E-PINE POLITICAL DIRECTORS, APRIL 30TH MEETING IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 056861

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2018
TAGS: KNEI PREL EUR BO GG PL RS UP XZ ZB SW NO LG LH IC
EN, FI, DA
SUBJECT: E-PINE POLITICAL DIRECTORS, APRIL 30TH MEETING IN
WASHINGTON, DC

Classified By: Classified by: Daniel Fried, Assistant Secretary, EUR,
Department of State. Reason 1.4.(b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. Senior U.S., Nordic, and Baltic officials met in
Washington D.C. on April 30th for the eleventh Enhanced Partnership in
Northern Europe (e-PINE) Political Directors' meeting. They agreed:
that MAP for Georgia and Ukraine in December is desirable, but may be
problematic; that the current situation in Georgia is cause for concern;
that an orderly transition in Kosovo is needed; and that Belarus should
be confronted with a unified message. PolDirs agreed that Moldova should
not be forced into neutrality and were hopeful that a 5 2 meeting could
occur in the near future. They also discussed Afghanistan (to which all
e-PINE countries contribute either personnel or aid),Cuba, Iraq, and the
Middle East. Lithuania offered to host the next e-PINE Political
Directors' meeting in Vilnius. End Summary.

e-PINE: Political Directors' Meetings in Washington D.C.
-------------- --------------


2. (C) Political Directors from the eight Nordic and Baltic countries
and the United States met April 30th at the Department of State to consult
and coordinate policies toward Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus, Russia, Georgia
and Kosovo (see para 23 for participant list). The meeting began with a
working lunch for delegation leaders only, hosted by EUR Acting Assistant
Secretary Kurt Volker and EUR DAS Judy Garber. The subjects of
conversation included Afghanistan, Iraq, and Cuba. SCA DAS Patrick Moon
spoke on Afghanistan and S/I Deputy Chat Blakeman spoke on Iraq.
After lunch, the participants continued their discussions, joined by
Acting Under Secretary Dan Fried, turning to Moldova, Belarus, Ukraine,
Georgia, Russia, Energy, the Middle East, and Kosovo.

Iraq
--------------

3. (C) Swedish PolDir Bjorn Lyrvall said that at the April 30 GAERC, there
was discussion of deliverables for the upcoming International Compact with
Iraq (ICI). The goals will be to improve the EU presence and ensure a legal
basis for EU engagement in Iraq. He hoped that there would be progress on
elections, hopefully set for October, and on the hydrocarbon law. Acting
A/S Volker said that improving European perceptions of the progress in Iraq
would also be an important deliverable. Chat Blakeman noted that
economic progress has been made, with Iraq's meeting most IMF targets.
The UN role in Iraq is now robust; he hoped that the EU would soon follow
suit.

Afghanistan
--------------

4. (C) Norwegian PolDir Vegard Ellefsen called for support for Eide's mission;
there was agreement that he is the right person for the job. SCA DAS Moon
explained that there are three pillars to the U.S. counterinsurgency strategy:
1) military -- separating insurgents and holding the area, including with
the ANA and police; 2) immediate development assistance; and 3) government
services provided by Afghan authorities, which depend on the quality of the
local government. In the east, roads have been key to success, and we have
seen improved security and economic growth. In the south, there have been
deficiencies in strategy -- not enough development assistance, not enough
soldiers to hold, and a need to do better on local government quality.
All agreed that capacity building is central to progress. France's
increased engagement was noted with approval. PolDirs agreed that greater
contributions from and inclusion of Afghans were needed to make the government
and police a success.


5. (C) Estonian PolDir Aivo Orav and Denmark's Liselotte Plesner both
mentioned that there is little public opposition to their countries'
participation in Afghanistan. By contrast, although she said Iceland's
FM is convinced of the need to remain engaged, Icelandic PolDir
Greta Gunnarsdottir confirmed public opposition.

