C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 114173

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2018
TAGS: KNEI PREL EUR BO GG RS UP XG SW NO LG LH IC EN FI
DA, AF, IZ, MD
SUBJECT: NORDIC AND BALTIC POLITICAL DIRECTORS, OCTOBER 2
CONSULTATIONS IN VILNIUS

Classified By: Classified by EUR Assistant Secretary Daniel Fried,
Reasons: 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. On October 2, political directors and other
senior officials from the nine members of the Expanded
Partnership
in Northern Europe (E-PINE), including EUR Assistant
Secretary Dan
Fried, met in Vilnius for semi-annual consultations. The
principal
issues discussed were Georgia, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova,
Iraq, and
Afghanistan. On Georgia, PolDirs exchanged views on how best
to
support that country's territorial integrity and democratic
processes.
With respect to Belarus, they agreed that the recent
elections
were disappointing, but that too much isolation might only
serve
to force the GOB closer to Russia. The participants shared
concerns
over the political infighting in Ukraine, as well as over the
possibility of Russian subversion in the Crimea. They
concurred that
5 2 format remained the best way forward for Moldova.
Participants
reviewed the positive trends in Iraq, as well as recent areas
of
concern in Afghanistan, which they agreed reflected in part
the
need for stronger government institutions. The U.S. will
host
the next e-PINE Political Directors' meeting in Washington
in 2009. End Summary.

Georgia
--------------

2. (C) Swedish Political Director Bjorn Lyrvall led off the
discussion on Georgia noting that Russia had failed to
achieve
its primary goal there, i.e. regime change. He said it is
important to maintain pressure on Russia to abide by the
terms
of the ceasefire. He stressed the need to show support for
Georgia, and to ensure Ministerial-level attendance at the

October 22 donor conference. Getting observers into the
disputed
regions is also very important. The EU should work towards
rollover
to international observers in South Ossetia and Abkhazia,
adding that
Russian demands for restrictions on Georgian military and
police
movement are unacceptable. He emphasized that business as
usual
with Russia is not possible.


3. (C) A/S Fried agreed that regime change was the ultimate
goal
of the Russian invasion and that while the GOR had failed for
now,
it is unlikely to give up. It is therefore important to
shore up
the Georgian economy, help stabilize the political system,
keep
pressure on the GOG to reform and strengthen its democratic
institutions, and to strengthen the military so Georgia can
defend
itself. Russia and Georgia must be treated equally at
negotiations;
it should be clear that South Ossetia and Abkhazia are not on
the
same footing as Georgia. Should Russia pull out of
uncontested
Georgia, then the acute phase of the crisis will be over. It
is
important to find a way forward that prevents Russia from
shoring
up any gains.


4. (C) Estonian Political Director Kull noted that there are
challenges ahead in maintaining Georgia's territorial
integrity
and in ensuring EU cooperation. The problem is that not all
EU
members agree about what needs to be done, especially on visa
facilitation. Danish Political Director Damsgaard agreed
that
there is a need to stress territorial integrity, and that the
EU
mandate concerns the whole of Georgia, including the
contested areas.


5. (C) Latvian Political Director Usubs was most concerned
about
the October 15 international talks on security and stability
in
the Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as
provided
for in the September 8 Sarkozy-Medvedev agreement. He
worried that
Russia will pressure CIS countries, especially those with a
need
for energy, to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The
engagement
of the EU in monitoring missions lends an element of
credibility.
Finland's Vierros agreed that the EU presence is welcome; she
found
it worrisome, however, that monitors are still having trouble
accessing South Ossetia.


6. (C) A/S Fried reiterated that the August ceasefire should
not be renegotiated - the six point plan calls for Russia's
withdrawal to the lines of August 7. If Russia shows it is
serious in the October 15 conference, then we can respond
seriously.
If they are non-compliant, then we still have something to
talk
about. However, if Russia wastes everyone's time with talk
of no fly zones and arms embargoes, then we'll know how to
respond to that as well. We will not accept arrangements
where South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Georgia are treated as
equals - they are not. Russia may be testing the limits of
the
international community to see whether it can turn the
meetings
into a circus. On the other hand, Russia itself may not know
what it wants.


7. (C) Denmark's Damsgaard opined that the issue of MAP
probably
will not be solved in December for either Georgia or Ukraine
and that there is a need to think constructively about how
to get around that problem. Estonian Political Director Kull
was also concerned about Georgia's prospects for MAP
in December, as some countries that had previously been
supportive
are now hesitant. A/S Fried said that MAP is the right thing
to do
and that the U.S. is supportive. Norwegian PolDir Ellefsen
mentioned
that there will probably be no agreement in December and that
the
allies will need to be creative, not confrontational. It is
also
important that Russia understand that its actions have
instilled
fear in its neighbors.

