to be negotiated. Comment -------------- ¶17. (C) The April elections appear to be a de facto referendum on King, PM, and People's Reps, whether or not the separate, "neutral" effort to offer an informal, church-related referendum bears fruit. If current People's Reps win, or if the next-generation pro-democracy candidates win, the King and PM will be on notice that the public wants meaningful reform ASAP. If the pro-democracy candidates fall, the King and PM can calculate a slower pace. The August 1 coronation is another trigger point. If organizers for the King's extravagant plans attempt to suck too much sustenance from the common Tongan, resistance could flare up again. DINGER