Cuba
--------------

6. (C) AA/S Volker noted that e-PINE countries need to create expectations
for change now that Castro is possibly no longer in power. All e-PINE
countries agree that there is a need for a democratic transition and respect
for human rights. There will be a review of the EU Common Position in June
to determine whether to lift the 2003 Restrictive measures, which were
officially suspended in 2005. Spain will argue there has been enough progress
by Cuba to drop the measures; in exchange, the GOC will agree to engage in
a political dialogue with the EU. Volker noted that the U.S. does not see
much progress, only some small steps. The prospect of dialogue entrances
many in the EU, but they may not reach consensus on dropping the restrictive
measures unless the Cubans take a few more steps on human rights or economic
openness.

Ukraine
--------------

7. (C) Acting Under Secretary Fried led the discussion, which centered on
the NATO summit and the importance of the statement concerning MAP for
Ukraine and Georgia that came out of it. Fried noted that the debate over
MAP for Ukraine goes beyond questions of membership to whether NATO can
embrace Ukraine as part of the concept of "Europe." In Bucharest, NATO
leaders said "not yet" to Ukrainian membership, but did not close the door
to the eventuality. All expressed satisfaction with the Bucharest statement
regarding Georgia and Ukraine.


8. (C) Fried added that, domestically, Ukraine needs to focus on reform,
on privatization, and on energy security. In less than a month Ukraine will
join the WTO. Although the Ukrainians have made good progress in a short
period of time, they need to pull themselves together; this will require a
great deal of work. There was general concern over the state of Ukrainian
domestic politics that may make getting MAP in December difficult. Denmark's
Plesner, Latvia's Peteris Ustubs, Lithuania's Vytautas Leskevicius, and
Norway's Ellefsen noted their support for Ukraine's membership in the EU.
Swedish PolDir Lyrvall was also supportive, but argued for "substance over
speed." All agreed that the chance of a membership perspective at this time
was slim.


9. (C) Fried concluded that there will most likely be heated debate up to
December on MAP. Ukraine also needs to develop more pro-NATO sentiment
internally. He expressed the hope that the EU will keep the door open
for Ukrainian membership until the Ukrainians are ready to join.

Moldova
--------------

10. (C) Latvian PolDir Ustubs explained that, although the domestic
situation is a bit difficult, there have been some positive steps
indicating that a 5 2 meeting (Moldova, Transnistria, Russia, Ukraine,
OSCE plus U.S. and EU as observers) might be possible in the near future.
Moldova is moving down the road towards an enhanced agreement with the EU
and this is a very positive development. Participants disagreed over the
timing of the agreement, with some preferring to wait until after the
elections; however, Lithuania's Leskevicius argued that the agreement should
be made ready by October or November. Sweden's Lyrvall noted that this seemed
to be an unrealistic timetable, but that getting a good agreement out of the
EU was something that everyone could support.


11. (C) Participants noted that Moldova's opposition is internally
conflicted and may need assistance from e-PINE countries to help it
understand the importance of being unified for success in elections.


12. (C) Acting U/S Fried stressed the importance of Moldova's not being
forced into neutrality - this is a choice that it must make for itself
and is no business of Russia's nor that of any other country. Additionally,
he said that e-PINE countries should work with Voronin, who is carving out
a space for Moldovan sovereignty. The mood on both sides of the rivers
seems to be changing, and there is a better chance at present for a 5 2
meeting.

Georgia
--------------

13. (C) Participants agreed that the current situation in Georgia is of
concern. There was general agreement that there ought to be some sort of
investigation of the UAV incident, but less agreement as to who should
investigate and when. Sweden's Lyrvall, among others, thought that an EU
expert team would be most credible, while the Baltic PolDirs argued time
was of the essence and a team should be sent as soon as possible before
any data/debris were lost. There was general concern about Russia's
"peacekeeper" role since recent actions have demonstrated its lack of
neutrality; it is no longer a mediator and has become party to the conflict.
There was a general impression that Russia has been testing the West to see
where the "red lines" are and how much will be tolerated. Vigorous, united
diplomatic resistance is called for, especially from the Germans. Lyrall
asked if there were a way to use CIS countries to pressure Russia on
Georgia. He also stressed the importance of a clear message coming from the
EU, noting that the GAERC meeting at the end of May would offer the
opportunity for a strategic conversation on Georgia.


