GUIDANCE FOR JUNE 13 UNSC MIDYEAR REVIEW OF MNF-I

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 STATE 063759 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL MOPS UNSC IZ SUBJECT: GUIDANCE FOR JUNE 13 UNSC MIDYEAR REVIEW OF MNF-I ¶1. USUN is instructed to draw from the following text in its statement at the June 13 UNSC midyear review of MNF-I. ¶2. Begin text: I am pleased to report to the U.N. Security Council on behalf of the Multi-National Force-Iraq(MNF-I). I would like to welcome Foreign Minister Zebari and am grateful for his participation here today. I would also like to thank Special Representative Staffan de Mistura and the staff of UNAMI for their dedication and hard work. ¶3. The security environment in Iraq continues to improve and all major violence indicators are markedly lower compared to pre-surge levels. While this progress is encouraging, challenges still remain and for many Iraqi families, the effects and threats of continued violence continue to be a daily concern. ¶4. The Iraqi Security Forces and MNF-I have made hard-fought security gains. Today, the Government and the people of Iraq are working hard to build-upon those gains in their efforts to achieve a secure, unified, and democratic Iraq that can govern, defend and sustain itself. ¶5. Today I would like to outline five points on behalf of MNF-I. ¶6. First -- over the last three months, there has been a significant increase in Iraqi-led operations. ¶7. In March 2008, the Iraqi Government launched Operation Saulat al-Fursan (Note: Arabic for Operation "Charge of the Knights." End note.) to restore law and order in Basra. In April and May 2008, the GoI planned and executed similar operations in Sadr City and Mosul. Violence levels temporarily increased during these actions, but despite this spike of activity, total security incidents have now fallen to their lowest level in over four years. ¶8. These operations demonstrated the growing capability and confidence of Iraqi Security Forces, enabled them and Coalition forces to seize the initiative from extremists, and helped to free major population centers from militias and criminal gangs. ¶9. Iraqi and Coalition forces achieved these security gains even as Coalition forces continued to draw down from surge levels. By the end of May 2008, three U.S. Brigade Combat Teams, two U.S. Marine battalions and a Marine Expeditionary Unit had left Iraq without replacement. Additionally, Australia withdrew its forces from Dhi Qar province in early June. ¶10. Second - security incidents and violence continue to decrease. ¶11. The number of civilian deaths due to violence has fallen by 75% since July 2007 and the number of incidents and Coalition deaths caused by Improvised Explosive Devices remains on a consistently low six-month trend. ¶12. Monthly high-profile attacks in Iraq such as car bombs and suicide attacks decreased in May 2008, falling below the previous two-year low reached in December 2007. And high-profile attack explosions for May 2008 are down over 70% from the peak in March 2007. Nonetheless, al Qaeda in Iraq and other extremists still have the intent and the capability of carrying out high-profile atrocities as they did on April 15th when 150 civilians were killed in a series of attacks throughout Iraq. We remain concerned at the presence of foreign fighters in Iraq. The Government of Syria must act to halt the operation of foreign fighter networks within its territory, which continue to supply the overwhelming majority of suicide bombers responsible for the deaths of innocent Iraqis. The Government of Iran must also cease the training, equipping and financing by the Iran Republican Guards Corps-Quds Force of violent Iraqi elements who have challenged the security of Iraq and the authority of the Iraqi government and Security Forces. We call on the Government of Iran to follow through on its pledge to respect the sovereignty of Iraq and the integrity of its borders, which to date it has not done. ¶13. The enemy's use of suicide bombers (including female STATE 00063759 002 OF 003 suicide bombers) remains a threat, especially as population security measures and local opposition to insurgents in some provinces make effective targeting using suicide vehicle-borne IEDs more difficult. The number of person-borne IED incidents increased from October 2007 to February 2008, before declining in March and April 2008. ¶14. The number of deaths due to ethno-sectarian violence is now at the lowest level in the past several years, illustrating the enemy's inability to re-ignite the cycle of ethno-sectarian violence. During the last two weeks of May 2008, there were no confirmed ethno-sectarian deaths in