SWEDEN LIKELY TO UP ISAF TROOPS BY 100; BILL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000752

SIPDIS

EUR FOR NB

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/07/2018
TAGS: EAID MCAP MOPS PGOV PREL AF SW
SUBJECT: SWEDEN LIKELY TO UP ISAF TROOPS BY 100; BILL
DELAYED UNTIL MID-NOVEMBER;

Classified By: A/DCM Marc Koehler for reasons 1.4 (B) & (D).


1. (C) Summary: Sweden has once again delayed the submission
of its ISAF authorization bill to Parliament to November
17-19, citing "differences in interpretation of the wording"
as the main problem. Sweden is discussing raising the number
of troops in Afghanistan from 375 to around 500, by sending a
C-130, medevac helicopters, support crews, and additional
maneuver elements. Sweden has earmarked 15-20 percent of its
$60 million in aid (2007) for the four northern provinces,
but admitted that locals in the North were seeing very little
of this due to bottlenecks in Kabul. Sweden would like to
increase the number of civilian advisors to improve
development in the North. End Summary.

SECURITY SITUATION
--------------


2. (C) On November 4, MOD civilian staff, including Deputy
Director Johanna Gardmark and Desk Officers Victoria Hjort
and Cecilia Helander, and LTCOL Claes Bitterlich briefed
Emboffs on Sweden's civilian and military commitment to
Afghanistan. Helander stated that security has deteriorated
somewhat in the North, but that the situation was "stable."
She cited criminal activities, ethnic disputes, corruption,
drug smuggling, local power-brokers, opposition to the
central government, and an insurgent attack on two NGO
personnel in Mazar-e-Sharif in February as the major
challenges.

ISAF AUTHORIZATION BILL DELAYED (AGAIN)
--------------


3. (C) Hjort informed us that the draft ISAF extension bill,
originally scheduled to have been submitted to Parliament in
October and then rescheduled to early November, has been
delayed yet again. She cited interdepartmental "differences
in interpreting the wording" of the draft text as the primary
delay, but could not give us a date for submission.
Separately, MFA officials offered that the bill could be
submitted November 17-19. The existing authorization expires
December 20. Separately, MFA contacts told POL Counselor
that the differences are now being discussed between the
state secretaries (i.e., deputies) in the MFA and Defense
Ministry and relate to the specific number of civilian
advisors and military maneuver elements to be authorized.
Despite the delay, Helander commented that Sweden has
contributed to ISAF since 2001 and emphasized that Sweden has
a "long-term" commitment to Afghanistan.


4. (C) As regards the proposed new bill, Helander said Sweden
is discussing increasing the authorized troop ceiling,
currently 600, and press reports cite military sources as
indicating that the new bill might include language
authorizing up to 800 troops. But these figures represent
permitted upper limits, allowing the Swedes to "surge" troops
to Afghanistan in the event of an "emergency," according to
MOD and MFA contacts. The actual number of troops on the
ground now is roughly 375, and the actual troop increase
being considered is roughly 100, to operate a C-130, medevac
helicopters, and possibly additional maneuver elements to
supplement the one-rifle brigade currently deployed. Of the
above, only the C-130 would not have "geographical caveats"
and be authorized to operate nationwide. Helander noted that
Sweden also wants to provide more military mentors to support
OMLTs working with the Afghan National Army (ANA); there is
apparently some discussion about geographical caveats for
these troops, though MOD and MFA are urging that they be
allowed to operate wherever their ANA trainees go.

CIVILIAN-MILITARY COOPERATION
--------------


5. (C) Hjort stated that the military-civilian cooperation
works smoothly in the field, but is "hampered" by bureaucracy
in Sweden. She cited the lack of a "comprehensive strategy"
as a problem for Sweden. Hjort told us Sweden has
established an "inter-agency" group consisting of the
Ministry of Justice, MFA, MOD, SIDA, desk officers, Swedish
Armed Forces and the Swedish Rescue Service to be led by the
MFA. She opined that the new group would meet weekly to
ensure that "everyone is on the same page" and be able to

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make quick decisions without needing Parliamentary approval.


6. (C) Hjort confirmed that Sweden has earmarked 15-20
percent of its $60 million in aid (2007) for the four
northern provinces, but admitted that locals in the North
were seeing very little of this. She stated that the Swedish
Embassy and SIDA are examining why the funds are being held
up in Kabul. Hjort opined that Sweden would like to send
more civilian advisors to the North to improve development,
adding that this would require greater logistical support on
the ground.


7. (C) Comment: SIDA's reported refusal to work with or near
Swedish troops in the North presents a problem. Without
adequate protection, civilian development advisors may find
it difficult to travel in some of the more isolated and
dangerous areas of the four provinces. Sweden,s Alliance
government and most opposition parties say they support
Sweden's long-term commitment to Afghanistan, but should
security continue to deteriorate and Swedish casualties (only
two to date) increase, public support might plunge. End
Comment.

BACKGROUND
--------------


8. (SBU) In 2006, Sweden became the lead nation for the
Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) headquartered in
Mazar-e-Sharif that is responsible for the provinces of
Balkh, Samangan, Jowzjan, and Sar-e-Pul. The PRT has a total
of 500 people in Afghanistan, which includes roughly 370
Swedish and nearly 100 Finnish troops, and two civilian
advisors (one political and one development). Military
forces are based at Camp Northern Lights in Mazar-e-Sharif
(MAZAR),a Norwegian field hospital, Military Observer Teams
(MOTs) in Samangan, Jowzjan, and Sar-e-Pul provinces, and a
National Intelligence Cell in Kabul. Sweden also provides
soldiers to two OMLTS based out of Camp Mike Spann, about 12
kilometers from Mazar-e-Sharif.
WOOD