14. (C) On the domestic front, PolDirs agreed that Georgia needs to make
sure the elections go well and that it does not get a "pass" due to
current problems. It is more important than ever that Georgia run
democratic elections. Acting U/S Fried stressed the importance of a clear
EU position on Georgia, expressing hope that EU members hadn't placed the
issue in the category of "too much trouble." He noted that Germany had its
own frozen conflict (i.e., the division of the country) when it joined
NATO. DAS Bryza noted that the U.S. had worked with the Georgians to try
to get them to moderate their behavior, while at the same time delivering
a clear message to the Russians that their negative actions will have
repercussions.


15. (C) At present, participants said, the "Friends" group is losing
credibility with Georgia by talking about small steps. In order to
re-energize and re-legitimize the group, the Friends should push for a
dual agreement involving a promise on the Georgian side not to use force
and a promise on the Abkhaz side to allow the IDPs to return. It is very
important to get this right so that the Russians don't win a victory
against the 1994 agreement.

Belarus
--------------

16. (C) Finland's Deputy Director General Anu Laamanen said that the
positive developments of the past six months, with the release of a
few political prisoners and the message that (unspecified) observers
will be invited for the elections, appeared to be coming to an end.
The EU had renewed its sanctions for another year. Unity of message
is the key to dealing with Belarus; we should not allow Lukashenka to
drive wedges or it will limit any chances for success. U.S. sanctions
are reversible with good behavior; it is apparent that rewards for small
steps do not work.


17. (C) Acting U/S Fried briefed on the current dispute between the
U.S. and Belarus and what it might mean for the U.S. presence in Minsk
going forward. He noted that U.S. sanctions against Belarus are tied
to its release of political prisoners and to its human rights record.
Unfortunately, instead of making improvements and releasing prisoners,
Belarus has chosen to put pressure on the U.S. Embassy. The U.S. was
reviewing a variety of options regarding its presence in Minsk and
Belarusian presence in the United States. We need to make sure that
Belarus continues to receive the same message from everyone.

Energy
--------------

18. (C) Lithuania's Leskevicius noted that energy is an important
agenda item across the entire EU. Russia continues to use energy as
a geopolitical tool to reward and punish. Political directors were
in general agreement that it is important to develop practical solutions
that are easy to follow through on. The structure of the EU, and the
fact that energy policy remains largely a national issue, create problems
for developing a unified energy strategy. The main goal of energy policy
is to increase competition, not to bring down Gazprom.


19. (C) The progress being made by the Baltic littoral countries was
noted; there was a sense of strategic direction. Norway noted that
Europe could not look to increased product the Shtokman fields in
Russia until the lat part of the next decade. PolDirs suggested that,
in Ukraine, e-PINE needs to work with Gazprom to improve infrastructure,
increase capacity, and cut out middlemen so that supplies of gas to and
through Ukraine are cheaper and more reliable.

Russia
--------------

20. (C) Acting U/S Fried said that the basic strategy of the
U.S. is cooperation where possible and pushback where necessary.
This strategy does not allow Russia to create artificial linkages -
i.e., there will be no cooperation on Iran at the expense of Georgia.
The Russians are difficult partners for the e-PINE countries
generally and they are unlikely to become easier with Russia's
political transition. Swedish participants were in favor of trying
to "build up" Medvedev in an effort to drive a wedge between him and
Putin. The Norwegians stressed the importance of Allied unity.