Baghdad. In April and May 2008, there were 17 and 11 deaths, respectively, in the Baghdad Security Districts. This is a remarkable improvement when compared to the over 1,600 ethno-sectarian deaths in December 2006. ¶15. Third - more than 30 countries currently play a critical role in enhancing security in Iraq, whether by participating as a Coalition member, supporting the NATO Training Mission, or contributing to UNAMI operations. ¶16. Coalition members other than the United States contribute some 10,000 forces to the Coalition, and another 450 personnel to support UNAMI. Every contributor, large and small, from the British in the southeast to the Italian Carabinieri police trainers providing paramilitary expertise to the Iraqi National Police, from the Mongolians who are providing camp security to the Georgians whose many missions include protecting UNAMI staff members - each plays a vital role in enabling the Government of Iraq to assume full responsibility for the defense and security of its people. ¶17. Fourth - Iraqi Security Forces continue to make significant progress and develop increased capability and proficiency. ¶18. More than 559,000 personnel now serve in the Iraqi Security Forces -- an increase of over 19,000 personnel since I last reported to you in April. As of May 1, 2008, 147 Iraqi Army combat battalions are conducting operations - an increase of 24 combat battalions since my last report. Another eight battalions are currently in force generation, and MNF-I plans an additional 14 for force generation in 2008. Four Special Operations battalions are capable of conducting operations with minimal Coalition support and another two are in force generation. ¶19. Among the formed Iraqi Army combat battalions, 65% are rated as not only being able to take the lead in operations, but also being able to plan, execute and sustain operations with minimal or no assistance from Coalition forces. Since March 2008, nine additional battalions have improved their proficiency and can now conduct counterinsurgency operations with Coalition support. ¶20. Both the Iraqi Air Force and the Iraqi Navy are gaining proficiency as well. Over the past nine months, the Iraqi Air Force sortie rate has increased by almost 750%, with the Iraqi Air Force flying over 5,000 sorties so far this year. In that same nine-month period, the number of Iraqi Navy patrols has grown by approximately 250% with an average of 35 patrols per week now conducted in Iraqi territorial waters. ¶21. The Iraqi National Police also continues to increase its proficiency. There are now 44 National Police battalions authorized, including the National Emergency Response Unit. And of those, 11 battalions are capable of planning, executing and sustaining operations with Coalition support. ¶22. Fifth - the Coalition continues to transfer responsibility for security to the Government of Iraq. The United States and Iraqi governments are now in the process of negotiating a long-term relationship which will recognize this transition and the increasing ability of Iraqi Security Forces to assume greater responsibility for security and stability. ¶23. Currently, half of Iraq's 18 provinces are under Provincial Iraqi Control (PIC) and security responsibility for Anbar and Qadisiyah Provinces are scheduled to transition to Iraqi control in June and July 2008, respectively. This will bring the total number of provinces for which the GoI has lead security STATE 00063759 003 OF 003 responsibility to 11 of 18 provinces. ¶24. The ability of the Iraqi Security Forces to support and sustain fielded forces is also improving. During recent and ongoing events in Basrah, Mosul and Sadr City, the ISF have demonstrated their capability to conduct simultaneous extensive operations in three parts of the country. Conclusion ¶25. Though the recent improvements in the security situation across Iraq are significant, the Iraqi Government, MNF-I, NATO, the international community, and UNAMI will have to take deliberate measures to sustain these gains. These measures include the development and employment of a sustained, robust security posture; delivery of humanitarian assistance and essential services to all the citizens of Iraq; continued improvement in budget execution that will advance Iraqi responsibility for reconstruction and development; the generation of sustainable employment; and continuing progress on political reconciliation. Free and fair provincial elections will also be important in facilitating reconciliation and the formation of representative provincial governments. We look forward to these elections taking place later this year. Together, we can help Iraq achieve success. End text. RICE