(U) POLITICAL AND ANTI-AQI DYNAMICS IN DIYALA

S E C R E T STATE 015346 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS PLEASE PASS TO PRTS VIA SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/08/2033 TAGS: PINR IZ SUBJECT: (U) POLITICAL AND ANTI-AQI DYNAMICS IN DIYALA PROVINCE (C-IA8-00041) REF: A. BAGHDAD 003616 ¶B. BAGHDAD 001035 ¶C. BAGHDAD 003901 Classified By: SUZANNE MCCORMICK, DIR., INR/I. REASON: 1.4(C). ¶1. (C/NF) WASHINGTON ANALYSTS WOULD APPRECIATE POSTS' AND PROVINCIAL RECONSTRUCTION TEAM'S INSIGHTS ON THE DYNAMICS IN DIYALA PROVINCE. THE INCREASE IN INSURGENT ACTIVITY AND THE INFLUX OF INSURGENTS LEAVING BAGHDAD AND AL ANBAR, AS WELL AS PREPARATIONS FOR PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS, MAKE DIYALA INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT. TIME AND RESOURCES PERMITTING, ANALYSTS WOULD APPRECIATE GAINING ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON PROVINCIAL LEADERS AND POWERBASES, AS WELL AS THE LEADERSHIP AND VIABILITY OF ANTI-AQI ELEMENTS. WASHINGTON ANALYSTS WELCOME POSTS' CONTINUED REPORTING, TIME AND RESOURCES PERMITTING. THANKS AND BEST REGARDS. ¶A. (U) WHO ARE THE KEY/MOST INFLUENTIAL FIGURES IN THE PROVINCE? ¶B. (U) WHAT PREPARATIONS, IF ANY, HAVE THE POLITICAL PARTIES (SUCH AS THE IIP, SIIC, DA'WA, KDP, PUK) MADE FOR PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS? ¶C. (U) WHO ARE THE LIKELY CANDIDATES FOR LEADERSHIP POSITIONS IN UPCOMING PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS? WHO HAS EXPRESSED INTEREST IN PROVINCIAL-LEVEL POSITIONS? ¶D. (U) HOW OFTEN DOES THE PROVINCIAL COUNCIL MEET/HOLD QUORUM? ¶E. (U) WHAT HAVE KURDISH PARTIES BEEN DOING IN NORTHERN DIYALA TO INCREASE THEIR INFLUENCE? ¶F. (U) WHAT IS THE PROVINCIAL COUNCIL CHAIRMAN SPECIFICALLY DOING TO INCREASE KURDISH INFLUENCE IN THE NORTH? HOW IS HE USING HIS POSITION TO INFLUENCE KURDISH CONTROL IN KHANQIN AND MANDALI? ¶G. (U) HOW HAVE DIYALA SHIA AND SUNNIS REACTED TO KURDISH ACTIVITIES IN DIYALA? ARE ETHNIC GROUPS FORMING MILITIAS TO OPPOSE THE KURDS, OR ARE JAM AND SUNNI INSURGENT GROUPS OR AQI MOVING INTO THE AREA TO CONDUCT ATTACKS AGAINST THE KURDS? ¶H. (U) INFORMATION ON DSC LEADER HAJJI AHMED 1) (U) BIOGRAPHICAL DATA 2) (U) HIS VIEWS ON THE COALITION 3) (U) HIS STRATEGY FOR IMPROVING SECURITY AND COMMUNICATION IN THE PROVINCE 4) (U) HIS RELATIONSHIP WITH PRIME MINISTER MALIKI AND OTHER BAGHDAD OFFICIALS ¶I. (S/REL AUS, CAN, GBR) HOW INFLUENTIAL IS THE REPORTEDLY ANTI-AQI GROUP JAHAFIL WITHIN THE PROVINCE? 1) (S/REL AUS, CAN, GBR) INFORMATION ON JAHAFIL LEADER MAJID AL-HAYALI A) (S/REL AUS, CAN, GBR) BIOGRAPHICAL DATA B) (S/REL AUS, CAN, GBR) HIS VIEWS ON THE COALITION C) (S/REL AUS, CAN, GBR) HIS STRATEGY FOR IMPROVING COMBATING AQI D) (S/REL AUS, CAN, GBR) HIS RELATIONSHIP WITH POLITICAL LEADERS IN DIYALA AND IN BAGHDAD ¶J. (U) WHAT ARE THE IRANIAN INFLUENCE, ACTIVITIES, AND PRESENCE IN THE PROVINCE? ¶K. (U) WHO ARE THE REPRESENTATIVES OF THE MARJA'IYA IN DIYALA? HOW POPULAR ARE THEY? ¶2. (U) PLEASE CITE C-IA8-00041 IN THE SUBJECT LINE OF REPORTING IN RESPONSE TO THE ABOVE QUESTIONS. RICE