EAST JAVA: RAZOR THIN VICTORY IN RUN-OFF ELECTION SIGNALS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SURABAYA 000131 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, INR/EAP, DRL, DRL/AHW, EAP/PD E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI KISL ID SUBJECT: EAST JAVA: RAZOR THIN VICTORY IN RUN-OFF ELECTION SIGNALS VOTER APATHY AND PARTY DISUNITY REF: A. SURABAYA 94 (EAST JAVA'S FIRST FEMALE GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE) ¶B. SURABAYA 88 (WEAK PARTY LOYALTY LEADS TO RUN-OFF ELECTION) ¶C. SURABAYA 51 (POLITICS IN EAST JAVA'S NU) SURABAYA 00000131 001.2 OF 002 This message is sensitive but unclassified. Please protect accordingly. ¶1. (SBU) Summary: In the November 4 run-off election to select East Java's governor, low turnout and a lack of party discipline saw former Provincial Secretary Soekarwo squeak out a narrow (less than 1%) victory over East Java's first female gubernatorial candidate Khofifah. Although early exit polling unanimously called the election immediately for Khofifah, legally binding manual counts by the provincial election commission (KPUD) officially called the election for Soekarwo a week later. East Java has avoided the sort of post election violence that has marred other recent hard-fought governors' races. Most striking in this race was the clear failure of Indonesia's major national political parties to select viable candidates and get out the vote. Local observers unanimously called this election in Indonesia's second largest province a message to presidential candidates that outreach to voters and focus on issues, rather than traditional party politics, is critical in direct elections. Too Close to Call -------------- ¶2. (SBU) After none of the five original candidates garnered sufficient votes during the July 23 East Java Governor's election, a run-off between the top two tickets --Soekarwo/Syaifullah Yusuf (supported by the National Mandate Party (PAN),Party Democrat (PD),and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS)) and Khofifah Indar Parawansa/Mudjiono (supported by the United Development Party (PPP),the Patriot Party, and a coalition of smaller parties) -- was held on November 4. Early election-day exit polls suggested victory for Khofifah by less than 1% of the vote, well within the "quick counts" margin of error. However, after a manual count of the votes, the KPU called the election for Soekarwo, by a margin of 0.4% or just 60,233 votes (50.20% to 49.80%). Observers credit unanimity among conservative NU voters on the island of Madura for Soekarwo's victory. ¶3. (SBU) Neither candidate generated much enthusiasm amongst the electorate before the run-off and the KPU's disorganization helped depress turnout. Many voters in Surabaya and Sidoarjo, for example, received their voter registration cards just the night before the run-off. According to the KPU, voter participation was only 54.32%, down from 61% during July's regular election. Major party endorsements did not seem to help either candidate in the run-off. Most supporters of first-round losing candidates stayed home on November 4, according to data compiled by Indonesia's Survey Research Institution. Alleging voter fraud in Madura, Khofifah has pledged to challenge the official results by filing a law suit with the Constitutional Court and the United Nations. Influence of Gender and Kiai -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Gender appears to have helped as well as hurt the first female gubernatorial candidate in East Java. The Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) noted that women chose Khofifah in large numbers. However, Soekarwo benefited from the reluctance of influential NU clerics, "Kiai", in the "Horse Shoe" regions ringing the Madura Sea to support a female candidate. It also didn't hurt that Soekarwo's running mate has the "royal blood" of NU, as the grandson of one of the NU's founding fathers and nephew of former President Gus Dur. With this patrimony, Soekarwo and Syaifullah Yusuf successfully overcame NU National Chairman Hasyim Muzadi's instruction to NU members to support Khofifah, head of the NU women's division. Furthermore, PKS's decision to endorse Soekarwo was in part motivated by devout Muslim PKS rank and file unwilling to support a female candidate, according to a local party leader's press interview. What Happened to The Party Machines? -------------- -------------- ¶5. (SBU) With their candidates defeated in the first round, the major parties were left flat-footed in choosing a candidate to endorse in the runoff. Indonesia Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) Chairman Megawati's endorsement of Khofifah in the run-off pulled some votes away from Soekarwo. Khofifah garnered votes in the "Arek" and the "Mataram" areas of East Java, PDI-P SURABAYA 00000131 002.2 OF 002 strongholds, suggesting PDI-P was successful in getting out the vote, at least in some areas. Local observers told ConGen Surabaya that Megawati's instructions were followed by 100% of executive board members in East Java's regencies and cities, even if PDI-P voters did not necessarily vote as directed. Soekarwo received run-off endorsements from both the National Awakening Party (PKB) and Golkar, but in a repeat of the July election, neither party seemed able to deliver its voters to the polling stations in the face of internal party struggles. The Outlook for 2009 Presidential Election -------------- -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Local political observers agreed that the election result would bolster President Yudhoyono's confidence about the ability of his small Democratic Party to compete with the political machines of large parties, such as PDI-P and Golkar. However, they argued the real message of this election was that voters were influenced more by issues and personal appeal than by political parties. The low turnout indicates that voters were uninspired by the candidates on the ballot and unwilling to vote simply based on a party leader's instructions. Neither candidate offered firm policy proposals, such as how to resolve the Sidoarjo mudflow crisis or address growing malnutrition rates, preferring instead to lobby religious leaders and others through gifts of cars and donations of food packages to poor communities. In response, almost half of East Java's electorate decided there was no reason to vote. How presidential candidates are able to reach these undecided/uninspired voters may be the key to success in 2009. MCCLELLAND