SURABAYA B1/B2 VISA VALIDATION STUDY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SURABAYA 000103 SIPDIS DEPT FOR CA/FPP, CA/EX, EAP/MTS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: CVIS CMGT KFRD ID SUBJECT: SURABAYA B1/B2 VISA VALIDATION STUDY REF: A: 07 SURABAYA 0009, B: 08 JAKARTA 1192 ¶1. Summary: The Consular Section of the U.S. Consulate General in Surabaya recently conducted a validation study of B1/B2 visa issuances for the six month period between December 1, 2006 and May 31, 2007. The study results were primarily based on queries of Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Arrival-Departure Information System (ADIS) and Automated Targeting System (ATS) records. Phone calls were also made to the residential and business numbers of each of the individuals included in the study. Based on the results, there was a five (5) percent overstay rate. Sixteen percent of visa recipients had not yet utilized their visas at the time the validation study was conducted. End Summary. Methodology -------------- ¶2. The validation study was restricted to B1/B2 visas issued to Indonesian applicants and did not include third country nationals. The sample was selected from issuances during the six-month period from December 1, 2006, to May 31, 2007. Therefore, those individuals who planned to travel within six months of visa issuance should have returned to Indonesia before electronic departure records were reviewed in July 2008. There were a total of 2,314 B1/B2 visas issued during the study period. Although the sample size was not 800 as suggested in CA/FPP instructions, the validation study sample was compiled based on the instructions contained in the CA/FPP document, "How to use the CCD Reports and Excel Spreadsheet to General Random Samples of Visa Applicants for Use in a Validation Study." A total of 584 visa issuances were included in the sample, providing a confidence level of 95 percent and a confidence interval of +/- 2.1 based on a projected overstay rate of 10 percent. ¶3. Either the Consular Consolidated Database (CCD) records or the Non-Immigrant Visa Application forms of all visa recipients included in the sample were reviewed by consular staff. The Office of Fraud Prevention Programs in the Bureau of Consular Affairs (CA/FPP) reviewed DHS Arrival-Departure Information System (ADIS) and Automated Targeting System (ATS) records for all visa recipients included in the study. Consular Section staff also divided the issuance records and made phone calls to the residential and business numbers included on the visa application forms. DHS records were very valuable in conducting the validation study and, in most cases, either ADIS or ATS were able to provide the necessary records to confirm arrival and departure. In a few cases, phone calls were successful in confirming a visa holder's return to Indonesia when no ADIS or ATS departure records were available. Additionally, there were several inconclusive cases in which no departure records existed and phone calls were also unsuccessful in confirming the whereabouts of the visa holders, cases which were counted as confirmed non-returns by post. Results -------------- ¶4. Table of Findings: Confirmed Overstay: 5 percent (29 total) Confirmed Return: 79 percent (462 total) Never Traveled: 16 percent (93 total) Total Sample: 100 percent (584 total) Analysis -------------- ¶5. The validation study results demonstrated an overstay rate of five (5) percent. Sixteen (16) percent were determined to have never used their U.S. visas. Among the confirmed overstays, 50 percent were female and 50 percent were male. Additionally, 50 percent of overstays were single, 39 percent were married, and 11 percent were either widowed or divorced. The most prominent age group among those confirmed as overstays were those more than 50 years of age, accounting for 41 percent of overstays; nine of whom were married and three of whom were either divorced or widowed. Approximately 42 percent of those over the age of 50 who overstayed their visas reported having at least one child in the United States. The next most significant age group for overstays was those age 20 to 29. This group accounted for 38 percent of overstays and were all single. Among the total of 29 overstays, 21 percent had previously traveled to the United States compared to 34 percent of the total sample. Comparison with Past Validation Study -------------- -------------- ¶6. The previous validation study (Ref A),which was conducted in 2007, sampled B1/B2 visas issued during the six month period from December 1, 2005, to May 31, 2006. That validation study used a sample size of 176 issuances and relied primarily on phone calls to verify returns. Based on the 2007 validation SURABAYA 00000103 002 OF 002 study, there was a 6.8 percent confirmed overstay rate. The current 2008 validation study, which covered the six month period from December 1, 2006, to May 31, 2007, and demonstrated a confirmed overstay rate of five (5) percent, is considered to be a more accurate study due to the use of a larger sample size and reliance on DHS arrival and departure records as well as phone calls. The adjusted refusal rate B1/B2 visas adjudicated in Surabaya during the most recent validation study period was 42 percent compared to an adjusted refusal rate of 36 percent during the previous validation study period. Conclusion -------------- ¶7. Post believes the results of the latest B1/B2 validation study and the confirmed overstay rate of five (5) percent indicate that adjudication standards are generally appropriate. The confirmed overstay rate was slightly better than the target in the 2010 Mission Strategic Plan of six (6) percent for 2008. The study demonstrated, however, that applicants over the age of 50 as well as single applicants between the age of 20 and 29 may deserve closer scrutiny. Lastly, Post would like to thank Jakarta Consular Officer Pablo Valdez for his help in setting up the validation study and generating the random sample used for the study. MCCLELLAND