U.S. AND EU DISCUSS DEVELOPMENTS IN EAST ASIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 STATE 116304 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/23 TAGS: PREL FR EU XB NK CH SUBJECT: U.S. AND EU DISCUSS DEVELOPMENTS IN EAST ASIA REF: USEU 0356 (U) CLASSIFIED BY EAP PDAS GLYN T. DAVIES. REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: U.S. and EU officials held their biannual discussions on East Asia (termed COASI, or Consultations on Asia) in Washington on October 3. In addition to a general review of developments in the region, this session included an exchange of views on the future of India, China, and ASEAN in the evolving global architecture and next steps for cooperation with Central Asia. Under new Japanese PM Aso, Japan's foreign policy and the current trajectory of the U.S.-Japan alliance are likely to remain broadly consistent with past trends. According to the EU, the new Taiwan administration is "step-by-step" in dealing with China to gain more formalized representation in international organizations. Pending assurances from the DPRK on distribution and monitoring, the EU remains interested in better coordinating food aid in the DPRK with the United States and other donors and exchanging information on the NGOs operating in the DPRK. The United States and EU concurred on the lack of progress in Burma and the UN's current role, but disagreed on alternative policy measures such as sanctions. EU representatives saw increased sanctions as ineffective in Burma's case. U.S. and EU officials also discussed developments elsewhere in Southeast Asia such as Indonesia, the Philippines, Cambodia, Thailand, Vietnam, and the future trajectory of ASEAN. END SUMMARY. -------------- STRATEGIC ISSUES: INDIA, CHINA, AND ASEAN -------------- ¶2. (C) REGIONAL ISSUES: EU officials opened the working lunch (joint with EAP and SCA officials) by asking how the United States organized its South and Central Asia policy and how Afghanistan fit into U.S. policy towards Central Asia. SCA PDAS Donald Camp acknowledged that, after establishing the SCA Bureau, some officials in Central Asia initially had seemed disappointed to be subsumed into the bureau that covers South Asia. Both U.S. and EU officials discussed the next steps for economic cooperation with Central Asia, with an expected upcoming regional conference on food and energy security convened by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in November 2008. EU officials sought U.S. views of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and potential U.S. observership. ¶3. (C) Moving to Southeast Asian regional organizations, EU Commission Director James Moran noted that Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) officials had visited the EU many times to better understand two critical achievements of the EU: reducing historic animosities and opening a common market. ASEAN's new charter was far from creating an EU-style common market, but intra-ASEAN trade had now reached a critical mass -- roughly one-third of trade of member countries is among ASEAN nations (the same level of European countries in the 1970s). There might now be real opportunities for economic integration. ¶4. (C) INDIA AND GLOBAL ARCHITECTURE: In discussing the great powers of Asia - India, China, Japan - an EU official lamented that most European leaders thought only in economic, not geostrategic, terms. French Director for Asia Francois Descoueyte wondered whether India would follow China's path of integration into the global system and onto the world stage. More broadly, EU officials proffered that an emerging global system would have six major groups - a "P-6" involving the EU, United States, China, India, Japan, and Russia. G etting to that future global architecture, all agreed, would be extremely difficult. -------------- -------------- JAPANESE POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS, TAIWAN and CHINA -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) JAPAN: Descoueyte opined that, under new Japanese PM Aso, Japan's foreign policy would be somewhat similar, but perhaps more pro-active and right-wing. How Aso balanced the Japanese political elites and the will of the public would remain essential for his success. Descoueyte also queried U.S. officials on whether the U.S.-Japan alliance might change under Aso. ¶6. (C) EAP PDAS Glyn Davies and EAP DAS Alex Arvizu noted "all eyes are now on Aso." While Aso sought longevity in his Prime Ministership, the turbulent Japanese political system might not allow for a long tenure. "Small things" could introduce serious political controversy into the system, and many in the Japanese public did not trust some of the political elites. The United States was in the midst of a major realignment of forces in Japan and in the region and would continue to work closely with the GOJ on that effort. DAS Arvizu noted that since Japan would likely continue to have weak STATE 00116304 002 OF 003 governments in the near term, we could not expect major new diplomatic initiatives from Tokyo. He suggested that the United States and EU focus on small, practical regional issues when dealing with the Japanese. Participants observed that if Japan were to obtain a permanent Security Council seat, Tokyo might be surprised by how tough some of the decisions would be, especially in authorizing the use of force. ¶7. (C) TAIWAN: Descoueyte noted that the new Taiwan administration was "step-by-step" trying to gain more formalized representation in international organizations. Moran felt that perhaps Taiwan could find some level of representation in the WHO. Some in the international community, and certainly China, worried that Taiwan might abuse its new international space and "make an issue" out of its limited role once it was defined. EAP Acting DAS John Norris noted that unless China showed more flexibility on the issue of international space, there would likely be no movement by others in the international community. Norris also took the opportunity to preview for the EU the pending announcement of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan to occur later that day. ¶8. (C) S/P staff James Green spoke to the need for EU help in urging China to coordinate its foreign assistance more in places like Africa. Descoueyte felt trilateral cooperation between donors could provide an opening for greater coordination and transparency. -------------- KOREAN PENINSULA -------------- ¶9. (C) Descoueyte relayed known French details about the health of Kim Jong-il. The EU remained interested in better coordinating food aid in the DPRK with the United States and other donors and exchanging