EAST JAVA MUDFLOW UPDATE: PROGRESS ON PLANNED USG TECHNICAL

UNCLAS SURABAYA 000027 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, INR/EAP, EB/ESC/IES DOE FOR CUTLER/PI-32 AND NAKANO/PI-42 COMMERCE FOR USDOC 4430 E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EPET ENRG PGOV ASEC ID SUBJECT: EAST JAVA MUDFLOW UPDATE: PROGRESS ON PLANNED USG TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REF: A. A: 07 SURABAYA 37 (USGS SITE VISIT) ¶B. B: SURABAYA 22 AND PREVIOUS This message is sensitive but unclassified. Please protect accordingly. ¶1. (SBU) Summary: On February 26, Sidoarjo Mud Management Agency (BPLS) Engineers Mr. Soffian Hadi and Mr. Handoko Teguh told Congen Surabaya Pol/Econ officer that U.S. assistance discussed in previous meetings (Ref A) is much needed and will likely receive official approval if the U.S. proposes a concrete time frame. The proposed assistance includes: 1.) A short-term technical survey visit by U.S. specialists; 2) Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) site survey by US aircraft; and 3) Long-term advisory assistance from a U.S. geologist headquartered at Congen Surabaya. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) During a February 26 meeting to discuss recent events at the mudflow site (septel) and prospects for U.S. assistance, Soffian Hadi and Handoko Teguh welcomed the prospect of U.S. assistance. Mr. Hadi said that although coordination and approval will involve national level and local agencies, he expressed confidence that coordination will be successful and necessary approvals obtained. Mr. Hadi expressed interest in learning of the results of a USGS analysis of mud samples taken in September 2007. He also agreed to advise Congen Surabaya regarding next steps. In addition to discussing technical assistance, the engineers also described current challenges at the site and responded to questions posed to them via Congen Surabaya by Thomas Casadevall of the U.S. Geological Survey. Responses to USGS Questions Regarding Current Conditions and Plans -------------- -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) What are BPLS's current long-term plans for mud management, how is the plan formulated and is there a time horizon implicit in the plan? Soffian Hadi said that infrastructure relocation is currently the only portion of mud management with a clear time horizon. BPLS hopes to facilitate relocation of the toll road beyond the area affected by the mud within two years. Unfortunately, recent dike failures and increased uncertainty about the direction and extent of future subsidence has made effective planning of the new road next to impossible. ¶4. (SBU) Are there other foreign "experts", consultants, or advisers involved in assisting the Board? Both BPLS engineers described recent visits by Dr. Amanda Clarke, Volcanologist and Assistant Professor at the University of Arizona. The BPLS engineers were not certain who financed Dr. Clarke's trip, but they understood that the Bakrie Group had arranged her visit to the site and assumed that they had financed it. Dr. Clarke traveled throughout East Java visiting volcanoes and will reportedly return during the March - April 2008 time frame with other specialists, according to Hadi and Teguh. Dr. Adriano Mazzini at the University of Oslo also visited the site recently and concluded that the mudflow cannot be stopped, according to Mr. Hadi. ¶5. (SBU) What additional engineering options are they considering? How have BPLS' efforts fared during the current rainy season? There are no plans to use other methods mud disposal beyond continuing to use the current spillway to pump mud slurry into the Porong River. During the current rainy season, the volume and flow rate of water in the Porong has effectively eliminated dry season sedimentation in the river. Mr. Hadi and Teguh felt that the rainy season performance of the dike system has been poor overall. A series of serious dike breaches have occurred due to pressures exerted by subsidence and rainy season floodwaters. (Ref B). MCCLELLAND