Swedish Environment Minister on Prospects for Poznan/COP-14

UNCLAS STOCKHOLM 000786 E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: SENV ENRG KGHG SW SUBJECT: Swedish Environment Minister on Prospects for Poznan/COP-14 and Beyond ¶1. (U) Summary. At a November 20 lunch hosted by Ambassador Wood for Swedish Environment Minister Andreas Carlgren, the two agreed that the focus of COP-14 next month should be to establish an ambitious work program for 2009, rather than attempting to reach consensus on any future carbon emissions reduction figures. In a relaxed and wide-ranging conversation, the Ambassador and the Minister discussed the status of the upcoming COP-14/Poznan and COP-15/Copenhagen international climate change talks, whether France would be able to pass the EU Climate Change and Energy Package during its EU Presidency, and Carlgren's views on the climate talks' working group chairs. Carlgren also stressed the Swedish desire to continue our One Big Thing partnership. End Summary. ¶2. (U) On November 20, Carlgren came to the Ambassador's residence for lunch, accompanied by Environment State Secretary Asa-Britt Karlsson; Climate Ambassador Staffan Tillander; and Chief of Staff Tomas Uddin. ¶3. (U) On prospects for COP-14, Carlgren said that when the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action (AWG-LCA) meets for its fourth session in conjunction with Poznan, he anticipates that its current Vice Chair, Michael Zammit Cutajar (Malta),will be named Chair. Carlgren commented that Zammit Cutajar is considered to be much more collegial and constructive than the current Chair, Luiz Figueiredo Machado (Brazil). Carlgren added that a new Chair of the Ad Hoc Working Group under the Kyoto Protocol is also expected to be named at Poznan, replacing current Chair Harald Dovland (Norway). Carlgren's Climate Ambassador Staffan Tillander said that Dovland's replacement, whose name has not yet been made public, is an individual who is widely expected to work well with Zammit Cutajar, the new AWG-LCA chair. Carlgren concluded that once these leadership changes are in place, the two new Chairs "will need to be given a mandate to present a work plan for 2009." ¶4. (U) Carlgren commented that "Poznan is not the time for numerical debate on 2020 targets." Sweden's main strategy for Poznan is "for the EU to be non-confrontational with the U.S." and to emerge from these international climate change negotiations in mid-December with "an ambitious work program for 2009, so that negotiations can begin as soon as possible and culminate in COP-15 in Copenhagen in December 2009." Carlgren added that Poznan should be viewed by all parties "as a working group effort towards understanding each country's individual position and establishing an international agreement at COP-15." According to Carlgren, this would also be a more consistent approach, given the interim nature of the current U.S. Administration and potential future progress on cap-and-trade issues in Congress. The Ambassador stated that such views closely mirrored those of Under Secretary of State for Global Affairs Paula Dobriansky, who will lead the U.S. delegation in Poznan. ¶5. (U) Carlgren stressed the need for lesser-developed countries to feel trust in the U.S. He added that the substantial U.S. contribution to the World Bank-administered Clean Tech Fund gives the U.S. credibility with LDCs. Carlgren added that the U.S. -- both at Poznan and with the new Obama Administration -- must show some action on climate change lest developing nations use American reticence as an excuse to avoid making their own commitments. The Ambassador thanked Carlgren for the Swedish government's recent announcement of a $100 million contribution to the CTF, commenting that this demonstrates Sweden's strong leadership on climate change issues. ¶6. (U) Carlgren elaborated on the role Sweden can play in getting China to commit to future post-2012 international agreement. He was clearly proud that Vice Chairman Xie, the Chinese Vice Minister and Chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, who is very active on the climate issue, who is very active on the climate issue, will visit Sweden December 7-8, 2008 en route to Poznan. The Chinese are well-aware of their need to reduce emissions for 2050 targets, as well as of how difficult this will be for their economy, per Carlgren. He compared China with the U.S., saying that "in both countries, once you make an international commitment, you stand by it. Here in Europe, we often sign agreements, but don't fully enforce them. In China and the U.S., reaching agreement might take a long time, but once they get there, you can count on them." ¶7. (U) Minister Carlgren suggested that there was a "trust" issue when it came to U.S. ratification of climate change treaties, based on the Kyoto Protocol, which the U.S. signed under the Clinton Administration but never sent to the Senate for ratification. Carlgren also gave the example of the Montreal Protocol as a potential model for "a post-2012 climate change deal, because Montreal involved a framework agreement followed by more technical arrangements." He stated that the outcome of COP-15 may be a framework for continued progress, with countries able to add to the treaty. The Minister said that the type of cap-and-trade system selected in the U.S. would have a significant impact on the tone of discussion at COP-15, adding that any proactive U.S. efforts in this area would be seen positively throughout the world, especially by the Chinese, "who will be waiting to see the U.S. stance prior to any movement on their own position." ¶8. (U) Minister Carlgren noted that the EU Prime Ministers will hold parallel European Council meetings December 11-12 during COP-14, and that this should positively impact the outcome at Poznan. The Minister praised the Ambassador's 'One Big Thing' alternative energy initiative, stating, "It is so important to continue to develop what we started here during your tenure." Minister Carlgren urged continued contact between the next Administration in Washington, the U.S. Embassy in Stockholm, and his Ministry on the full range of climate change issues. WOOD