Belarus
--------------

8. (C) E-PINE participants largely concurred that
notwithstanding
some positive developments in Belarus, the recent elections
were disappointing. A/S Fried noted the USG had responded
quickly
to the release of political prisoners by temporarily lifting
the sanctions on some companies and sending DAS Merkel to
Minsk. Pavilionis thought that isolating the regime too much
would be a strategic mistake; most other e-PINE countries
supported
limited engagement with civil society groups, the opposition,
and
mid-level officials as a means to break Belarusian isolation.

All thought that it was important to offer Belarus
alternatives to
dependence on Russia, but were hesitant to do much more for
fear of
rewarding bad behavior.

Ukraine
--------------

9. (C) The Ukraine discussion focused on continued domestic
political turmoil, the need for reform, and the potential
for instability in Crimea. Damsgaard noted that Ukraine
needs to realize there is more to democracy than holding
free and fair elections, adding that the GOU's constant
internal power struggles undermined effective governance.
Turning to the issue of NATO membership, A/S Fried pointed
out that although Ukraine is ambivalent about being issued
a MAP, its increasing engagement with the EU is a good thing.

He expressed concern about possible Russian subversion in
Crimea,
adding that there is a need for more social programs
and investment there and the Russians should not be allowed
to
operate freely. Lyrvall suggested that although getting
observers
into Crimea would be very difficult, it would not be a bad
idea
to set up EU information offices to get visitors into the
area.
Pavilionis continued to urge MAP for Ukraine, fearing
that talk of compromise at this stage would leave ministers
nothing to discuss in December.

Moldova
--------------

10. (C) Vierros began the discussion on Moldova, saying that
the OSCE's overall objective at present is formal 5 2
negotiations. Romania would like to be integrated into the
format, but its participation should be channeled through
the EU. Russian influence in Transnistria is increasing
and they are trying to re-launch their 2003 federation plan.
A/S Fried said that Moldova should not feel compelled to
adopt
a plan that is bad for the country, reiterating USG support
for the 5 2 talks. The Moldovan constitution ensures
neutrality
and the USG is not needed as a guarantor of that. If that is
what Moldova wants, then it is their choice; neutrality is no
hindrance to bilateral cooperation. Lyrvall noted that the
EU needs
to make Moldova an attractive option for Transnistria and
that
the EU can be helpful in that regard through an enhanced
agreement and confidence-building measures. Pavilionis
thought
that Moldova is a partial success and that now is the time
for
the EU to get serious and complete its mandate, to prolong
EUBAM
and develop its role. The EU also needs to be ready to
develop
a civilian mission there.

Iraq
--------------

11. (C) Estonia's Kull led off the Iraq discussion, noting
that
the on-going conflict is a challenge to trans-Atlantic
relations,
counter-terrorism efforts, and Muslim-Christian relations.
He
was pleased the GOI is more able to control the security
situation
now, but questioned how it will do when the number of foreign
troops decreases. The Maliki government's pressure to limit
foreign
troops is creating problems reaching agreement on the SOFA
and
he expressed hope that this will be resolved by the end of
the year.
A/S Fried thanked the e-PINE countries for their various
contributions.

Afghanistan
--------------

12. (C) Ellefsen led the discussion, noting the increasing
pessimism in Kabul, which he said pointed to the need for
stronger government institutions and more coordination.
A/S Fried said that there are a number of problems that
must be tackled including better civil-military coordination
and the need for a stronger coalition. He emphasized the need
to support the Afghan military as it expands and that the USG
has asked most of the e-PINE countries to contribute to that
effort. We appreciate the efforts of contributors and know
that there are many challenges ahead. Lithuania agreed with
A/S Fried's assessment of the situation and thanked the U.S.
for its assistance with their PRT in Ghor Province and the
Swedes for their assistance on the Herat road feasibility
study.

Participants
--------------

13. (U) Participants:

Denmark

A. Carsten Damsgaard Political Director
William Boe Deputy Director,
European Neighborhood and Russia Dept.

Estonia
Clyde Kull Political Director
Jaan Salulaid Counselor

Finland
Pilvi-Sisko Vierros Political Director
Sari Rautio First Secretary

Iceland
Nikilas Hannigan Deputy Political Director

Latvia
Peteris Ustubs Political Director
Kristaps Brusbardis European Correspondent

Lithuania
Zygimantas Pavilionis Political Director
Egidijus Navikas European Correspondent

Norway
Vegard Ellefsen Political Director
Stephanie Bjoro Senior Executive Officer

Sweden
Bjorn Lyrvall Director-General for Political Affairs
Anna Hammarlund Blixt European Correspondent

United States
Daniel Fried Assistant Secretary for European
and Eurasian Affairs
Joseph Boski Political Officer, Embassy Vilnius
Julie-Anne Peterson e-PINE Coordinator, EUR/NB
RICE