information on the NGOs operating in the DPRK. Descoueyte stated that the North Korean people are devastated and hurting. He wondered why the international community made "so much noise" about Burma, but less so about the DPRK. Moran noted that this year's harvest in the DPRK is rumored to be less plentiful than in years past. The EU needed assurances from the DPRK regarding the distribution and monitoring of food aid before EU commitments of aid. ¶10. (C) In response to Descoueyte's relay of the Chinese view that the Six-Party Talks process is "up to Washington," Davies responded that we must continue to gain movement from the DPRK on key issues. The United States had shown flexibility throughout the process. EAP/K Director Kurt Tong noted that the World Food Program and U.S. NGOs, supported by the United States, had negotiated over the past year a monitoring program to facilitate U.S. food aid of 500,000 tons over 10 months. The EU was welcome to operate under the agreement. The United States would likely reexamine its food aid commitments in the spring of 2009, following the results of the 2008 harvest. Tong also updated the EU on U.S. and ROK legislative processes in approving the U.S.-ROK Free Trade Agreement. -------------- BURMA AND SOUTHEAST ASIA -------------- ¶11. (C) BURMA: The United States and EU concurred on the lack of progress in Burma, but diffed on the utility of policy measures such as sanctions. In discussing the role of the UN, both parties held that UN special representative Ibrahim Gambari's activities did not seem to produce significant results in pressing for political dialogue and political prisoner releases. ¶12. (C) Internally, EU member-states did not agree on the utility of sanctions or their effectiveness. Descoueyte claimed that sanctions in the past had not borne any fruit and Moran mentioned it could even hurt business interests. Czech Director for Asia and the Pacific Jiri Sitler argued that sanctions held a symbolic meaning. Despite this, the EU did not have a position on an alternative approach to increasing sanctions. Still, Moran wondered how a foreign assistance-oriented approach focusing on Millenium Development Goals would unfold in the future. Descoueyte was not convinced of the merits of the non-paper proposed by UK for a new diplomatic approach, including what he characterized as the UK's overly high expectation for free and fair elections by 2010. The EU would discuss Burma topics with Asian countries during the Asia-Europe Summit at the end of October in China. ¶13. (C) EAP/MLS Director Steve Blake gave a brief overview of U.S. views on the situation in Burma. PDAS Davies maintained that sanctions work when a clear target is defined; they send a clear message, and they prevent Burma from pursuing nefarious deals. Aung San Suu Kyi's demand for continued sanctions made a case for their utility as well. ¶14. (C) SOUTHEAST ASIA: On Thailand, Moran said the new prime minister seemed credible although the People's Alliance for Democracy STATE 00116304 003 OF 003 (PAD) still "made some noise" regarding his appointment. Descoueyte said Thailand would stabilize as long as the current king, now 81 years old, stayed in power and retained unanimous support from the public and the army. On Vietnam, Moran said that remnants of the old regime, including human rights issues, made it difficult for foreign countries to engage Vietnam economically. Descoueyte congratulated the United States on recently providing funds to the Khmer Rouge Trials in Cambodia. Speaking to the situation in Aceh, Moran said it might be difficult to hold elections peacefully without an international monitoring team. However, it might be inappropriate for the EU to participate in an election monitoring team due to the EU's high degree of involvement in the peace process. Moran speculated on the possibility that the Aceh Peace Agreement might go "belly up" if elections went poorly. ¶15. (C) PDAS Davies pointed out the important role of Thailand's military as key for the country to accept any fundamental political shifts. On peace efforts in the southern Philippines, EAP/MTS Director Kamala Lakhdir attributed the recent breakdown of the peace agreement in Kuala Lumpur to the failure of parliamentarians, local leaders, and President Arroyo. The decision about whether to accept an agreement now resides with the Philippine Supreme Court. On upcoming elections in Indonesia, Lakhdhir acknowledged Indonesia's record of holding elections successfully in the recent past. The United States would take that record into account when considering whether to provide U.S. assistance for the elections. ¶16. (C) REGIONAL ARCHITECTURE AND ASEAN: Moran maintained that discussions on regional frameworks made sense so long as there was seriousness on the part of ASEAN member countries, and that substantial matters would continue to be dealt with on a bilateral basis. PDAS Davies spoke favorably of ASEAN Secretary-General Surin Pitsuwan and the improving cooperation between ASEAN and the United States. EAP/RSP Director Blair Hall mentioned that Indonesia and Thailand, the last two countries that had not ratified the ASEAN Charter, would soon overcome legislative delays in ratification. This would pave the way for the Charter's passage at the December ASEAN Summit. The United States hoped to cooperate closely with ASEAN, but in the background, on the design of its Human Rights Body. Hall also mentioned there was a general sense that the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) should move beyond traditional security issues and focus more on concrete transnational security issues including disaster relief, maritime security and nonproliferation. ¶17. PARTICIPANTS United States: Glyn Davies, EAP PDAS Alex Arvizu, EAP DAS Scot Marciel, EAP DAS John Norris, EAP DAS, Acting Blair Hall, EAP/RSP Director Kamala Lakhdir, EAP/MTS Director Steve Blake, EAP/MLS Director Kurt Tong, EAP/K Director David Shear, EAP/CM Director James Green, S/P Staff Donald Camp, SCA PDAS Evan Feigenbaum, SCA DAS George Krol, SCA DAS Jack Spillsbury, SCA/RA Director European Union Troika: -- French Presidency: Francois Descouetye, Director for Asia and Oceania Jean-Noel Ladois, European Cooperation Bureau Etienne de Gonneville, French Embassy --EU Commission: James Moran, Director DG Relex Asia Denis Chaibi, Desk Officer for India Laszlo Deak, Political Counselor, EC Delegation in Washington -- EU Council Secretariat: Francesco Presutti, Asia Task Force, Acting Head of Unit Tim Eestermans, Counselor for Afghanistan, Pakistan, Horizontal Issues -- Incoming Czech Presidency Jiri Sitler, Director for Asia and Pacific RICE