Kosovo
--------------

21. (C) Estonian PolDir Orav noted the early recognition of
Kosovo by most e-PINE countries. Acting U/S Fried noted that there
are several positive aspects of the transition, namely the behavior
of Kosovo's government and the security situation in much of the
country. However, there are some difficulties in working out the
orderly transition from UNMIK to EULEX, and Serbia's behavior in
the north is worrisome. Sweden's Lyrvall agreed that the transition
needs to be sorted out; while there may be a residual role for
UNMIK, EULEX needs to take on the major role. Estonia's Orav also
thought that if everything goes well in Kosovo, the next area of
difficulty could well be Macedonia, on which NATO unity is
important.


Middle East
--------------

22. (C) U.S. Israel-Palestine Deputy Office Director Nicole
Shampaine said that negotiations between Israel and the
Palestinians on permanent status issues are proceeding in secret,
that we believe progress is being made in these discussions, and
that we continue to hope for an agreement by the end of the year.
Conditions on the ground for the Palestinians are bad, however,
and this undermines both the current Palestinian Authority (PA)
leadership and political efforts to make progress towards an
agreement. The U.S. is urging both parties to implement their
Roadmap obligations, which for the Palestinians means taking
steps against terrorism and for Israel means stopping settlement
expansion and removing unauthorized outposts. We are also
encouraging Israel to reduce obstacles to movement in the West
Bank (while still preserving Israeli security) in order to make
it possible for the Palestinian economy to develop. Shampaine
expressed appreciation to Norway for its leadership of the Ad Hoc
Liaison Committee and to Sweden for its contributions as a donor
nation. In Gaza, conditions are untenable but addressing them is
extremely challenging in light of Hamas' de facto control of the
area. The U.S. is encouraging Israel, Egypt and the PA to work
together to resolve this issue.

Participants
--------------

23. (SBU) Participants in the e-PINE Political Directors'
Meetings included:

Denmark
Liselotte Plesner, Political Director
William Boe, Deputy Director, European Neighborhood and
Russia Dept.

Estonia
Aivo Orav, Political Director
Tomas Tirs, South Caucasus Desk Officer
Eva-Maria Liimets, Deputy Chief of Mission, Embassy of
Estonia

Finland
Anu Laamanen, Deputy Director General for Political Affairs
Miia Lahti, First Secretary, MFA
Leena Ritola, Minister Counselor, Embassy of Finland

Iceland
Greta Gunnarsdottir, Director-General for Political and
Security Affairs
Olafur Sigurosson, Deputy Chief of Mission, Embassy of Iceland

Latvia
Peteris Ustubs, Political Director
Agnese Kalnina, Deputy Chief of Mission, Embassy of Latvia
Guntis Lapsa, Third Secretary, Americas and Caribbean
Countries Division

Lithuania
Vytautas Leskevicius, Director of Transatlantic Cooperation
and Security Policy
Egidijus Navikas, Head of CSFP Division and Deputy Political
Director
Tomas Gulbinas, Deputy Chief of Mission, Embassy of Lithuania

Norway
Vegard Ellefsen, Political Director
Dag M. Halvorsen, Assistant Director General
Odd-Inge Kvalheim, Minister Counselor, Embassy of Norway

Sweden
Bjorn Lyrvall, Director-General for Political Affairs
Mats Steffansson, Ambassador, Deputy Director-General,
Head of Department for Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Erika Ferrer, Political Counselor, Embassy of Sweden

United States
Daniel Fried, Acting Under Secretary for Political Affairs
Kurt Volker, Acting Assistant Secretary for
European and Eurasian Affairs
Judy Garber, Deputy Assistant Secretary
Matt Bryza, Deputy Assistant Secretary
David Merkel, Deputy Assistant Secretary
Patrick Moon, Deputy Assistant Secretary, SCA
Chat Blakeman, S/I
Bob Gilchrist, Director, Office of Nordic and Baltic Affairs
Nicole Shampaigne, Deputy Director, Office of
Israel and Palestinian Affairs
Julie-Anne Peterson, e-PINE Coordinator

RICE