RE-INVENTED FIJIAN OPPOSITIONIST CALLS ON AMBASSADOR

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SUBJ: RE-INVENTED FIJIAN OPPOSITIONIST CALLS ON AMBASSADOR



1. (SBU) Mahendra Chaudhry, one of Fiji's leading opposition

figures who until recently served with the interim government,

called on Embassy Suva to explain to Ambassador his newfound

opposition to the interim government's electoral reform proposals,

support for a new election timetable, skepticism regarding recent

attempts at political dialogue, despair for Fiji's economic future,

and concern for Fiji's continued participation in the Pacific

Islands Forum. End summary.



ON ELECTIONS AND ELECTORAL REFORM



2. (U) Ambassador Steven McGann met for nearly two hours with

Mahendra Chaudhry on November 10. Chaudhry, a former prime minister

who was deposed by a civilian putsch in 2000, resigned in August as

the interim government's finance minister to reclaim his leadership

role of the Fiji Labour Party (FLP). The FLP is one of the two

largest and most important political parties in Fiji.



3. (SBU) Throughout the cordial meeting Chaudhry repetitively

called for elections and election reform, but with a different

timetable and different reforms than those proposed by the interim

government (IG). As a cabinet member, he strongly supported the

IG's proposed common role system. He now sees it as doomed to

failure, noting that under his understanding of the current

proposal, the ballot would contain an unwieldy 112 candidates.

Chaudhry believes strongly in a reform that combines two-thirds

common role representation and one third communal representation,

not unlike that proposed in the 1996 Reeves Commission report.



4. (SBU) Despite his recent close proximity to decision makers,

Chaudhry is baffled by how the IG will make elections work

logistically. He was emphatic that the country could not hold

elections by the end of March 2009--as promised to the Pacific

Islands Forum by Bainimarama in 2007--as first there must be an

agreement on reform, then boundaries need to be determined and

agreed to, and time must be set aside to consider electorate

objections. Chaudhry felt, however, that elections could

comfortably be held before the end of 2009, and suggested late

November and early December as an excellent time, because school is

out for the long southern hemisphere school break, and school

facilities make for ideal polling stations.



ON POLITICAL DIALOGUE



5. (SBU) Ambassador emphasized the need for an inclusive engagement

and discussion on elections that results in clear agreed-to

timelines and benchmarks. Chaudhry agreed that timelines must be

fixed, but worried that the proposed President's Political Dialogue

Forum (PPDF) might not happen as there has been no recent response

from either the Commonwealth or United Nations. Chaudhry then

quipped: "I don't know when we will talk seriously about

elections."



6. (SBU) Ambassador noted that neither women nor nongovernmental

organizations were represented in the recent preliminary political

dialogue and asked Chaudhry for his evaluation of "interlocutors"

Sitiveni Halapua and Robin Nair. Chaudhry said Robin Nair was too

tainted by his association with the Charter but worked well with

Halapua. He liked working with the more effective Halapua, as he

understood the "Pacific way." He would like Halapua to communicate

with Bainimarama and play a stronger, more facilitative and

aggressive role. Chaudhry nonetheless felt that the preliminary

political dialogue is nothing but a delaying tactic by Bainimarama

to avoid discussing the real issues that need to be taken to the

PPDF.



7. (SBU) Chaudhry strongly felt that the PPDF needs to happen as

soon as possible. He worried that the inclusion of women's and

civil society organizations in the PPDF would be a big mistake that

would drastically delay the process of getting to elections. He

urged that the PPDF focus solely on election reform and not include

Charter discussions, which should be kept to the side.



ON THE PEOPLE'S CHARTER



8. (SBU) When asked about his views on the People's Charter,

Chaudhry responded that the FLP has six main objections to the

Charter, but of those six, two for him are paramount: electoral



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reform as proposed and the role of the military as nebulously

defined in the Charter. In his view, the military needs to

downsize, as there is no external threat to Fiji. He stated that

the Charter is not a panacea, that the 11 pillars of the Charter are

nothing new, that the inherent ideas have been proposed by political

leaders in the past, many in the FLP's own manifesto. Chaudhry does

not believe the Charter cannot be enacted or observed on a de facto

basis without first being approved by a legally elected parliament.



ON THE ECONOMY



9. (SBU) With regard to the economy, Chaudhry feels the situation

will continue to spiral downward, especially without the

once-promised $350 million of EU sugar money. Chaudhry appeared

almost angry that so much of the national budget is spent on the

military when there are such critical needs in health, education and

other sectors. Ambassador cautioned that the IG must be careful

with economic policies, warning that if Fiji loses a company like

Fiji Water, it will send a terrible, irreversible signal to

potential investors. (Chaudhry's ill-considered imposition of new

and extraordinary taxes on Fiji Water nearly caused the company to

close shop and was said to be the proximate cause of Chaudhry's

dismissal as finance minister.)



10. (SBU) Chaudhry and FLP leaders have traveled and consulted

widely throughout Fiji over the last several months. Chaudhry found

that people want elections, feel they are living in a "vacuum," and

that without members of Parliament to turn to, they despair of

achieving any real progress. He discerned that young people

frequently talk privately about the political situation but dare do

so publicly. Chaudhry implied that many of his constituents have

given up on Fiji and postulated that Indo-Fijians would decrease to

25 percent of the population within 20 years.



ON THE PACIFIC ISLANDS FORUM



11. (SBU) Chaudhry urged the Ambassador to work with the

international community to take a position on electoral reform, be

more assertive, and to collectively act through the Pacific Islands

Forum Secretariat (PIFS) to make clear exactly what is expected of

the interim government. Ambassador responded that he is not here as

a proconsul and that the U.S. position is clear: until we have

significant progress toward the return of democratic governance in

Fiji, sanctions will remain in place, there will be no expansion of

Fijian participation in peace keeping operations, we will not

consider any notion of exceptionalism, and we have and will continue

to work through the PIFS.



12. (SBU) Chaudhry wondered what will result from Joint Forum

Working Group scheduled to discuss Fiji on November 20, the

Ministerial Contact Group proposed for later this month, and the

special meeting of PIF leaders to be hosted by Prime Minister

Michael Somare next month in Papua New Guinea. Chaudhry seemed

genuinely concerned with whether the PIF would suspend Fiji from the

PIF and noted that Bainimarama made a grave mistake by not going to

Niue for the Leaders meeting in August.



13. (U) Ambassador suggested that they should meet regularly.

Chaudhry was clearly interested and suggested that they should meet

after he returns from India next month.



COMMENT



14. (SBU) Chaudhry seemed comfortable in his return to the role of

political opposition leader. He has clearly changed his views since

departing the IG in order to be more in tune with that of his

constituents but seemed to be struggling with how far he could push

his new-found views without seeming hypocritical. He is a seasoned

political survivor with his finger on a larger social and political

pulse. While the subject was not explicitly discussed, Chaudhry

implied that there is much dissatisfaction in the Indo-Fijian

community. To tap into that dissatisfaction while simultaneously

assuaging both Bainimarama and the concerns of the indigenous

community will require Chaudhry to use all of his considerable

skills as a political chameleon. End comment.



MCGANN