Secretary Rice's December 5, 2008 Meeting with

C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 131264 E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2018 TAGS: OVIP RICE CONDOLEEZZA PREL DA SUBJECT: Secretary Rice's December 5, 2008 Meeting with Danish Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen Classified by: Kenneth Merten, Deputy Executive Secretary, S/ES, Department of State. Reason 1.4.(d) ¶1. (U) Participants: U.S. The Secretary Ambassador James Cain A/S Sean McCormack, PA PDAS Marcie Ries, EUR Damon Wilson, NSC Staff John Rath (Embassy Note taker) Denmark Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Prime Minister Kirsten Dybvad, Permanent Secretary of State Ulrik Federspiel, MFA Permanent Secretary Friis Arne Petersen, Danish Ambassador to the U.S. Thomas Ahrenkiel, Under Secretary of State Kaspar Hoeg-Jensen, Head of PM Office Lisbet Zilmer-Johns, PM Chief Advisor Michael Ulveman, PM Press Advisor ¶2. (C) SUMMARY. Danish Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen told the Secretary that Denmark will continue to partner with the United States to promote freedom in Afghanistan. The Secretary briefed on her recent trip to South Asia, stating that the success of our joint efforts in Afghanistan depends greatly on the results of our engagement with Pakistan's civilian government. Rasmussen recounted talks with African leaders on greater international community involvement to stabilize Somalia and halt a possible nexus between terrorists and pirates, and the Secretary floated the idea of Danish participation in a possible Somalia Contact Group of nations with maritime and other interests in the area. Declaring that the EU must break its dependence on imported oil, particularly Russian oil, Rasmussen detailed Danish efforts to broker a new EU energy policy approach. While the Secretary expressed optimism about medium-term prospects for Israeli-Palestinian peace, she cautioned that any attempt to divide Syria from Iran should bear in mind that Syria is a tactical player. END SUMMARY. -------------- Afghanistan and Pakistan -------------- ¶3. (C) Rasmussen stated that the United States is a "permanent ally" because U.S.-Danish friendship is based on common values such as democracy and freedom, and Denmark will continue to partner with the United States to advance shared ideals in troubled places like Afghanistan. He said the international community must not fail in Afghanistan and that Denmark believes Afghanistan needs more international troops and civilian assistance, adding that Denmark has increased its contribution of both in the past year. Rasmussen said the allies should also do a better job of publicizing our accomplishments in improving the lives of Afghan citizens, and should do more to engage Pakistan to stop the cross-border movement of fighters. ¶4. (C) After offering condolences over the recent combat deaths of two Danish soldiers in Afghanistan, the Secretary observed that Afghanistan is one of the world's poorest nations and lacks natural resources and the institutions of a modern state. Our common challenge is to help Afghans build an army and develop greater governmental capacity. Another common challenge is to "get Pakistan right," since Pakistan's domestic terror problem and the cross-border situation have a major impact on Afghanistan. Last week's attacks in Mumbai posed a threat to India-Pakistan relations, to Afghanistan, and to the viability of Pakistan's elected civilian government. ¶5. (C) In reply to the Prime Minister's questions about her trip to India and Pakistan, the Secretary stated that India does not want to take direct action against Pakistan, but Indian leaders are facing a great deal of public anger. As for Pakistan, the Secretary said she had pressed Pakistan leaders privately to take significant action against terrorism such as arresting leaders of Lashkar-e-Taiba, closing terror training camps, and disclosing information about future planned attacks. She said Pakistani officials initially characterized such groups and the Mumbai attackers as non-state actors and demanded proof of linkage. The United States provided such proof and is waiting for Pakistan to take action. ¶6. (C) Rasmussen asked for an assessment of Pakistani government stability, and the Secretary replied that the civilian government has many problems but is not teetering. Rather, its longer-term prospects depend on its ability to break with a decades-long policy of state support for terrorists. She said the Pakistani army chief of staff told her the military would not intervene in politics. In addition to getting a grip on domestic terrorism and the cross-border situation, Pakistan's leaders must also improve the economy. Rasmussen asked if Denmark should increase its assistance to Pakistan. The Secretary stated that the United States was increasing its assistance, particularly in areas like education, and that the United States and the Friends of Pakistan should assuage the fears of Pakistan's elected leaders that the international community will abandon Pakistan as it has done in the past. -------------- Somalia and Piracy -------------- ¶7. (C) Rasmussen noted that he had met recently with Kenyan and Ethiopian leaders to discuss greater international community engagement in Somalia, a failed state that harbors terrorists and maritime pirates who may make common cause if the international community does not soon act. He said African nations are willing to provide troops to an international peacekeeping operation in Somalia, preferably under a UNSC mandate. The Secretary replied that the United States also supports such a mission, but UNDPKO has so far been resistant. She added that the Security Council will likely meet on December 16 to discuss Somalia and a resolution that would clearly spell out authority to arrest, try, and incarcerate pirates. ¶8. (C) The Secretary floated the idea of convening a meeting prior to the UNSC discussion among foreign ministers of a Contact Group of interested nations such as Canada, Saudi Arabia, and others to frame the issues for UNSC deliberation. Rasmussen replied that the Contact Group idea was a good one and that Denmark was eager to resolve legal and jurisdictional questions regarding anti-piracy measures. -------------- Russia -------------- ¶9. (C) Rasmussen stated that Denmark had been prepared to support MAP status for Georgia and Ukraine at the Bucharest summit and still supports the long-term goal of their NATO membership. Denmark will focus on practical steps to prepare the ground for membership in a way that preserves NATO unity and deprives Russia of an excuse for aggression. The Secretary agreed that Russia sensed and sought to exploit division among NATO countries in August. She stated that the best approach is to allow the Georgia and Ukraine commissions to go about their work and thus take pressure off NATO member heads of state and foreign ministers to declare positions on MAP status. Russia gained nothing but isolation from its August aggression. This, along with falling oil prices, has made Russia realize that it is not doing very well. While the United Stastes, Denmark, and other allies should work together to reinforce this perception, we should also recognize that Russia will be trouble for a long time. ¶10. (C) Referring to Russia as a "peculiar democracy," Rasmussen agreed with the Secretary's assessment. He said that Denmark seeks to persuade fellow EU members to stymie Russia's strategic goal of controlling the EU's energy supply. Stating that the EU currently imports 80 percent of its oil from Russia and other sources -- a percentage that will only increase in coming years -- Rasmussen said Denmark is making a major push for announcement of a new EU energy policy approach at next week's EU Summit. The new policy approach will seek to reduce dependence on imported oil, and stress conservation and development of alternative energy sources. He said such a policy statement would send a strong message to the rest of the world as Copenhagen prepares to host the COP-15 conference next December. -------------- Middle East -------------- ¶11. (C) Acknowledging that Israelis and Palestinians will not complete a comprehensive peace agreement this year, the Secretary expressed optimism that ongoing negotiations may produce good results in the medium term. Abu Mazen has made progress in building up governmental and security capacity in the West Bank and, with the continuing support of Arab states, will likely defeat his Hamas rivals who are increasingly beset by internal divisions. In reply to Rasmussen's query about the prospects for a split between Syria and Iran, the Secretary characterized Syria's government as a criminal regime that keeps open all options in order to remain in power. While we can try to separate Syria from Iran, Syria has shown in Lebanon and elsewhere that it is a tactical rather than strategic player. She stated that any attempt to engage Syria should not come at the expense of Lebanon or democratic Palestinian elements. RICE