SWEDISH MFA ON IRAN, SYRIA AND IRAQ

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000764

SIPDIS

FOR ISN-JENNIFER CHALMERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2018
TAGS: PARM PREL EFIN KNNP IR IZ SY SW
SUBJECT: SWEDISH MFA ON IRAN, SYRIA AND IRAQ

REF: A. STATE 115523

B. STATE 115017

C. STOCKHOLM 717

D. STOCKHOLM 695

Classified By: Acting Deputy Chief of Mission Olivia Hilton for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (S) Summary: Robert Rydberg, Deputy Director-General and
Head of the Department of Middle East and North Africa at the
Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs (MFA),told Emboffs that:

-- Sweden is fully committed to tightening any loopholes and
implementing all UN sanctions on Iran. He added that the USG
view of Sweden's opposition to autonomous EU sanctions might
be based on what other countries have said about Sweden.

--Sweden has "expressed concern that EU sanctions not
directly related to preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear
technology might be counterproductive."

--Sweden's concern about levying a "cluster of additional
sanctions" is not based on Swedish economic interests in
Iran.

--If the USG can identify and show Sweden specific instances
of nuclear and missile-related technology transactions,
"Sweden's skepticism would decrease."

--Swedish diplomats report that the Syrians are serious about
negotiations with the Israelis; Swedish diplomats also report
that an additional round of discussions in Turkey is likely
prior to the Israeli elections.

--Sweden plans to open an office in Erbil in the future.

End Summary.


2. (S) On November 7, Political Counselor and Acting Economic
Counselor shared Reftel A and B points with Robert Rydberg,
Deputy Director-General and Head of the Department of Middle
East and North Africa at the Swedish Ministry for Foreign
Affairs (MFA). Rydberg commented that Sweden welcomed an
exchange of views with the USG on enhanced scrutiny over the
activities of Swedish financial institutions in their
transactions with Iran. He noted that he would need to confer
with colleagues before he could provide the full legal and
logistical process for passing on Financial Action Task Force
(FATF) warnings on UNSCR 1803. Rydberg promised to provide
post with Sweden's official position once the consultations
have been completed.

Uncomfortable Discussing Iran?
--------------


3. (S) Rydberg stated Sweden is fully committed to tightening
any loopholes and implementing all UN sanctions. He
commented that a group of like-minded nations is currently
discussing the possibility of levying additional EU
sanctions, and that the USG view of Sweden's opposition to
additional sanctions might be based on what other countries
have said about Sweden. Note: From this point onward, the
usually open and friendly Rydberg became noticeably tense,
shifting in his seat and crossing his arms. End Note.

Not Opposed to the Will of the (Overwhelming) Majority
-------------- --------------


4. (S) Rydberg stated with great care and precision that it
was "incorrect to say that Sweden is blocking or creating
obstacles to a decision that an overwhelming majority of EU
member states wants to make." He said the discussions are at
a "difficult stage" and some in the EU are still "exploring
possible options." Rydberg commented that Sweden has
"expressed concern that EU sanctions not directly related to
preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear technology might be
counterproductive." Sanctions that impact ordinary economic
activities "would allow Iranian hardliners to blame the West
for Iran's own economic shortcomings."

Just Need Smarter Sticks and Carrots
--------------


5. (S) Sweden is very concerned about Iran's attempts to
acquire nuclear technology and shares the U.S. analysis that

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Iran has not been forthcoming and open in its dealings with
the West, continued Rydberg. He noted that Sweden also
shares the U.S. analysis that Iran is pursuing a nuclear
weapons program and that it has made progress. Rydberg
opined that Iran could acquire nuclear weapons in a "short
time frame" and that "time is therefore of the essence."
Therefore, the West needs to strengthen both its "sticks and
carrots" in an intelligent manner to achieve the desired
effects and not be counterproductive to its goals. Asked
whether Sweden had ideas on how to strengthen these sticks
and carrots, Rydberg demurred, saying that the EU and the
U.S. had the lead.

Trade Is Not/Not the Issue
--------------


6. (S) Without being asked, Rydberg assured Emboffs that
Sweden's concern about levying a "cluster of additional
sanctions" is not based on Swedish economic interests in
Iran. "Swedish trade with Iran is going down," and Swedish
companies are losing contracts to companies from other
countries, including the U.S., Rydberg opined. Note: Swedish
trade with Iran is up by 30 percent in the first six months
of 2008 over the corresponding period in 2007. The Swedish
Export Credits Guarantee board 2007 Annual Report said there
has been a "greater demand for deliveries to the Middle East,
above all to Iran" (Ref C). End Note.

Just Unsure Sanctions Ever Work (What is "Nuclear" Anyway?)
-------------- --------------


7. (S) Rydberg stated that "sanctions are not a panacea and
do not produce short-term results," adding that they can take
years to be effective. When Emboffs replied that in the
short term, sanctions can effectively slow down Iran's
nuclear and missile program, Rydberg replied that "Sweden
would like to see an extensive definition of what constitutes
a nuclear and missile-related technology transaction. If the
USG can identify and show us specific instances of these
transactions, that would convince us and Sweden's skepticism
would decrease."

Syria-Lebanon: "A Positive Development"
--------------


8. (S) Rydberg also commented that Syria's establishing
diplomatic relations with Lebanon was "a positive
development." He stated that Swedish diplomats report that
the Syrians are serious about negotiations with the Israelis;
Swedish diplomats also report that an additional round of
discussions in Turkey is likely prior to the Israeli
elections. Rydberg noted that Sweden believes the Syrians
are waiting for the new U.S. administration before making any
significant moves.

Iraq Issues
--------------


9. (S) Rydberg thanked the USG for providing quick and
comprehensive information regarding the October death of
Mohammed Moumou, a naturalized Swedish citizen of Moroccan
origin, in a raid on an Al-Qaeda hideout in northern Iraq.
He also mentioned that once Sweden has opened its embassy in
Baghdad, Sweden will open some type of "representative
office" in Erbil.

Comment
--------------


10. (S) Redbird's obvious discomfort with questions involving
additional sanctions on Iran matches the behavior of our
other interlocutors in recent weeks. Sweden's current trade
with Iran, though increasing, is so low that we doubt it
plays the determining role in thinking about sanctions. The
issue of principle that all sanctions need a UN imprimatur is
also less than absolute; Sweden supports EU autonomous
sanctions when it wants to, such as on Burma. At this point,
and absent any other explanation, Sweden's obstinance on Iran
seems best explained by the assertion by Urban Ahlin, Vice
Chairman of the Parliamentary Foreign Committee that Foreign
Minister Bildt may be trying to "solve Iran" (Ref D).
WOOD