EAST JAVA MUDFLOW UPDATE: 98TH GEYSER APPEARS AMID PROTESTS

UNCLAS SURABAYA 000099 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MTS, EB/ESC/IEC DEPT FOR DC/IP/EAP DOE FOR CUTLER/PI-32 AND NAKANO/P-42 COMMERCE FOR USDOC 4430 E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EINV EPET ELAB ENRG PGOV ASEC ID SUBJECT: EAST JAVA MUDFLOW UPDATE: 98TH GEYSER APPEARS AMID PROTESTS THAT COULD CAUSE DIKE COLLAPSE REF: SURABAYA 85 (AND PREVIOUS) This message is sensitive but unclassified. Please protect accordingly. ¶1. (SBU) Summary: As river levels rise due to increased sedimentation, local residents forced the Sidoarjo Mud Management Agency (BPLS) to stop pumping mud slurry into the Porong River. BPLS estimates that the added pressure could cause dike failure within several days, although the dikes' tolerance levels are unknown. Meanwhile, geysers and cash flares are erupting in communities several kilometers from the epicenter creating public anger and increased concern about the ever widening impact of subsidence. End Summary. Protests Threaten Dike Integrity -------------- ¶2. (SBU) A standoff with angry residents has stalled mud mitigation efforts and threatens the stability of the containment's dikes. For over a year and a half, the Sidoarjo Mud Management Agency (BPLS) has pumped mud slurry from holding ponds into the Porong River. According to BPLS, this has been the only thing preventing a buildup of pressure behind the earthen dikes and their large-scale collapse. BPLS stopped pumping mud into the Porong in the afternoon of August 20 after residents of Kupang village demanded that BPLS shutdown the pipes. As of 25 August pumping has yet to resume according to BPLS. As a result, each day an estimated 100,000 cubic meters of volcanic mud is added to nearby holding ponds and is approaching dangerous levels, according to BPLS engineers. Even when pumping is proceeding normally earth must be added to the dike walls due to continued subsidence (reftel). ¶3. (SBU) An August 21, visit by Congen Surabaya to the mudflow containment showed that this dry season is the strongest test for mitigation efforts yet. The original spillway connecting the containment with the river at its nearest point is now no longer used for disposing of the mud. Currently pumps force the mud slurry through pipes over a considerably longer distance. Now even this "plan B" for mud disposal is proving problematic due to protests and low river levels during the dry season. A BPLS geologist told us that at current flow rates the containment's earthen dikes could fail after several days, yet how much more the dikes might hold, and for how long, remains unknown. Geysers Erupt Well Beyond the Epicenter -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Geysers and gas flares caused by increasing subsidence continue to expand the area affected by the disaster well beyond the containment area. On August 19th, more gas flares erupted and several powerful geysers have appeared in Siring, some two kilometers west of the epicenter (reftel). Angry over their exclusion from compensation, Siring residents forcibly detained a BPLS spokesman and his staff for several hours and stopped the fire department from extinguishing a methane gas flare. According to a BPLS contact and local media, this was an effort to preserve evidence of the danger they face and bolster claims for compensation. Nearby Jatirejo village, just a kilometer west of the containment, reported its 98th geyser on August 12. Geysers and gas flares continue their march farther from the epicenter as subsidence continues. Mindi village, three and a half kilometers southwest of the mudflow epicenter, reported its first geyser on August 8. MCCLELLAND