EAST JAVA: MUDFLOW UPDATE: DEMONSTRATORS BLOCK MAIN ROAD;

UNCLAS SURABAYA 000040 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, INR/EAP, EB/ESC/IES DOE FOR CUTLER/PI-32 AND NAKANO/PI-42 COMMERCE FOR USDOC 4430 E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EPET ENRG PGOV ASEC EAID ID SUBJECT: EAST JAVA: MUDFLOW UPDATE: DEMONSTRATORS BLOCK MAIN ROAD; DEMAND COMPENSATION; POLITICAL STAKES INCREASE REF: A. SURABAYA 29 (FLAMES AND GEYSERS) ¶B. SURABAYA 27 AND PREVIOUS This message is sensitive but unclassified. Please protect accordingly. ¶1. (SBU) Summary: On March 24, residents of nine villages whose homes are being destroyed by the unabated mudflow took their demands for compensation to the street -- blocking the primary transportation corridor linking Surabaya with the rest of East Java for over eight hours. The blockade was lifted only after the Governor of East Java promised to meet with the demonstrators on March 25. Residents are demanding their villages be included in compensation plans, although their homes have yet to be submerged in mud. Gubernatorial candidates are attempting to keep out of this political quagmire, and offer few indications of how they would address the mudflow with Jakarta. As the mudflow, land subsidence, flaming geysers, and leaking methane affect ever widening areas and transportation bottlenecks affect provincial economics, local observers predict that the mud may become a powerful election issue in both the 2008 gubernatorial and 2009 presidential elections. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) Thousands of victims of the Sidoarjo mudflow took to the streets of Porong on March 24, demanding that the central government include their villages in compensation plans. Residents of Siring Barat, Jatirejo Barat, Mindi, Ketapang, Plumbon, Kalitengah, Glagaharum, Panjotan, and Gedang initiated their blockade of road and rail transportation routes linking Surabaya and East Java at 0900. The demonstration created gridlock throughout surrounding areas, cancelling trains and disrupting shipping schedules. The demonstrators demanded that the central government include their villages in the impact map that authorizes compensation as the increasing incidences of land subsidence, geysers, and methane leaks threaten their homes. After a late-afternoon meeting with the Deputy Regent of Sidoarjo, the demonstrators agreed to reopen the road on the condition that the Governor of East Java meet with them personally the following afternoon. ¶3. (SBU) Handoko Teguh from the Sidoarjo Mud Management Board (BPLS) told ConGen Surabaya that the villagers were unhappy with the central government's recent decision to compensate victims from three recently inundated villages (Kedungcangkring, Jabon, and Besuki Kulon) from the state budget rather than adding these areas to the impact map. Victims located within the boundaries of the impact map qualify for compensation from Lapindo, the company accused of triggering the mudflow. The ongoing rainy season has seen an increased incidence of dam collapses, widespread land subsidence, and the emergence of new flaming geysers and methane bubbles in the residential areas surrounding the mudflow containment areas. ¶4. (SBU) Professor Aribowo, a political observer from Airlangga University, told ConGen Surabaya that the protestors are fed up with promises from the local and provincial governments that their grievances will be raised with the central government. Aribowo suggested that it was time for the central government to visit the site and revise the impact map accordingly to allow all victims to receive appropriate compensation. Failure to demonstrate sufficient concern, he concluded, would see the central government's image drop rapidly. (Note: President Yudhoyono (SBY) has flown over the site, but never visited. SBY enjoyed widespread support in East Java during the 2004 presidential elections. End Note.) Aribowo added that it wasn't difficult to predict that additional villages will soon become victims as the area effected by the mudflow continues to grow. ¶5. (SBU) Radio callers during the standoff in Porong asked why none of the gubernatorial candidates were taking a position on the mudflow. Aribowo, who also works as an expert for the East Java parliament and has contact with the various gubernatorial campaign teams, surmised that the candidates have no idea how to handle the problems in Porong. He added that the candidates do not dare to raise this issue publicly for fear of creating conflicts with the power elite in Jakarta. Kiai Ali Maschan Moesa, the chairman of East Java NU and a Golkar vice gubernatorial candidate, told local TV station JTV that the victims of the mudflow should be moved quickly so that Porong could become a "tourist resort." MCCLELLAND