SWEDEN LIKELY TO UP ISAF TROOPS BUT BILL DELAYED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000751

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/07/2018
TAGS: EAID MCAP MOPS PGOV PREL AF SW
SUBJECT: SWEDEN LIKELY TO UP ISAF TROOPS BUT BILL DELAYED
UNTIL MID-NOVEMBER

Classified By: A/DCM Marc Koehler for reasons 1.4 (B) & (D).


1. (C) Summary: Sweden has once again delayed the submission
of its ISAF authorization bill to Parliament to November
17-19, citing "differences in interpretation of the wording"
as the main problem. Sweden is discussing raising the number
of troops in Afghanistan from 375 to around 500, by sending a
C-130, medevac helicopters, support crews, and additional
maneuver elements. Sweden has earmarked 15-20 percent of its
$60 million in aid (2007) for the four northern provinces,
but admitted that locals in the North were seeing very little
of this due to bottlenecks in Kabul. Sweden would like to
increase the number of civilian advisors to improve
development in the North. End Summary.

SECURITY SITUATION
--------------


2. (C) On November 4, MOD civilian staff, including Deputy
Director Johanna Gardmark and Desk Officers Victoria Hjort
and Cecilia Helander, and LTCOL Claes Bitterlich of the J5,
briefed Emboffs on Sweden's civilian and military commitment
to Afghanistan. Helander stated that security has
deteriorated somewhat in the North, but that the situation
was "stable." She cited criminal activities, ethnic
disputes, corruption, drug smuggling, local power-brokers,
opposition to the central government, and an insurgent attack
on two NGO personnel in Mazar-e-Sharif in February as the
major challenges.

ISAF AUTHORIZATION BILL DELAYED (AGAIN)
--------------


3. (C) Hjort informed us that the draft ISAF extension bill,
originally scheduled to have been submitted to Parliament in
October and then rescheduled to early November, has been
delayed yet again. She cited interdepartmental "differences
in interpreting the wording" of the draft text as the primary
delay, but could not give us a date for submission.
Separately, MFA officials offered that the bill could be
submitted November 17-19. The existing authorization expires
December 20. MFA contacts told POL Counselor that the
differences are now being discussed between the state
secretaries (i.e., deputies) in the MFA and Defense Ministry
and relate to the specific number of civilian advisors and
military maneuver elements to be authorized. Despite the
delay, Helander commented that Sweden has contributed to ISAF
since 2001 and emphasized that Sweden has a "long-term"
commitment to Afghanistan.


4. (C) As regards the proposed new bill, Helander said Sweden
is discussing increasing the authorized troop ceiling,
currently 600, and press reports cite military sources as
indicating that the new bill might include language
authorizing up to 800 troops. But these figures represent
permitted upper limits, allowing the Swedes to "surge" troops
to Afghanistan in the event of an "emergency," according to
MOD and MFA contacts. The actual number of troops on the
ground now is roughly 375, and the actual troop increase
being considered is roughly 100, to operate a C-130, medevac
helicopters, and possibly additional maneuver elements to
supplement the one rifle brigade currently deployed. Of the
above, probably only the C-130 would not have "geographical
caveats" and be authorized to operate nationwide. Helander
noted that Sweden also wants to provide more military mentors
to support OMLTs working with the Afghan National Army (ANA);
there is apparently some discussion about geographical
caveats for these troops, though MOD and MFA are urging that
they be allowed to operate wherever their ANA trainees go.

CIVIL-MILITARY COOPERATION HAMPERED BY BUREAUCRATS
-------------- --------------


5. (C) Hjort stated that the military-civilian cooperation
works smoothly in the field, but is "hampered" by bureaucracy
in Sweden. She cited the lack of a "comprehensive strategy"
as a problem for Sweden. Hjort told us Sweden has
established an MFA-led "inter-agency" group consisting of the
Ministry of Justice, MOD, Swedish International Development
Agency (SIDA),Swedish Armed Forces and the Swedish Rescue
Service. She opined that the new group would meet weekly to
ensure that "everyone is on the same page" and able to make
quick decisions without needing Parliamentary approval.


6. (C) Hjort confirmed that Sweden has earmarked 15-20
percent of its $60 million in aid (2007) for the four

STOCKHOLM 00000751 002 OF 002


northern provinces, but admitted that locals in the North
were seeing very little of this. She stated that the Swedish
Embassy and SIDA are examining why the funds are being held
up in Kabul. Hjort opined that Sweden would like to send
more civilian advisors to the North to improve development,
adding that this would require greater logistical and
security support on the ground.


7. (C) Comment: SIDA's reported refusal to work with or near
Swedish troops in the North presents a problem. Without
adequate protection, civilian development advisors may find
it difficult to travel in some of the more isolated and
dangerous areas of the four provinces. Sweden's Alliance
government and most opposition parties say they support a
long-term commitment to Afghanistan, but should security
continue to deteriorate and Swedish casualties (only two to
date) increase, they worry that public support might plunge.
End Comment.

BACKGROUND
--------------


8. (SBU) In 2006, Sweden became the lead nation for the
Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) headquartered in
Mazar-e-Sharif that is responsible for the provinces of
Balkh, Samangan, Jowzjan, and Sar-e-Pul. The PRT has a total
of 500 people in Afghanistan, which includes roughly 370
Swedish and nearly 100 Finnish troops, and two civilian
advisors (one political and one development). Military
forces are based at Camp Northern Lights in Mazar-e-Sharif, a
Norwegian field hospital, Military Observer Teams (MOTs) in
Samangan, Jowzjan, and Sar-e-Pul provinces, and a National
Intelligence Cell in Kabul. Sweden also provides soldiers to
two OMLTs based out of Camp Mike Spann, about 12 kilometers
from Mazar-e-Sharif.
WOOD